AHDB weekly market report

Monday 8 February

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UK grain markets

Domestic wheat prices backed off last week. Friday-Friday old crop (May-21) futures were down £5.25/t to close at £202.50/t. New crop (Nov-21) however only lost £1.70/t over the same time period, closing on Friday at £165.50/t. At 11am this morning, May-21 was up £0.50/t and Nov-21 was up £0.75/t from Friday’s close.

Delivered feed wheat in East Anglia for May 21 movement lost £5.00/t on the week, now quoted at £209.00/t. The loses for East Anglian milling wheat for the same movement period were greater, losing £8.00/t, with prices currently at £228.50/t delivered.

On Thursday, the pound traded at £1 = €1.14 against the euro, these are levels not seen since last May. Support has come from the Bank of England saying there was no chance there would be another cut to interest rates in the short term. As well a good vaccination progress giving hope of a strong economic recovery. A stronger pound puts downwards pressure on domestic prices because it means our exports become more expensive and imports are cheaper.


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Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-08-february-2021

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Monday 15 February 2021
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UK grain markets

For the UK, prices dropped to the £200/t support level in the middle of last week, and then hovered around that level. Sterling has continued to gain against the euro and is back up to levels seen last April. This has capped support for grain prices.

New crop values have seen more support than old crop. Shifts in the tax relief available on wheat usage in renewable fuels and the potential for introduction of E10 fuel are supporting the new crop sentiment.

Old crop delivered feed wheat values lost further ground last week in line with futures prices. We can see a further squeeze on premiums for some regions. Lacking demand for milling wheat persists, and premiums fell again on Thursday. The premium for new crop delivered feed wheat (Nov-21) into North Humberside, extended by £1.00/t to £6.50/t over Nov-21 futures week-on-week.

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Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-15-february-2021

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Monday 22 February

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UK grain markets


May-21 UK feed wheat futures rose by a similar amount to US markets last week (Fri-Fri). This was despite sterling rising. On Friday, sterling hits its highest level against the euro since end-Feb 2020 (£1 = €1.1562) and since April 2018 against the US dollar (£1 =$1.4014).

Delivered prices for feed wheat and feed barley rose by similar amounts to UK futures (Thu-Thu). But there were smaller price rises for Group 1 bread wheat. The market is working through stocks built ahead of the EU exit deadline. In addition, demand is curtailed for some market sectors by the coronavirus restrictions.

AHDB will release the next estimates of UK grain supply and demand on Wednesday.

This week, Defra launch surveys to understand on-farm stocks of grain in England and Wales. Completing this survey is imperative to ensuring accurate data this season. Accurate data helps everyone to make better business and policy decisions. Click here to see how we’re working with Defra to improve the accuracy of market data.

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Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-22-february-2021

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Monday 1 March

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UK grain markets

UK feed wheat futures May-21 closed at £207.00/t on Friday, up £1.50/t on the week. New crop (Nov-21) gained £0.75/t Friday to Friday. Prices rose on Thursday fuelled by the news of E10 fuel launching in September 2021 but backed off slightly on Friday.

Delivered bread and feed wheat prices gained alike last week (Thurs-Thurs). For new crop feed wheat (Nov-21), North Humberside prices gained £3.50/t on the week to £179.00/t. Similarly, East Anglia delivery (Nov-21) gained £3.50/t week-on-week to £172.00/t.

Last week, the AHDB released the latest supply and demand estimates for the UK. These figures forecast a wheat surplus of 73Kt, a change from a deficit in November’s estimates.

Why have we moved to a surplus from a deficit? The forecast for domestic consumption for 2020/21 fell by 814Kt from November’s estimate to 12.62Mt. This is mostly on account of a fall in animal feed consumption. This fall more than offset production being cut to the lowest in nearly 40 years at 9.66Mt.

But the surplus is before exports are accounted for. The UK exported 116.7Kt of wheat from July to December, shifting the surplus to a deficit of 43.7Kt. Therefore, the wheat balance remains tight into next season, especially with the potential of added E10 demand.

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Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-01-march-2021

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Monday 8 March
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UK grain markets

UK markets moved in opposite directions last week, cutting the gap from old crop to new crop further. On Friday, the spread between the May-21 and Nov-21 UK feed wheat futures contracts stood at £34.00/t.

UK delivered grain prices generally followed UK feed wheat futures lower (Thurs-Thurs). That said, there was a general narrowing of basis across feed wheat. Since the 7 January, the basis of feed wheat delivered, East Anglia (May-21), has narrowed from £8.00/t over May-21 futures to £5.50/t. This reflects some of the weaker demand for wheat across this period, with contracts being rolled by many consumers. That said, demand is reportedly seen slightly firmer for March.

