What % of winter crops not planted or destroyed

[WRXppp]

Barley sown 3 weeks ago is up in the drill, sat on a big slab of limestone but I was surprised how well it ploughed and drilled, was back to slop a week ago but was well rooted and chitted and is even coming through nicely in the corners where there is the odd puddle today after last nights top up, one thing I have noticed though the Bolton had “Vibrance Duo” dressing on it and is 2 days ahead of the Caravelle which had no V’ Duo, bangers out on the Caravelle tomorrow as it is noticeable how much more the crows have been on it than the Bolton right next door.

 

[farmbrew]

So everybody seems to be ploughing up and combi drilling. I thought I had better have a go, so pulled up a block untouched stubble.
I could force it but fear I will do more damage than good.
250 kg/ha of seed isn't cheap, it'll sit there for over a month before it emerges, crows will be hitting it and thinning it out.
Tuff patches will probably rot off and I will have to look at half a crop for the rest of the year.
I am trying to be patient, hoping for weather to break it down and drill in better conditions Jan/feb, surely it can't stay so wet much longer.
Feel as though I should be cracking on but don't want to make a b*ll*cks of it.
I need reassuring that I am doing the right thing but feel free to take the p*ss that I only have 20% drilled.

 

[teslacoils]

If I could turn land over, and had spring corn in the shed to dress, I'd be doing that. We're now well into "loss management" territory.

 

[PSQ]

Quick question: for those who are still sowing or trying, who actually thinks their December sown (or November /January) crop is going to be profitable?
Assume a realistic minimum half tonne loss in yield to the acre compared to optimum yielding September sowing, you're growing a crop thats going to lose money on every acre.
Potentially a lot of money, firefighting a crop on the back foot all the way to harvest, just so you can do what you've always done ("aye been").
Even those that "need the feed and straw", surely the economics is at the point where it's cheaper to buy it in than to grow a loss making crop?

Sorry to say it, but forcing a late crop with input prices at record levels, and output prices heading through the floor, is crackers.

 

[DrWazzock]

If we ploughed up wet stubbles here on the heavier ground now it would smear the furrow bottom, prevent drainage and create an instant pan. Even ploughing has to be done when it’s reasonably dry surely? And then power harrowing in that state would turn it in wet cobbles, or a hopeless seedbed. We might get away with it on the sand.
The only year we drilled winter wheat late was the dry winter of 2018 when we drilled on sand after beet and sheep. It did very well but was one of those flukes of weather and timing that rarely happens. Here, if it’s not in by mid October then normally, and especially when it’s as wet as this year, it’s just not worth bothering.

 

[Phil P]

Quick question: for those who are still sowing or trying, who actually thinks their December sown (or November /January) crop is going to be profitable?
Assume a realistic minimum half tonne loss in yield to the acre compared to optimum yielding September sowing, you're growing a crop thats going to lose money on every acre.
Potentially a lot of money, firefighting a crop on the back foot all the way to harvest, just so you can do what you've always done ("aye been").
Even those that "need the feed and straw", surely the economics is at the point where it's cheaper to buy it in than to grow a loss making crop?

Sorry to say it, but forcing a late crop with input prices at record levels, and output prices heading through the floor, is crackers.

As with most years it will come down to the weather, I’ve seen fantastic autumn sown crops drought off in the spring and crappy late sown mauled in crops breaking records. It all depends what happens in the spring. Can’t do anything if it’s sat in a bag!
We’re fortunate that we have quite a bit of light land that will plough and sow, any heavy clay soils have been written off now.
The only trouble we’ve got at the moment is it’s too frozen before dinner to get going. Managed to get another 60ac in over the past couple of days though in good order and hopefully another 25ac today when we get going.

 

[David.]

I have good neighbours relying in us for straw. That was a bit of a driver for me.
That and a deep mistrust of anything NE or Govt inspired.

 

[DrWazzock]

I have good neighbours relying in us for straw. That was a bit of a driver for me.
That and a deep mistrust of anything NE or Govt inspired.

