What % of winter crops not planted or destroyed

[Wombat]

Huge cuts to wheat and rapeseed plantings for harvest 2024 - Farmers Weekly

Delayed spring plantings due to the rain and extensive damage to winter crops which did make it into the ground suggest the UK is facing the smallest

www.fwi.co.uk

Ahdb finally dropping their numbers. Interestingly, grain rep today was thinking closer to 8mt than 9.....

Still think they are being by optimistic

also think his last line is ridiculous, we could see a return to inflationary pressures. So wheat is 27% lower than pre war, I don’t see anything dropping other than wheat so how exactly is wheat adding to inflation. Even at 220 it will still be what it was pre war which would be a real time drop in wheat inflation.

 

[teslacoils]

Yup. I wonder what, apart from wheat is cheaper than it was before the start of not-ww3.

 

[e3120]

Yup. I wonder what, apart from wheat is cheaper than it was before the start of not-ww3.

I suspect gas (& fert) might be. It was well off and running off the back of covid restart, before the double whammy and a brilliant scapegoat.

I think urea was £690 in Jan '22.

 

[glasshouse]

Agrii rep today said wheat area down by 500,000 ha
To 1.25m ha
Will it average 7t?
Some crops looking very sick now

 

[teslacoils]

Don't know what it's like elsewhere, but there's naff all winter barley for miles here, and the one bit I've seen looks complete shyte.

 

[farmerm]

Huge cuts to wheat and rapeseed plantings for harvest 2024 - Farmers Weekly

Delayed spring plantings due to the rain and extensive damage to winter crops which did make it into the ground suggest the UK is facing the smallest

www.fwi.co.uk

Ahdb finally dropping their numbers. Interestingly, grain rep today was thinking closer to 8mt than 9.....

Still taking out their arse!

 

[farmerm]

Don't know what it's like elsewhere, but there's naff all winter barley for miles here, and the one bit I've seen looks complete shyte.

That’s the one thing I do have but price is that shyt I almost wish it had failed too 🫤

 

[teslacoils]

I'm equally dubious that 3m tons will be carried over ...

 

[Old apprentice]

Will traders be buying wheat just to put in store for after harvest.

 

[Renaultman]

Will traders be buying wheat just to put in store for after harvest.

End users are, but also tying Maize contracts up, if the figures that @Full of bull(s) was quoting. They'd be mad not to.
I personally think the market is well down but I'm not expecting it to sky rocket either.

 

[warksfarmer]

Huge cuts to wheat and rapeseed plantings for harvest 2024 - Farmers Weekly

Delayed spring plantings due to the rain and extensive damage to winter crops which did make it into the ground suggest the UK is facing the smallest

www.fwi.co.uk

Ahdb finally dropping their numbers. Interestingly, grain rep today was thinking closer to 8mt than 9.....

Still verbal diarrhoea. They just don't want the market to rocket because they dont really work for farmers. They work for the government who try their hardest to suppress food inflation. Of whats planted it'll be well under the national yield average of 3.3t/acre. 2.5-2.8t at best. I'm going with at least 30% down on uk wheat tonnes.

 

[ajd132]

Still verbal diarrhoea. They just don't want the market to rocket because they dont really work for farmers. They work for the government who try their hardest to suppress food inflation. Of whats planted it'll be well under the national yield average of 3.3t/acre. 2.5-2.8t at best. I'm going with at least 30% down on uk wheat tonnes.

I think you’re right. Overall yields are going to be way down. I have some decent crops and some poorer ones. We drilled early and got everything drilled up. Without blowing my own trumpet too much I think our crops are generally some of the better in the area, and our area seems to have more winter crops planted than other places in the country I have driven through. There is a lot of patchy and/or thin crops especially second wheat about around here, me included.
at the moment I suspect wheat after beans may just do 9t/ha, wheat after oats 7.5-8.5 and second wheat 7 if we’re lucky.
I drove through the fens recently and was shocked at what a disaster they looked.

 

[BrianV]

Every now & then there are advantages to growing barley on the slopes of Dartmoor, if only they all looked like this.