Weak demand in the milling sector has also eroded the delivered basis. Milling wheat delivered into the North West (May-21) has gone from a £39.50/t premium over futures on 7 January, to £31.50/t on Thursday 4 March. Over the same period, the basis for Nov-21 feed wheat delivered, Yorkshire (North Humberside), has grown by £3.50/t, to £9.00/t on Thursday 4 March.

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Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-08-march-2021

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Monday 15 March

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UK Grain Markets

Both old (May-21) and new crop (Nov-21) futures contracts fell by £1.50/t Friday-to-Friday. Closing at £204.00/t and £170.00/t respectively. The discount from May to November remains at £34.00/t.

UK delivered feed wheat for East Anglia (May-21) lost £1.50/t week-on–week, quoted at £209.50/t. Feed barley (May-21) was quoted at £169.50/t, a discount of £40.00/t to wheat. This discount will continue to support barley’s use in animal feed.

UK delivered bread wheat for the North West (May-21) was down £1.00/t on the week, at £236.00/t, a £32.00/t premium over May-21 futures. For November delivery, North West bread wheat was quoted at £205.00/t, a £35.50/t premium over Nov-21 futures.

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Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-15-march-2021

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Monday 29 March
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UK grain markets

Last week, global wheat markets continued their drop off from the week previous. Domestic prices were unable to prevent drops reaching our markets, with the May-21 contract down £1.75/t to £195.75/t. The May-22 contract dropped £2.75/t to £168.45/t. The USDA reports could provide a technical rebound as May-21 approaches the £190/t mark. However, they could also speed up the downward trend if increased wheat stocks appear in the report.

UK delivered cereal prices felt the wheat market pressure too. Feed wheat into East Anglia fell £4.00/t to £198.50/t for May delivery. Harvest delivered prices fell £2.00/t to be at £160.00/t for East Anglia.

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Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-29-march-2021
Last week's AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report is available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-22-march-2021
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Tuesday 6 April
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UK grain markets
It was a short week of trading for UK markets last week, with Friday a Bank Holiday. In the run up to Wednesday’s USDA reports new crop (Nov-21) feed wheat futures moved lower. The bullish USDA reports saw Nov-21 feed wheat futures move up £3.25/t, on Wednesday. We saw a further downward move on Thursday, with new crop wheat closing at £163.25/t, down £0.75/t Thursday-Thursday.

UK physical trade remained thin. This, combined with the volatility in futures caused by Wednesday’s reports, made pricing UK grain challenging last week. UK delivered values were largely flat or down, with some reductions to new crop delivered premiums.

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Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-06-april-2021
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Monday 12 April

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UK grain markets
UK old crop (May-21) wheat futures closed at £194.00/t on Friday 09 April, gaining £5.65/t from Thursday 01 April. Over the same time period, new crop (Nov-21) futures also gained, although not to the same extent, up £4.25/t, to close on Friday at £167.50/t.

On Wednesday, AHDB released the domestic crop progress report as at end-March. Crop conditions were notably better than the previous year. Winter wheat had 63% rated in “good” or “excellent” condition, compared with 49% at this time last year. Winter barley was rated 60% “good” or “excellent” compared with 45% the previous year.

As at end-March it is thought that 70% of intended spring wheat area had been planted, and 40% of intended spring barley area. An estimated 12% of spring wheat had emerged, all rated in “good” condition, whilst 6% of spring barley had emerged and all was in “good” or “excellent” condition.

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Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-12-april-2021
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Monday 19 April

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UK grain markets

UK Nov-21 feed wheat futures gained £6.45/t last week, closing at the contract’s highest price to date of £173.95/t on Friday.

The first GB wheat production forecast for 2021 suggests GB wheat production could reach 14.57Mt. This is well ahead of last year’s poor crop and 6.6% ahead of the five year average. But, given the very low stocks after this season’s tiny crop, imports will still be required.

New crop delivered feed wheat prices rose in line with the futures market (Thu-Thu), while Nov-21 bread wheat prices gained slightly more than the futures. Uncertainty over the current weather outlook and crop quality is supporting prices at the moment. This uncertainty premium may come out if weather concerns ease as we get closer to harvest.

Old crop (May-21) delivered feed wheat prices made smaller gains, further shrinking the premium to futures due to slow old crop demand. On Thursday, the price for feed wheat delivered in East Anglia in May-21 was £203.00/t, just a £2.00/t premium to May-21 futures. On 8 April, the premium was £3.00/t and on 31 March it was £4.00/t. Feed barley prices rose by less than wheat last week.

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Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-19-april-2021
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Monday 26 April

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UK grain markets

UK markets followed the lead of global price movements last week. New crop (Nov-21) feed wheat futures ended the week at £185.25/t, a rise of £11.30/t Friday-Friday. The UK remains dry which may cause one or two concerns for the new crop, although there is still some time to go until harvest.

