Donkey Oaty
Member
- Location
- Aberdeenshire
I copied this from the latest Gleadell Market report where it is one of the "bear" factors affecting the market. It sounds like propaganda to me.
I thought that, however, I would have thought it was counter productive for the country to talk their yields up, surely they would be better to put propaganda out to increase grain prices and hence the income stream into their country?
C B
I thought that, however, I would have thought it was counter productive for the country to talk their yields up, surely they would be better to put propaganda out to increase grain prices and hence the income stream into their country?
C B
The statement was released by the Ukrainian government or by a state run service.Whose country...........!
It would be grim harvest if they come short enough to not meet domestic demand, current thinking by most independent forecasters is an exportable surplus of circa 28-32 million ton, almost 50% of their forecast production. But of course it could all be big cover up by the Russians/USA (insert who you like) etc to trick the grain market.Or talk up yields knowing they have a poor harvest, world prices drop as a result and they then cover their shortfall in the market at the reduced price. Once market realises that the Ukraine harvest is poor the world price rises but Ukraine has covered their needs already. This is a classic scenario. Only really works when the country knows that the harvest is so bad they can't supply enough for their domestic demand internally.
Agreed, highly unlikely to expect such a poor harvest that they can't supply domestic demand.It would be grim harvest if they come short enough to not meet domestic demand, current thinking by most independent forecasters is an exportable surplus of circa 28-32 million ton, almost 50% of their forecast production. But of course it could all be big cover up by the Russians/USA (insert who you like) etc to trick the grain market.
C B
It would be grim harvest if they come short enough to not meet domestic demand, current thinking by most independent forecasters is an exportable surplus of circa 28-32 million ton, almost 50% of their forecast production. But of course it could all be big cover up by the Russians/USA (insert who you like) etc to trick the grain market.
C B
Not at all, I forgot to put the smileys after my quoteDo you really think that Putin imagines that he can pull off another Great Grain Robbery like his communist predecessors did in the 1970s? Information is much too good these days IMO. There's too many short positions in USA to suggest any such trickery by the market players. Perhaps Putin is planning on annexing Ukraine grain stores...
We were heading for record harvest in 2012 at this time of year.
Not at all, I forgot to put the smileys after my quote