 

[warksfarmer]

I think you’re right. Overall yields are going to be way down. I have some decent crops and some poorer ones. We drilled early and got everything drilled up. Without blowing my own trumpet too much I think our crops are generally some of the better in the area, and our area seems to have more winter crops planted than other places in the country I have driven through. There is a lot of patchy and/or thin crops especially second wheat about around here, me included.
at the moment I suspect wheat after beans may just do 9t/ha, wheat after oats 7.5-8.5 and second wheat 7 if we’re lucky.
I drove through the fens recently and was shocked at what a disaster they looked.

Couple of journeys I've done recently M42, M40, M4 and then back through the cotswolds and it did not look good at all for combinables. Grass looked ok though. A5 to wales and again very poor looking crops and lots of unplanted land presently. M6 to carlise and back and again very poor either side of the motorway and lastly A5, M69, A47 grass looked good but everything else crap. The AHDB say stuff like this and wonder why their popularity is at an all time low. We all know what they are upto and fed up with it. They take our money for doing nothing then shaft us like this with made up desktop figures to keep food prices down.

 

[Surgery]

Couple of journeys I've done recently M42, M40, M4 and then back through the cotswolds and it did not look good at all for combinables. Grass looked ok though. A5 to wales and again very poor looking crops and lots of unplanted land presently. M6 to carlise and back and again very poor either side of the motorway and lastly A5, M69, A47 grass looked good but everything else crap. The AHDB say stuff like this and wonder why their popularity is at an all time low. We all know what they are upto and fed up with it. They take our money for doing nothing then shaft us like this with made up desktop figures to keep food prices down.

Been quite apparent for quite awhile and let’s be honest they are only a puppet , Someone pulling the strings and they need cutting off

 

[yellow belly]

500000 is a bigger reduction than 2020

normal carry over of wheat on july 1 is 2000000
3 million is on a par with 2020

there is not a lot unexpected in those figures some of use were predicting this in october as we did in october 2019

 

[yellow belly]

looking back at early bird survey

most year the autumn ebs is very close to the eventual area planted

but in 2020 the autumn ebs said 1.631 then when repeated 1.504 actual harvested was 1.387
this year the autumn ebs said 1.66 then repeated 1.463 so what is the actual going to be

1.35 from the 2020 result or nearer to the 1.46

not got any figures prior to 2016
would be interesting to see 2013 2001 1987 1982 1992 which were all difficult prior autumns

the surveying may have changed

 

[teslacoils]

My planted area, multiplied by my average yield would have been 605t
On todays view, my expected output from what I will keep looks around 182t
Thats assuming none goes through a forager.

While I accept that this part of the country has had a perfect storm of shocking rain, heavy soil, flat topograhy, delayed drilling practices, and inability to get autumn residuals on, I think it would be fair to say that very large areas of clayland or low lying land in the region looks poor.

 

[yellow belly]

My planted area, multiplied by my average yield would have been 605t
On todays view, my expected output from what I will keep looks around 182t
Thats assuming none goes through a forager.

While I accept that this part of the country has had a perfect storm of shocking rain, heavy soil, flat topograhy, delayed drilling practices, and inability to get autumn residuals on, I think it would be fair to say that very large areas of clayland or low lying land in the region looks poor.

so you are unfortunately part of the planting to harvest reduction

which nation wide was 130000 ha in 2020 the weather is worse than 2020 especially between peterbough and the humber

in 2020 i lost none from planting to harvest but ib 2013 i lost 50%
in 2024 i will be none but did pull the plug on planting on october 2 as the soil was too wet to take any risk

the other big question how much of the unplanted will be spring cropped for harvest
spring barley surveyed at 880000 ha 2020 was 1 million

there are sfi actions that pay more or just fallow for break into wheat

 

[robbie]

I must say that having traveled from Barton mills to the north Norfolk coast in the last few days and up to west Norfolk just about everything looks very well.
There's a lot of unplanted ground but most of that will be either beet or AD maize or veg.

The whole area where crops look good is lightland as you'd expect.
We could still quite easily finish up with bugger all because when it does stop raining it'll forget how to and I reckon most of what does look good at the minute will be knackered if we get a dry period early summer.