The old crop market firmed last week too, though the full rise was not seen in physical markets, with a further squeeze on old crop delivered premiums. East Anglian feed wheat delivered May was quoted on Thursday at £1.50/t over futures, down from £4.00/t over futures on 31 March.

The first tender day for May-21 feed wheat futures is tomorrow (27 April), with open interest of 2,683. The May-21 contract could become very technical as the market looks to balance positions.

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Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-26-april-2021
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Monday 4 May
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UK grain markets
UK May-21 feed wheat futures closed as high as £210.00/t last Monday, before retreating to end the week at £204.50/t. This was down £2.65/t from 23 April. New crop prices followed a similar pattern peaking at £191.30/t last Monday but recorded a smaller Friday-Friday fall of £1.50/t. Delivered prices were lower Thursday to Thursday.

Rain over the weekend and today is welcome for crops after the fourth driest April on record, according to provisional data from the Met Office. The month also had the lowest average minimum temperatures for April in the UK since 1922.

These conditions have also affected grass growth. If cool or dry weather persists, it could increase supplemental feeding to livestock. That could mean a late boost to demand for grain this season.

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Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-04-may-2021
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Monday 10 May

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UK grain markets

Gains in global grain markets last week brought healthy support to both UK wheat futures and UK delivered wheat prices. Delivered prices for new crop saw the largest gains, echoing gains in UK Nov-21 futures. Feed wheat delivered into East Anglia, for harvest delivery, was quoted at £188.00/t as at 06 May, up £9.50/t.

The UK Nov-21 futures contract has dropped £5.40/t this morning to £186.60/t (as at midday), on profit taking and strength in sterling. In the run-up to the WASDE release on Wednesday it is likely that we will see a degree of repositioning by funds, impacting prices.

Human and Industrial cereal usage figures for March-21 were released last week. Milling of imported wheat was at 126.7Kt, up 4% on the month. Imported supplies have been an increased focus for millers this season, with season-to-March usage at 1.13Mt, up 92% on the year.

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Rapeseed market


UK oilseed rape prices firmed considerably last week. Delivered prices (Erith, harvest) firmed £38.00/t, quoted at £469.00/t on Friday. November prices (Erith) also gained £38.00/t, to £477.00/t. These are the highest prices we have ever quoted in our delivered oilseed survey, which dates back to July 2004.

Rising UK prices followed Paris markets, new crop rapeseed futures (Aug-21) gained €36.75/t week-on-week, closing at €540.75 on Friday. Values firmed on the back of weather issues and supply concerns in South America. Cold weather in the UK and EU are also adding to supply worries.

End-March Canadian canola stock were down 37.7% compared with the previous year. This is due to increased demand because of the coronavirus pandemic, and reduced supply for some key exporters.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-10-may-2021
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Monday 17 May
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UK grain markets

UK feed wheat futures (Nov-21) fell back £9.00/t over the course of last week, closing at £183.00/t on Friday. The decline in global grain markets was a key driver for the fall in UK wheat prices, as were gains in the value of sterling against both the euro and the dollar. Old crop futures continued to make gains, as the May-21 contract draws to a close.

This week domestic markets will continue to be focused on global trends, particularly weather and planting/crop progress in North America.

UK physical prices followed the trends in futures last week (Thurs-Thurs). North West milling wheat (Nov-21) was quoted at £213.50/t, down £12.00/t. Feed wheat delivered into East Anglia (Nov-21) was quoted at £181.50/t, down £11.00/t.

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Rapeseed focus
UK delivered rapeseed prices fell slightly last week after successive weeks of gains. Delivered prices for Erith (November) were quoted at £473.00/t, down £4.00/t. Prices for harvest delivery fell slightly less, down £2.50/t, quoted at £466.50/t.

Next season, Black Sea countries are forecast to harvest 6.25Mt of rapeseed, up 135Kt on 2020/21 according to the USDA. This is due to better yield prospects for some of the countries in the group, with the rapeseed planted area unchanged. The EU-27 will look, in part, to the Black Sea region to fulfil its 6.3Mt rapeseed import requirement.

Canada is also a popular rapeseed import origin for the EU-27, accounting for 35.1% of imports in the season to 9 May. Some drought concerns across the Canadian Prairies are affecting canola crop emergence at present. Canadian crop condition reports will be vital for price direction in the coming weeks.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-17-may-2021
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Monday 24 May
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UK grain markets
UK feed wheat futures (Nov-21) fell back £7.75/t on the week (Fri-Fri), to close at £175.25/t. This is the second consecutive weekly fall, following global price falls on easing supply concerns.

