When Less May Mean More?

[Frank-the-Wool]

Is the Livestock sector, especially sheep and beef at a significant crossroads?

The present long overdue higher prices for sheep may not mean that there will be an increase in production.
Statistically there will be a significantly lower lamb crop this year, so it is likely that prices will remain firm. Normally one would see an increase in production when prices rise but I have yet to find any sheep farmers who will be increasing numbers.
In fact most are actually cutting back for many reasons.

Beef prices are now really nothing to get excited about, while store cattle prices have risen exponentially the finished price keeps creeping back. These large scale finishers who work on tiny margins for feeding large numbers of cattle look to be vulnerable to any small increases in feed costs. I am told there are far less surplus stock feed by products.

In the old days if you kept more stock you would spread your fixed costs and increase profitability, now by using SFI and reducing stock numbers profitability may well increase and the work load certainly will.
With thousands of hectares now taken out of production and agricultural infrastructure being lost, one wonders what will be the tipping point?

I cannot see a way in for a new generation of livestock farmers, the land is not available and even if it was the price of stocking it would be impossible.
Imports will find a way to come here so where does that leave the livestock farmer in the mid term?

Am I being too negative?

 

[thorpe]

Is the Livestock sector, especially sheep and beef at a significant crossroads?

The present long overdue higher prices for sheep may not mean that there will be an increase in production.
Statistically there will be a significantly lower lamb crop this year, so it is likely that prices will remain firm. Normally one would see an increase in production when prices rise but I have yet to find any sheep farmers who will be increasing numbers.
In fact most are actually cutting back for many reasons.

Beef prices are now really nothing to get excited about, while store cattle prices have risen exponentially the finished price keeps creeping back. These large scale finishers who work on tiny margins for feeding large numbers of cattle look to be vulnerable to any small increases in feed costs. I am told there are far less surplus stock feed by products.

In the old days if you kept more stock you would spread your fixed costs and increase profitability, now by using SFI and reducing stock numbers profitability may well increase and the work load certainly will.
With thousands of hectares now taken out of production and agricultural infrastructure being lost, one wonders what will be the tipping point?

I cannot see a way in for a new generation of livestock farmers, the land is not available and even if it was the price of stocking it would be impossible.
Imports will find a way to come here so where does that leave the livestock farmer in the mid term?

Am I being too negative?

no!

 

[unlacedgecko]

Is the Livestock sector, especially sheep and beef at a significant crossroads?

The present long overdue higher prices for sheep may not mean that there will be an increase in production.
Statistically there will be a significantly lower lamb crop this year, so it is likely that prices will remain firm. Normally one would see an increase in production when prices rise but I have yet to find any sheep farmers who will be increasing numbers.
In fact most are actually cutting back for many reasons.

Beef prices are now really nothing to get excited about, while store cattle prices have risen exponentially the finished price keeps creeping back. These large scale finishers who work on tiny margins for feeding large numbers of cattle look to be vulnerable to any small increases in feed costs. I am told there are far less surplus stock feed by products.

In the old days if you kept more stock you would spread your fixed costs and increase profitability, now by using SFI and reducing stock numbers profitability may well increase and the work load certainly will.
With thousands of hectares now taken out of production and agricultural infrastructure being lost, one wonders what will be the tipping point?

I cannot see a way in for a new generation of livestock farmers, the land is not available and even if it was the price of stocking it would be impossible.
Imports will find a way to come here so where does that leave the livestock farmer in the mid term?

Am I being too negative?

Access to land has always been my biggest challenge.

 

[Werzle]

Sweet spot in any business . Probably needed recent beef and sheep prices ten years ago but then we would of over produced. Quite a few keeping less cattle because they are too dear for the smaller scale men to buy and make a profit on.

 

[Devil's advocate]

Is the Livestock sector, especially sheep and beef at a significant crossroads?

The present long overdue higher prices for sheep may not mean that there will be an increase in production.
Statistically there will be a significantly lower lamb crop this year, so it is likely that prices will remain firm. Normally one would see an increase in production when prices rise but I have yet to find any sheep farmers who will be increasing numbers.
In fact most are actually cutting back for many reasons.

