£200 fat lamb

[Beowulf]

No offence mate but you haven't got a clue what your talking about when it comes to NZ lamb and imports.

NZ sheep numbers are drastically down and will stay down and most of their exports are now going into the Asian markets and will do for some time, only a tiny fraction of NZ lamb is now coming into the UK and most of that is legs.

And the above comes from the AHDB chief man on exports/ imports and whilst I give the AHDB a hard time this chap knows his stuff and is worth every penny of his wages they have been paying him.

Great loss to the industry that he is about to retire from the AHDB.

Yet again the fixation with New Zealand. The planet is a big place, New Zealand only covers a small part of it.

Whether I know what I'm talking about is neither here nor there, I'm not in the business of producing lamb. What I can say with absolute certainty is that very few UK farmers have any clue about the future of sheep farming.

Quoting the ADHB 'chief man' only reinforces your ignorance and lack of personal research into the marketplace and how future trade deals are going to affect it. Do some of your own digging, then come back to me and we'll thrash it out. Quoting someone who is paid to pat you on the back and tell you everything will be fine is not a valid argument.

 

[lloyd]

I get my figures from actually talking to farmers in other parts of the world, as I believe that's the best way of gauging how the market will pan out. I was speaking with a New Zealand farmer recently who tells me he can produce a lamb to UK spec and ready for slaughter for less than NZ$50 which is less than half what the UK farmers I have spoken to are estimating at CURRENT foreign exchange prices.

And yes I can (and often do) predict what currencies are going to do. It's how I make my living, keep a roof over the head of my family and pay my staff. After 15+ years I've gotten pretty good at it.

I'm not going into how much money I make at it, that's my business, but it did allow me to buy a farm outright as a hobby without borrowing a single penny.

What he can produce it for and what he sells it for are two different things!
NZ lamb prices have been very good with high demand from China.
You sell to your best market which lately hasn't been the UK.

 

[gone up the hill]

Yet again the fixation with New Zealand. The planet is a big place, New Zealand only covers a small part of it.

Whether I know what I'm talking about is neither here nor there, I'm not in the business of producing lamb. What I can say with absolute certainty is that very few UK farmers have any clue about the future of sheep farming.

Quoting the ADHB 'chief man' only reinforces your ignorance and lack of personal research into the marketplace and how future trade deals are going to affect it. Do some of your own digging, then come back to me and we'll thrash it out. Quoting someone who is paid to pat you on the back and tell you everything will be fine is not a valid argument.

You know feck all and you admit it..........................

That chap tells it like it is, I would rather listen to him than someone like you that hasn't a clue what he is talking about yet quite clearly you think you are right and everyone else is wrong.

No one knows what shape future trade deals will take at this time so a complete waste of time researching what might happen, facts are all that matter, when we have them we will then look into what might/ might not happen.

 

[Northeastfarmer]

I think you pair are suffering a distinct case of cognitive dissonance.

Lamb consumption is most definitely on a long-term downward trend, and has been for decades. The recent currency fluctuations made imported lamb a little less economic than local produce, but that situation is well on the way to being rebalanced.

 

[Henarar]

Yet again the fixation with New Zealand. The planet is a big place, New Zealand only covers a small part of it.

Whether I know what I'm talking about is neither here nor there, I'm not in the business of producing lamb. What I can say with absolute certainty is that very few UK farmers have any clue about the future of sheep farming.

Quoting the ADHB 'chief man' only reinforces your ignorance and lack of personal research into the marketplace and how future trade deals are going to affect it. Do some of your own digging, then come back to me and we'll thrash it out. Quoting someone who is paid to pat you on the back and tell you everything will be fine is not a valid argument.

I remember now you were chap on here before Christmas predicting that lambs would be making £150 quid and more come April

 

[Beowulf]

You know feck all and you admit it..........................

That chap tells it like it is, I would rather listen to him than someone like you that hasn't a clue what he is talking about yet quite clearly you think you are right and everyone else is wrong.

No one knows what shape future trade deals will take at this time so a complete waste of time researching what might happen, facts are all that matter, when we have them we will then look into what might/ might not happen.

Admitted it where, pray tell?

Your chummy mate may well be right and I'm wrong, but the difference is I've formed my opinion on the basis of my own judgement and research. You have formed yours on the basis of someone telling you the moon is made of cheese and you have chosen to believe it.

That you are willing to dismiss any research as pointless when we are less than a year away from leaving the EU shows your lack of foresight. The trend towards free trade between nations has been evident for more than 20 years, tariffs are a silly distraction and every government knows it.

 

[Beowulf]

View attachment 657374

Some days I wake up and feel like I'm 18 again, but the long-term trend is for me to feel ever older. Short term blips do not a trend make, no matter how good it feels at the time.

