Boris is doing well

Henarar

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Somerset
It has to get through the commons so its down to the remainers again as there are far more of them so they are still in charge as they have been for decades
 

Bankville

Member
Well he has his deal, we haven’t seen the detail but the EU “red line” backstop has been removed if we are to believe news reports.

Assuming it gets approved by EU, Brexiteer MP’s have a huge decision to make. Back the deal and deliver some kind of brexit, or twist in the hope of a better or no deal which some would prefer, but at the risk of potentially no brexit at all.

Interesting few days ahead

Mark Urban (@MarkUrban01) Tweeted: An insider from one of the EU institutions here told me today that after UK made its initial offer here 2 weeks ago, Michel Barnier told him, 'we will have to get them to move to a Northern Ireland only backstop, but convince them that's not what's happening'
 

H200GT

Member
Location
NORTH WALES
I think boris will win the vote myself

It will be close, but unless the DUP at least abstain i cant see it.

As it stands, unless the DUP have a change of heart, he will need all tory MPs, the 21 Tory MP’s that had the whip removed, and some Labour MP to vote for it. It will be close, but i don't think he will have the numbers

Personally i hope it gets through as its as good a deal we are ever likely to get given the circumstances, and I cant see the EU negotiating a 3rd deal.

Brexiteer MPs need to think hard, refuse this and the risk of no brexit at all becomes a real risk
 
It will be close, but unless the DUP at least abstain i cant see it.

As it stands, unless the DUP have a change of heart, he will need all tory MPs, the 21 Tory MP’s that had the whip removed, and some Labour MP to vote for it. It will be close, but i don't think he will have the numbers

Personally i hope it gets through as its as good a deal we are ever likely to get given the circumstances, and I cant see the EU negotiating a 3rd deal.

Brexiteer MPs need to think hard, refuse this and the risk of no brexit at all becomes a real risk
It be by majority of 2 and then it's case look forward to Brexit day !
 

Bankville

Member
It will be close, but unless the DUP at least abstain i cant see it.

As it stands, unless the DUP have a change of heart, he will need all tory MPs, the 21 Tory MP’s that had the whip removed, and some Labour MP to vote for it. It will be close, but i don't think he will have the numbers

Personally i hope it gets through as its as good a deal we are ever likely to get given the circumstances, and I cant see the EU negotiating a 3rd deal.

Brexiteer MPs need to think hard, refuse this and the risk of no brexit at all becomes a real risk

DUP are definite no, cant see Grieve voting for it possibly not P Hammond either.

ERG were having more meetings in number 10 today, a similar number of meetings as the DUP had so they must have doubts. I think the deal hinges on their support.
 

nivilla1982

Member
Livestock Farmer
Northern Ireland's say
Because Northern Ireland will be set apart from the rest of the UK when it comes to customs and other EU rules, the deal gives its Assembly a vote on these provisions.
But this vote would not happen until four years after the end of the transition period that is due to run until the end of 2020 - so no earlier than January 2025.
If the Northern Irish Assembly votes against the provisions, they would lose force two years later during which time the "joint committee" would make recommendations to the UK and EU on "necessary measures".
If the Assembly accepts the continuing provisions by a simple majority, they will then apply for another four years. If the deal has "cross-community support" then they will apply for eight years, or until a new agreement on the future relationship is reached if that comes sooner.
The deal defines cross-community support as more than 50% each of unionist and nationalist Assembly members voting in favour, or at least 40% of members from each designation if in total at least 60% of members have voted in favour.
The UK government has said that if the Northern Ireland Assembly is still not sitting at that point, it will make alternative arrangements to make sure a vote can take place.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50083026
Onus would/will be on unionism to regain a majority in assembly.
In effect it would be a quasi border poll every 4 years
 

Bankville

Member
Keeping Northern Ireland tied as closely as possible to the EU will be the second thing they agree on. It only needs a simple majority

K
Northern Ireland's say
Because Northern Ireland will be set apart from the rest of the UK when it comes to customs and other EU rules, the deal gives its Assembly a vote on these provisions.
But this vote would not happen until four years after the end of the transition period that is due to run until the end of 2020 - so no earlier than January 2025.
If the Northern Irish Assembly votes against the provisions, they would lose force two years later during which time the "joint committee" would make recommendations to the UK and EU on "necessary measures".
If the Assembly accepts the continuing provisions by a simple majority, they will then apply for another four years. If the deal has "cross-community support" then they will apply for eight years, or until a new agreement on the future relationship is reached if that comes sooner.
The deal defines cross-community support as more than 50% each of unionist and nationalist Assembly members voting in favour, or at least 40% of members from each designation if in total at least 60% of members have voted in favour.
The UK government has said that if the Northern Ireland Assembly is still not sitting at that point, it will make alternative arrangements to make sure a vote can take place.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50083026
Onus would/will be on unionism to regain a majority in assembly.
In effect it would be a quasi border poll every 4 years

Seems a bit pointless having a vote. SF will never vote to harden Irish border.
 

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