Beef prices are now really nothing to get excited about, while store cattle prices have risen exponentially the finished price keeps creeping back. These large scale finishers who work on tiny margins for feeding large numbers of cattle look to be vulnerable to any small increases in feed costs. I am told there are far less surplus stock feed by products.

In the old days if you kept more stock you would spread your fixed costs and increase profitability, now by using SFI and reducing stock numbers profitability may well increase and the work load certainly will.
With thousands of hectares now taken out of production and agricultural infrastructure being lost, one wonders what will be the tipping point?

I cannot see a way in for a new generation of livestock farmers, the land is not available and even if it was the price of stocking it would be impossible.
Imports will find a way to come here so where does that leave the livestock farmer in the mid term?

Am I being too negative?

Far too negative.

Most expanding locally.

 

[gone up the hill]

If you take out the loss of BPS money for the now useless/unworkable SFI scheme for most grassland farmers, add in massively increased costs the last 3/4 years ago then the current sheep prices are not actually that good, they certainly need to be another £40/50 head dearer just to cover the loss of sub and increased input costs mentioned above just to be equal to a few years ago.

Cattle job again is not as great as people make out when you factor in the massive increase in costs like above either.

No end of sheep farmers quitting or cutting back lambing ewes currently, yet to hear of any increasing numbers for several reasons but mostly because of the farmers age and the kids working off farm as returns have not been good enough to let them stay at home and pay them a decent wage are why so many are quitting lambing sheep.

Never ending red tape/ farm assurance etc is also stopping young people getting into farming and the current SFI scheme means that it makes the most sense money wise for older farmers to sell their stock and put it into the high paying SFI options if they can rather than rent it out as current livestock prices means you cannot match the SFI payment rates.

 

[unlacedgecko]

If you take out the loss of BPS money for the now useless/unworkable SFI scheme for most grassland farmers, add in massively increased costs the last 3/4 years ago then the current sheep prices are not actually that good, they certainly need to be another £40/50 head dearer just to cover the loss of sub and increased input costs mentioned above just to be equal to a few years ago.

Cattle job again is not as great as people make out when you factor in the massive increase in costs like above either.

No end of sheep farmers quitting or cutting back lambing ewes currently, yet to hear of any increasing numbers for several reasons but mostly because of the farmers age and the kids working off farm as returns have not been good enough to let them stay at home and pay them a decent wage are why so many are quitting lambing sheep.

Never ending red tape/ farm assurance etc is also stopping young people getting into farming and the current SFI scheme means that it makes the most sense money wise for older farmers to sell their stock and put it into the high paying SFI options if they can rather than rent it out as current livestock prices means you cannot match the SFI payment rates.

I have sheep genetics to comfortably run 2,000 ewes per labour unit. This would be a proper business and give decent returns.

But I can't access enough land to achieve that scale. So I'm stuck at self employed level. It's more than a little frustrating.

 

[Bury the Trash]

Access to land has always been my biggest challenge.

you arent unique with that.

 

[Northeastfarmer]

Far too negative.

Most expanding locally.

I don’t know anyone expanding. Everyone reducing

 

[Granite Farmer]

Access to land has always been my biggest challenge.

IMO that's a situation that's just going to get worse for both new entrant and established businesses alike.

 

[Aspiring Peasants]

Access to land has always been my biggest challenge.

‘Twas ever so

 

[Devil's advocate]

I have sheep genetics to comfortably run 2,000 ewes per labour unit. This would be a proper business and give decent returns.

But I can't access enough land to achieve that scale. So I'm stuck at self employed level. It's more than a little frustrating.

I've sheep genetics that 500 ewes will be ones Man's wages.

I grow vegetable crops that can gross £10K an acre.

I don't need to push out my neighbour to earn a living.

 

[unlacedgecko]

I've sheep genetics that 500 ewes will be ones Man's wages.

I grow vegetable crops that can gross £10K an acre.

I don't need to push out my neighbour to earn a living.