Do you think the status quo will be maintained in 5/10/15 years time, or will the downward trend have continued?

 

[Beowulf]

Y

I remember now you were chap on here before Christmas predicting that lambs would be making £150 quid and more come April

You must have me confused with someone else.

 

[gone up the hill]

Admitted it where, pray tell?

Your chummy mate may well be right and I'm wrong, but the difference is I've formed my opinion on the basis of my own judgement and research. You have formed yours on the basis of someone telling you the moon is made of cheese and you have chosen to believe it.

That you are willing to dismiss any research as pointless when we are less than a year away from leaving the EU shows your lack of foresight. The trend towards free trade between nations has been evident for more than 20 years, tariffs are a silly distraction and every government knows it.

No one has the facts yet so unless you know more than the UK government/ everyone else including other country's then you have no idea what shape trade deals will take post 2021.

Untill we know the shape of trade deals there is no point worrying what will happen.

Oh and anyone like you who thinks they know it all actually know sweet FA.

You are just full of hot air

 

[Henarar]

Y

You must have me confused with someone else.

oh right
yes I probably do

 

[Northeastfarmer]

Some days I wake up and feel like I'm 18 again, but the long-term trend is for me to feel ever older. Short term blips do not a trend make, no matter how good it feels at the time.

Do you think the status quo will be maintained in 5/10/15 years time, or will the downward trend have continued?

It’s been rising for 3 years in a row....the population is growing year on year....farmland is disappearing....yes demand will continue to grow

 

[Beowulf]

No one has the facts yet so unless you know more than the UK government/ everyone else including other country's then you have no idea what shape trade deals will take post 2021.

Untill we know the shape of trade deals there is no point worrying what will happen.

Oh and anyone like you who thinks they know it all actually know sweet FA.

You are just full of hot air

You don't have to know the facts to take an informed view. Looking at what has happened in other deals will give a good indication of the likely outcome, even if it isn't 100% certain.

Like I said, do your own research and come at me with some points to debate.

 

[lloyd]

Yet again the fixation with New Zealand. The planet is a big place, New Zealand only covers a small part of it.

Whether I know what I'm talking about is neither here nor there, I'm not in the business of producing lamb. What I can say with absolute certainty is that very few UK farmers have any clue about the future of sheep farming.

And your research is based on one conversation with a NZ sheep farmer

 

[Beowulf]

And your research is based on one conversation with a NZ sheep farmer

Is it? You must know more about my business than I do. I'm not sure if I should report you for stalking or hire you to do my job for me.

 

[lloyd]

Is it? You must know more about my business than I do. I'm not sure if I should report you for stalking or hire you to do my job for me.

I'd go for option one
You couldn't afford to hire me

 

[Beowulf]

I'd go for option one
You couldn't afford to hire me

Just what I was thinking, I might even have to sell the farm to cover the losses. Oh the horror.

 

[Fossil]

No offence mate but you haven't got a clue what your talking about when it comes to NZ lamb and imports.

NZ sheep numbers are drastically down and will stay down and most of their exports are now going into the Asian markets and will do for some time, only a tiny fraction of NZ lamb is now coming into the UK and most of that is legs.

And the above comes from the AHDB chief man on exports/ imports and whilst I give the AHDB a hard time this chap knows his stuff and is worth every penny of his wages they have been paying him.

Great loss to the industry that he is about to retire from the AHDB.

That’s as may be. It doesn’t get over the fact that the consumer is price sensitive and will substitute lamb for cheaper meats if it gets too expensive.

 

[lloyd]

That’s as may be. It doesn’t get over the fact that the consumer is price sensitive and will substitute lamb for cheaper meats if it gets too expensive.

Perhaps some farmers have become sensitive to rearing lambs for poor market prices.
Im cutting my breeding sheep nos down this year on the back of good prices as i don't like following
the crowd but i certainly don't begrudge farmers these prices .
Some of these hobby farmers need to get in the real world!

 

[farmerclare]

This is Rugby Market trade today, includes a £200 hogg.
Prime Hogg SQQ 307p/kg (1468)
Prime Hoggs to 366p/kg & £200
Spring Lamb SQQ 331p/kg (126)
Spring Lambs to 347p/kg & £161
Calves to £325
Ewes to £160 (853 Avg £103)

 

[gone up the hill]

That’s as may be. It doesn’t get over the fact that the consumer is price sensitive and will substitute lamb for cheaper meats if it gets too expensive.

Farm input prices are rising all the time.

Lamb prices have NOT kept pace with this, sooner or later there had to be a farmgate price correction upwards!

And beef will have to follow as well sooner or later or else UK supply will reduce dramatically!