Determination not to end up in a scheme was a big motivator to get it drilled here .. rightly or wrongly. I’m not sure prices will be anything special after next harvest however much reduced U.K. output is. There is just too much grain pouring out of Ukraine and other areas with lower costs and arguably better climates and soils. I will say that carrying on cropping does at least allow me to keep on top of pernicious weeds and keep the ground clean. Any kind of option here that precludes the use of herbicides just seems to result a fair build up of rubbish that is very difficult to deal with.

 

[teslacoils]

We would be looking at 3t/AC max for wheat sown now. Tbh the stuff that went in earlier and is now looking pretty crap will not do more. Im not stoked about going down the SFI route, but youve got to do what you need to do to keep the ££££ flowing in. Watching your shed of grain get less valuable every day, when youve spent a year growing it just reduces my enthusiasm. Will be down to 130ac crops next year. Even I cant justify to Mrs Teslacoils that I need to be at home to look after that.

 

[bankrupt]

As with most years it will come down to the weather, I’ve seen fantastic autumn sown crops drought off in the spring and crappy late sown mauled in crops breaking records.

Same here.

Two-way bet on spring drought and yet another wet summer.

 

[Bossfarmer]

Quick question: for those who are still sowing or trying, who actually thinks their December sown (or November /January) crop is going to be profitable?
Assume a realistic minimum half tonne loss in yield to the acre compared to optimum yielding September sowing, you're growing a crop thats going to lose money on every acre.
Potentially a lot of money, firefighting a crop on the back foot all the way to harvest, just so you can do what you've always done ("aye been").
Even those that "need the feed and straw", surely the economics is at the point where it's cheaper to buy it in than to grow a loss making crop?

Sorry to say it, but forcing a late crop with input prices at record levels, and output prices heading through the floor, is crackers.

input prices were at record levels last year so how can the be record for H24 when my fert bill will prob be half?

 

[farmbrew]

I bought enough expensive N to last 2 years thinking there may be a shortage
Just can't seem to get anything right these days

 

[Renaultman]

We would be looking at 3t/AC max for wheat sown now. Tbh the stuff that went in earlier and is now looking pretty crap will not do more. Im not stoked about going down the SFI route, but youve got to do what you need to do to keep the ££££ flowing in. Watching your shed of grain get less valuable every day, when youve spent a year growing it just reduces my enthusiasm. Will be down to 130ac crops next year. Even I cant justify to Mrs Teslacoils that I need to be at home to look after that.

Is she going to send you out to work? Welcome to my world.

 

[Boysground]

Finally finished today, snowing on me yesterday and blocked the drill in a very sticky patch the day before. This last field i was rained off on the 18th October.

went well in the frost this morning. Just need to find a whole day to wash the tractor and drill.

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[teslacoils]

Is she going to send you out to work? Welcome to my world.

Farm cannot keep her, alas. It's not like we've not had tricky years before. But this autumn has put a lot of plans on hold.

 

[Renaultman]

Farm cannot keep her, alas. It's not like we've not had tricky years before. But this autumn has put a lot of plans on hold.

I have to do lots of little bits to earn a crust, a bit of farming, a bit of contracting, relief driving, digger driving, anything to turn a shilling.

 

[Renaultman]

Finally finished today, snowing on me yesterday and blocked the drill in a very sticky patch the day before. This last field i was rained off on the 18th October.

View attachment 1151027

went well in the frost this morning. Just need to find a whole day to wash the tractor and drill.

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I've only had my own Vaderstad for a few years and it never ceased to amaze me how it can put seed in the ground in adverse conditions.

 

[teslacoils]

I have to do lots of little bits to earn a crust, a bit of farming, a bit of contracting, relief driving, digger driving, anything to turn a shilling.

Yup. I do a lot of voluntary work, but that's going to have to take a pause to get the pennies flowing while fields are flooded and interest rates are biting.

 

[Boysground]

I've only had my own Vaderstad for a few years and it never ceased to amaze me how it can put seed in the ground in adverse conditions.

You soon learn how far you can take them, it can be horrible to unblock. This one was new to me in the spring, has seed eye on it which is definitely spinning my brain. First 6m, going slower is definitely better for my back.

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[Wombat]

Still have only had 48hrs dry in one block here since Babet and yesterdays snow is melting and its sopping so wouldn;t matter what conditions were it wouldn't go