Who Knows How Many Lambs There Are To Be Sold This Winter?

[livestock 1]

Not AHDB that’s for sure!


They just think they know which is worse than nowt

 

[Frank-the-Wool]

According to the June census, Scotland's lamb numbers are 8% down on last year's census. And 3.9% down compared to the 2012-17, 5 year average.
Ewe numbers are 4% down on the year.

Reportedly 272,600 less lambs here alone.

England lamb crop is down 1.4% on last year but ewe numbers up by 1.3% (despite losses).
Irish lamb down 2% and ewe numbers down 1.1%.

UK Slaughter figures show 8% less lambs killed in the period June-September compared to last year...

(Source, The Scottish Farmer).

Does anyone complete the June return anymore? And if so I would doubt the accuracy on livestock numbers.

The number of ear tags issued in the calendar year for sheep would be a very accurate indicator of numbers.
The AHDB had been using June returns for their estimates. We all (sheep producers) have to do a 1st December return for RPA which will be accurate for ewes but not for lambs as store lamb finishers are not included!

 

[livestock 1]

Does anyone complete the June return anymore? And if so I would doubt the accuracy on livestock numbers.

The number of ear tags issued in the calendar year for sheep would be a very accurate indicator of numbers.
The AHDB had been using June returns for their estimates. We all (sheep producers) have to do a 1st December return for RPA which will be accurate for ewes but not for lambs as store lamb finishers are not included!

Was it not badly quoted sheep numbers that partly caused the spike then subsequent drop in fat market prices?

 

[andybk]

Does anyone complete the June return anymore? And if so I would doubt the accuracy on livestock numbers.

The number of ear tags issued in the calendar year for sheep would be a very accurate indicator of numbers.
The AHDB had been using June returns for their estimates. We all (sheep producers) have to do a 1st December return for RPA which will be accurate for ewes but not for lambs as store lamb finishers are not included!

our will it ?, or will it be estimates of how many some think they have , just to keep rpa off their back .i know of a few dealer flocks scattered around on keep and i would seriously doubt they know what they have on farm within 10-20% ,

 

[Frank-the-Wool]

Was it not badly quoted sheep numbers that partly caused the spike then subsequent drop in fat market prices?

The story was that the supermarkets and abattoirs all believed the AHDB forecast that there were all these extra lambs/hoggets and that the price would stay low in the lead up to Easter. So a couple of the supermarkets contracted in Legs of lamb at a price where they could sell at "half price" what ever the full price was to start with!!
The problem as we all now know is that these extra lambs did not exist and there were no supplies from anywhere else in the world so the export demand was also very high which caused the price spike.

I don't think they will be relying on AHDB statistics in the future to do contract deals!!

 

[gone up the hill]

The story was that the supermarkets and abattoirs all believed the AHDB forecast that there were all these extra lambs/hoggets and that the price would stay low in the lead up to Easter. So a couple of the supermarkets contracted in Legs of lamb at a price where they could sell at "half price" what ever the full price was to start with!!
The problem as we all now know is that these extra lambs did not exist and there were no supplies from anywhere else in the world so the export demand was also very high which caused the price spike.

I don't think they will be relying on AHDB statistics in the future to do contract deals!!

AHDB isn't fit for purpose, they offer no value to lamb producers and given costs are going to have to be cut very hard the AHDB needs to be scrapped.

A job advert in the weeks FW for a AHDB worker for the south west, job is described, part of it is talking to all people concerned with the beef and lamb sector, last ones to be mentioned and pretty much an after thought is yep you guessed it producers!

Pay for that job is £43,000 a year!

 

[Yale]

Was it not badly quoted sheep numbers that partly caused the spike then subsequent drop in fat market prices?

We should not give the supermarkets the power of having accurate figures.

They only use them to ruin the trade.

We are pushing our lambs off grass but taking them to mid 40’s kg’s as you only sell them once and an extra pound or two per head adds up.

 

[aangus]

AHDB isn't fit for purpose, they offer no value to lamb producers and given costs are going to have to be cut very hard the AHDB needs to be scrapped.

A job advert in the weeks FW for a AHDB worker for the south west, job is described, part of it is talking to all people concerned with the beef and lamb sector, last ones to be mentioned and pretty much an after thought is yep you guessed it producers!

Pay for that job is £43,000 a year!

You should apply Guth, you're already communicating with all who's involved with the industry

 

[Hilly]

I have 95 acres of turnips planted.Normally we graze them with our own ewes and buy in around 500/700 store lambs to fatten and sell early April.My dwt lamb buyer has urged caution over buying any lambs,this year, with the increased risk of what Brexit might bring to prices.He said to let the turnips and be safe in the knowledge of what return you will get.Thoughts ?

