No vaccine and no immunity.

hoff135 · Apr 27, 2020

We are currently being told that its unlikely we will have any lasting immunity from coronavirus, certainly it is not proven. I am assuming this could mean someone could be in icu right now but recover only to end up in the same place in 6 months in the same state. If there is no lasting immunity then i cant see how this wont happen?

Secondly there is no vaccine as of now and cold water is being pour on the idea it will be available anytime soon. It may actually never be available or it could be years down the line.

If its true that the population cant become immune on its own and no vaccine is becoming available in the next year or so i cant see how we can continue with the current situation long term?

robs1 · Apr 27, 2020

Are there any corona viruses that we dont become immune to ? If we have had it once and our immune system has killed the infection why wouldn't it a second time, if ivomec does treat it then other drugs will no doubt be found, what ever happens it's pointless worrying about it as the saying goes enjoy today for tomorrow might never come

hoff135 · Apr 27, 2020

robs1 said:
Are there any corona viruses that we dont become immune to ? If we have had it once and our immune system has killed the infection why wouldn't it a second time, if ivomec does treat it then other drugs will no doubt be found, what ever happens it's pointless worrying about it as the saying goes enjoy today for tomorrow might never come

Makes sense but the experts seem keen to stress to us that there is no evidence of lasting immunity.

Yes drugs may be found to treat it.

At some point i think we will have to accept it as being part of life and move on. Diseases like TB constatly circulated among the population and sadly some were unlucky, but the rest just had to keep going

milkloss · Apr 27, 2020

If it is indeed a manufactured virus then it may be right that we will never be able to vaccinate or gain immunity to it

Whitepeak · Apr 27, 2020

The reason for lack of immunity/vaccine will be due to the virus constantly mutating, same as Influenza. You will be immune to the strain you were infected with but if a slightly different stain comes along in 6mths then you will have no immunity to it. Hence why you need to have the flu jab every year, the flu strain going round will be different to last yrs. However the makers of the vaccine have to second guess which strain will be most prevalent, working atleast 6mths in advance. By the time they develop a covid-19 vaccine based on the current strain, the virus will most probably have mutated rendering the new vaccine useless.

yellowbelly · Apr 27, 2020

hoff135 said:
Makes sense but the experts seem keen to stress to us that there is no evidence of lasting immunity.

How do these "experts" know?

This virus has only been around a few months. They haven't had enough time to prove anything one way or the other.

DrWazzock · Apr 27, 2020

If we didnt develop immunity it would kill everybody it infects which is clearly not the case.
What happens is the virus changes just as the common cold virus changes so you get over one strain then later you pick up a new strain.
I’d expect new strains of Coronavirus to be easier to fight off as normally virus’s become more benign in time. A successful parasite doesn’t kill its host. What’s more the new strains of Covid 19 won’t be that disimilar to the novel strain so the body will be prepared to tackle them.

It will fizzle out eventually to background levels with possibly occasional bouts of cases like seasonal flu.

DrWazzock · Apr 27, 2020

Don’t worry too much. Crack on as best you can within government guidelines taking sensible precautions.

hoff135 · Apr 27, 2020

DrWazzock said:
If we didnt develop immunity it would kill everybody it infects which is clearly not the case.
What happens is the virus changes just as the common cold virus changes so you get over one strain then later you pick up a new strain.
I’d expect new strains of Coronavirus to be easier to fight off as normally virus’s become more benign in time. A successful parasite doesn’t kill its host. What’s more the new strains of Covid 19 won’t be that disimilar to the novel strain so the body will be prepared to tackle them.

It will fizzle out eventually to background levels with possibly occasional bouts of cases like seasonal flu.

So why have the WHO advised governments not to issue "immunity passports" allowing people to return to normal?

Crex · Apr 27, 2020

yellowbelly said:
How do these "experts" know?

This virus has only been around a few months. They haven't had enough time to prove anything one way or the other.

