This dry hot weather now is playing havoc with yields
Combinables Price Tracker
- Thread starter Jerry
- Start date
Flew into Stanstad yesterday and the crops from above didn't look very good.
There not. I’m on the fight path. There’s a lot of spring drilling our way. Winter barley is the only crop that look good.
wellingtonfarmer
Member
- Location
- Herefordshire
£300 old crop osr for July today. Sold half, sitting on half
average farmer
Member
- Location
- North Notts
I bottled out a couple of weeks ago and sold over 50% at £290 if prices keep going might average £300 .
Some osr in the area looks brilliant some looks rubbish, a very hard crop to call.
- Location
- MK43
Frontier called today. Didn't sell anything, but spoke to our supplier and fixed Turkey food till Christmas!
down n'dirty
Member
- Location
- South Wales
Quoted 168 for feed today for June- going into mill for chicken feed. Supplies are obviously drying up!
First rule of selling grain imo is that if merchants are calling you it’s time to hold !
- Location
- Darlington
Mine didn't return my call today, making me nervous. A good drop of rain tomorrow could bring it all crashing down, but would wash my N in so mixed blessings.
Baling Hay
Member
I find this attitude quite strange. Can you please explain why?
- Location
- Darlington
Because the merchants are trying to get locked in at the bottom of a rising market.
Baling Hay
Member
But are they? After all there is many components that make up the farmgate price:
Futures prices
UK Basis (price difference between futures and physical)
Forex
Just because a merchant rings doesn't mean they think the flat price will rise. They may actually be just covering a short in their physical book, or maybe they think the prices have hit some triggers for the farmer to sell, or maybe they think UK will appreciate vs. futures prices so they are selling the futures whilst they buy farm grain in the belief that the market is about to fall!!!
Also, I bet most merchants hedge the currency so they won't be exposed to swings in the GBP which can make or break the farmgate price!
- Location
- MK43
To be fair there are one or two that are interested in more than just the immediate deal. @crazy_bull will be pleased to know our gleadells bloke is one whose opinion is worth listening to.
- Location
- MK43
Maybe just what it feels like, but rarely seems right when I've sold to frontier when they've called me.
Baling Hay
Member
I get what you mean, also part of human mentality. You will always remember the times you sold and the market went up more than when you didn't sell and it fell. The former required action and felt like a loss when in fact you simply booked a price with hopefully a profit.
Simple human emotion of FOMO = Fear of Missing Out
- Location
- Huntingdon
- Location
- Darlington
Was a bit flippant but the merchants have suddenly gone quiet. I just go with my gut anyway. Sometimes I'm right sometimes I'm wrong.
- Location
- Huntingdon
I don't get it at the moment, plenty of folk really cross that they sold 5-10% of an average harvest at £140 and the market has gone up, they have 90% ish left to sell at more money.
Had the market dropped they would be in a worse position business wise.
I have spent most of this week explaining reasons why the market could continue to rise to clients, but their target prices have been reached and people are happy to lock tonnages in at better money than they achieved last few years.
C B
Had the market dropped they would be in a worse position business wise.
I have spent most of this week explaining reasons why the market could continue to rise to clients, but their target prices have been reached and people are happy to lock tonnages in at better money than they achieved last few years.
C B
- Location
- Huntingdon
Odd, merchants should be keen to buy most of the time, have you told the reps 'No bugger off' too many times and they have got bored.
C B