Congratulations.

Ive no interest in earning a living. I'm here to create generational wealth and buy land.

 

[Devil's advocate]

Back to Frank's post.

People are going to farm sheep, it might be different people but the sheep industry is safe.

Unlacedgecko is going to push to expand, I'd say race to the bottom with mass production, I'm going to concentrate on the whole business & not worry too much about sheep profits, but we will keep sheep & lots more like us.

 

[Aspiring Peasants]

Back to Frank's post.

People are going to farm sheep, it might be different people but the sheep industry is safe.

Unlacedgecko is going to push to expand, I'd say race to the bottom with mass production, I'm going to concentrate on the whole business & not worry too much about sheep profits, but we will keep sheep & lots more like us.

I’m not sure this running of big numbers with little supervision is going to save the sheep industry. Much of the marginal type land sheep run on is not suitable and with the attitude of the general public it’s not hard to imagine pressure to lamb inside. I think there’s a few on here who lamb inside mainly due to problems like that. I think a race to the bottom is not good for the future of the industry , look at poultry and pigs

 

[unlacedgecko]

I’m not sure this running of big numbers with little supervision is going to save the sheep industry. Much of the marginal type land sheep run on is not suitable and with the attitude of the general public it’s not hard to imagine pressure to lamb inside. I think there’s a few on here who lamb inside mainly due to problems like that. I think a race to the bottom is not good for the future of the industry , look at poultry and pigs

Do you think those industries are in a bad way? It's been rough on independent operators, but the large vertically integrated businesses make a fortune.

It seems that lambing sheep inside is not profitable without some form of subsidy or additional income.

 

[Aspiring Peasants]

Do you think those industries are in a bad way? It's been rough on independent operators, but the large vertically integrated businesses make a fortune.

It seems that lambing sheep inside is not profitable without some form of subsidy or additional income.

I lamb both inside and outside and am moving to lambing more outside. I don’t think any sheep business is particularly profitable if every cost is taken into account even at current prices. By vertically integrated businesses do you mean I think it’s called field to fork? If so most of the profit is made further up the chain than by primary production

 

[czechmate]

Do you think those industries are in a bad way? It's been rough on independent operators, but the large vertically integrated businesses make a fortune.

It seems that lambing sheep inside is not profitable without some form of subsidy or additional income.

A relative of mine was working for the biggest pig farmer in the uk. Coincidentally, a member of that family farms (cattle) near me here. Now that pig farm used to mill a 29 tonne lorry of grain every 20 minutes, so, something of an operation.
i was with the family member New Year’s Eve, and I brought up the pig business in conversation…
»not a pig left, they finished with pigs »
i was quite shocked as they had been doing it a long time.

i only mention it, quoting your post as I suppose one of those industries isnt in the best of ways

 

[Hilly]

Is the Livestock sector, especially sheep and beef at a significant crossroads?

The present long overdue higher prices for sheep may not mean that there will be an increase in production.
Statistically there will be a significantly lower lamb crop this year, so it is likely that prices will remain firm. Normally one would see an increase in production when prices rise but I have yet to find any sheep farmers who will be increasing numbers.
In fact most are actually cutting back for many reasons.

Beef prices are now really nothing to get excited about, while store cattle prices have risen exponentially the finished price keeps creeping back. These large scale finishers who work on tiny margins for feeding large numbers of cattle look to be vulnerable to any small increases in feed costs. I am told there are far less surplus stock feed by products.

In the old days if you kept more stock you would spread your fixed costs and increase profitability, now by using SFI and reducing stock numbers profitability may well increase and the work load certainly will.
With thousands of hectares now taken out of production and agricultural infrastructure being lost, one wonders what will be the tipping point?

I cannot see a way in for a new generation of livestock farmers, the land is not available and even if it was the price of stocking it would be impossible.
Imports will find a way to come here so where does that leave the livestock farmer in the mid term?

Am I being too negative?

Realistic not negative.

 

[Poorbuthappy]

Far too negative.

Most expanding locally.

Which sectors?