Well exactly. All they have said thus far is there is no evidence (or not enough) . Because, as you point, it's only been around for a wee while.

Chopsy Varmint · Apr 27, 2020

hoff135 said:
So why have the WHO advised governments not to issue "immunity passports" allowing people to return to normal?

Because they don't know for sure how long a previously infected person will retain an effective level of antibodies. They also don't know how often and how fast the virus will mutate so immunity won't be possible, same reason we don't have immunity from the common cold.

czechmate · Apr 27, 2020

hoff135 said:
So why have the WHO advised governments not to issue "immunity passports" allowing people to return to normal?

They said there is no proof that immunity does follow infection.
They didn’t say anything like “there is no immunity”, which seem to be how you are choosing to interpret it.

hoff135 · Apr 27, 2020

czechmate said:
They said there is no proof that immunity does follow infection.
They didn’t say anything like “there is no immunity”, which seem to be how you are choosing to interpret it.

Regardless it seems all hope is being placed in a vaccine to get us out of this. I dont think anyone is saying this will be available this year so at the moment there is no way out of the current situation and there might never be.

Dave79 · Apr 27, 2020

I heard a Swedish virologist being interviewed the other day, and he was asked about this, and he said that immunity was a best guess, because all other Coronavirus’s leave a lasting immunity, so why would this one be different? But it still can’t be guaranteed.

Boydvalley · Apr 27, 2020

I think there’s a fair bit of dampening down of expectation that there’s an easy way out of this. My GP neighbour does indeed say that they are being told that they have no proof that catching it gives immunity. However you are unlikely to get as bad the second time.
Interestingly every interview on vaccines I’ve heard says that it’s not mutating which gives them an easier target. The two don’t seem to correlate.

czechmate · Apr 27, 2020

hoff135 said:
Regardless it seems all hope is being placed in a vaccine to get us out of this. I dont think anyone is saying this will be available this year so at the moment there is no way out of the current situation and there might never be.

There is no “regardless” to it.
Maybe next week, next month, there will be evidence that after infection, you gain immunity ?

onthehoof · Apr 27, 2020

Whitepeak said:
The reason for lack of immunity/vaccine will be due to the virus constantly mutating, same as Influenza. You will be immune to the strain you were infected with but if a slightly different stain comes along in 6mths then you will have no immunity to it. Hence why you need to have the flu jab every year, the flu strain going round will be different to last yrs. However the makers of the vaccine have to second guess which strain will be most prevalent, working atleast 6mths in advance. By the time they develop a covid-19 vaccine based on the current strain, the virus will most probably have mutated rendering the new vaccine useless.

Thats not actually true, apparently there are about 8 strains already but it mutates so slightly that a vaccine would almost certainly kill all the strains

hoff135 · Apr 27, 2020

czechmate said:
There is no “regardless” to it.
Maybe next week, next month, there will be evidence that after infection, you gain immunity ?

I understand from what i have read is that the immune response from the body might not actually last long. So if you land in intensive care now you could also end up there again in a years time?

czechmate · Apr 27, 2020

hoff135 said:
I understand from what i have read is that the immune response from the body might not actually last long. So if you land in intensive care now you could also end up there again in a years time?

I will be the first to admit that we may well be approaching very difficult times

Tbh, I am a bit lost as to what you are getting at? There almost seems an underlying thought that old people (whatever that might mean) should be left to take their (rather poor) chances, due to being an expensive inconvenience

hoff135 · Apr 27, 2020

czechmate said:
I will be the first to admit that we may well be approaching very difficult times
Tbh, I am a bit lost as to what you are getting at? There almost seems an underlying thought that old people (whatever that might mean) should be left to take their (rather poor) chances, due to being an expensive inconvenience

The point i am trying to get at is if immunity doesnt last and we cant get a vaccine then the lock down is just kicking the can down the road and just delaying the inevitable.

Hopefully we do get a vaccine, i personally wont be taking it but those who want can get it and we can move on

No vaccine and no immunity.

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