My Live weight buyer was telling me to buy buy buy going to be dearer in april as last year ! buy buy buy, i have not bought 1 first year for a decade.

 

[Old Tip]

Lot less lambs coming forward for the big autumn sales round here, lots were lost at lambing and even more were never born due to reabsorbtion or ewe deaths. Not sure how things are going to pan out but with lamb up in price across the world prices they can’t ship it in at knock down prices anymore

 

[livestock 1]

Lot less lambs coming forward for the big autumn sales round here, lots were lost at lambing and even more were never born due to reabsorbtion or ewe deaths. Not sure how things are going to pan out but with lamb up in price across the world prices they can’t ship it in at knock down prices anymore

The prospect for Hogg values is very good

 

[hendrebc]

You should apply Guth, you're already communicating with all who's involved with the industry

I think guth would be a good choice from what little I know if him on here. He understands what goes on in farms and markets and more importantly he can talk and is more than happy to argue a point if he has to. But he wouldn't get the job because places like the ahdb only want yes men who would agree with them so they can all pat each other on the back and tell themselves they are doing a good job
f**k it apply @gone up the hill

 

[Frank-the-Wool]

The prospect for Hogg values is very good

In theory this is true however while we know there are a less to be sold over the winter if you look at normal marketing conditions, however the short fall will be made up with ewe lambs/hoggs. No one will not sell ewe hoggs this coming early Spring if they are up around £110.00 plus.
If the B word goes wrong then who knows what value they will be at the end of March!

The feed situation for finishing lambs in the East, South East and Midlands is dire and feeding concentrates at the present price levels is not on.
Ewe prices are depressed and there are plenty of grazing ewes being held which will mean they remain a low price for some time, this will also put a brake on hogget prices.

 

[livestock 1]

In theory this is true however while we know there are a less to be sold over the winter if you look at normal marketing conditions, however the short fall will be made up with ewe lambs/hoggs. No one will not sell ewe hoggs this coming early Spring if they are up around £110.00 plus.
If the B word goes wrong then who knows what value they will be at the end of March!

The feed situation for finishing lambs in the East, South East and Midlands is dire and feeding concentrates at the present price levels is not on.
Ewe prices are depressed and there are plenty of grazing ewes being held which will mean they remain a low price for some time, this will also put a brake on hogget prices.

Agreed. We are on fattening lambs and it’s a waste of time at the moment especially when there’s hardly any difference between store and fat prices. However I did put the hoppers out last month and I didn’t have a crystal ball on the other hand I didn’t want to be going into November with a load of sheep loosing flesh so it’s all good as it can be at the moment. This Hogg job is never predictable but all is pointing to a higher trade next spring or before. The numbers of lambs must be well down and the b word appears to have a new extended deadline so should be ok. The number of breeding hoggs available could be an issue as you say but taking sheep out of the system can’t be bad news for us as people appear to be keeping similar numbers or less in the main part. Still it’s unknown but one things sure if you haven’t got any to sell you can’t gain owt. One dealer said to me years ago there’s two types of people there’s the ones who feel like a prat when the mart rings up and asks for sheep in a good trade when they haven’t got any, and there’s the others who laugh at you when you are selling them in a bad trade after you’ve fed them for 6 months. Who knows

 

[Yale]

The prospect for Hogg values is very good

And the supermarkets will not be caught again with their pants down so will have queue of boats lined up at the dockside in March full to the brim with NZ lamb.

 

[andybk]

And the supermarkets will not be caught again with their pants down so will have queue of boats lined up at the dockside in March full to the brim with NZ lamb.

no thats not going to happen , they have already been to NZ to buy and came away empty handed , price far to expensive taking exhange rate into account , a lot of theirs is going to china and usa , only a small quantity coming to EU to keep trade routes open .

 

[livestock 1]

And the supermarkets will not be caught again with their pants down so will have queue of boats lined up at the dockside in March full to the brim with NZ lamb.

I think it’s going to China and it’s not cheap either

 

[Yale]

I think it’s going to China and it’s not cheap either

They don’t care,they will be losing money on NZ lamb now but it’s done the job of depressing our price.

 

[neilo]

no thats not going to happen , they have already been to NZ to buy and came away empty handed , price far to expensive taking exhange rate into account , a lot theirs is all going to china and usa , only a small quantity coming to EU to keep trade routes open .

That’s what I heard too. They couldn’t buy anything at almost any money. Happy days, although I suspect they will just promote white meats more instead.

 

[livestock 1]

I think it’s going to China and it’s not cheap either

Can you remember after the b word vote? Lamb went up, the retailers pushed the processors to quote a price for lamb three months forward and they had to honour their contracts loosing money. The next 3-6 months after that the price was down as they were recouping money. That’s what’s happening now recouping money after the spike in the spring.

I think anyway