New crop physical prices in the UK followed a similar trend (Thurs-Thurs) to global futures.

Feed wheat for East Anglia (Nov-21) fell further last week, down £4.50/t to £177.00/t and £0.50/t below Nov-21 futures. Feed barley into Avonrange (Nov-21) fell £4.50/t on the week too, to £165.50/t on Thursday.

North West bread wheat (Nov-21 delivery) fell by less last week. It was quoted at £210.00/t on Thursday, down £3.50/t on the week.

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Rapeseed focus
Rapeseed values last week followed the greater oilseed complex lower. Pressure in Brent crude oil futures (nearby), which was down 3.3% across the week, added to this.

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-21) closed Friday at €516.50/t, down €18.50/t across the week. Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Nov-21) showed this loss and was quoted Friday at £452.00/t, down £21.00/t Friday-Friday. But, there was added pressure due to the slight strengthening (+0.1%) of sterling against the euro, which closed Friday at £1 = €1.1616.

Canadian canola futures were also down last week, as crop prospects improved and widespread rain across Alberta helped alleviate some soil moisture deficits.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-24-may-2021
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Tuesday 1 June 2021
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UK grain markets

UK feed wheat futures (Nov-21) ended the week slightly lower (Fri-Fri), following the global market.

AHDB published its latest estimates of UK cereal supply and demand on Thursday. They include the first estimates of 2020/21 end of season stocks for wheat and barley. There is a marked year-on-year drop in stocks of both wheat (-51%) and barley (-27%). Meanwhile, oat stocks are set to rise.

Animal feed rations are likely to feature more wheat next season, at the expense of barley. This, and the lower carry-over stocks, means that UK wheat supply and demand will remain tight next season.

For barley, how brewing demand recovers as COVID restrictions ease will be an important factor for supply and demand at the end of this season and into 2021/22. CGA report that 76% of licensed premises were open in GB, at the end of May. This is up from 67% on 17 May and 33% at end-April.

On Thursday, AHDB will release data on cereals used in April.

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Rapeseed market

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-21) followed a similar path to soyabean futures last week, falling early on before recovering ground towards the end of the week. Friday to Friday, Nov-21 rapeseed futures were down €3.75/t, closing at €512.75/t on Friday.

Rapeseed markets remain tight, and the balance of supply and demand through next season will likely keep rapeseed towards the top of the oilseed complex.

The AHDB delivered oilseed rape price survey pegged OSR, delivered into Erith (Nov) at £449.00/t, on Friday, down £3.00/t on the week.

Last week we provided an in-depth update of UK supply and demand by crop. On Wednesday, we focussed on rapeseed, concluding that markets will remain tight and leaving UK prices supported relative to global levels.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-01-june-2021
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Monday 7 June
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UK grain markets
The Nov-21 UK wheat futures contract gained 1.8% Friday-Friday tracking global factors. The contract was worth £177.10/t at Friday’s close, up £3.10/t. The contract has shown signs of continued recovery since hitting a one month-low of £170.50/t on 26 May.

Grain prices increased last week for both old and new crop delivery. Wheat delivered into East Anglia for November was quoted at £198.50/t for Group 1 milling and £177.50/t for feed quality. Delivered barley into East Anglia for November was quoted at £161.00/t, up £3.50/t on the week.

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Rapeseed markets
Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-21) closed Friday at €531.00/t, gaining €18.25/t across the week. Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Nov-21) shadowed these gains and was quoted at £467.50/t on Friday, gaining £18.50/t from 27 May.

Currency differences didn’t alter conversions much as sterling only marginally weakened (-0.02%) against the euro across the week to close Friday at £1 = €1.1636.

Canadian canola futures (Nov-21) closed Friday at CA$763.60/t, gaining CA$49.40/t across the week, closing at a new contract high. Support has been drawn from a heatwave in the Canadian Prairies and the rise in the greater oilseed complex.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-07-june-2021
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Monday 14 June
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UK grain markets

UK feed wheat futures (Nov-21) closed at £175.00/t on Friday, down £2.10/t on the week. UK futures were led by global wheat contracts last week, falling on increased supply forecasts.

The UK’s new crop wheat production was pegged last week by the WASDE as 14.1Mt. Meanwhile, Stratégie Grains forecast UK soft wheat production at 14.8Mt for 2021/22.

Following futures markets, delivered values were also knocked back for both old-crop and new-crop. Feed wheat into East Anglia (Nov-21) was quoted £2.50/t down, to £175.00/t (Thurs-Thurs), £0.50/t below the Nov-21 futures. Group 1 milling into North West (Nov-21) fell £2.00/t, to £208.00/t (Thurs-Thurs). No feed barley prices have been quoted this week due to data validation.

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Rapeseed markets

Rapeseed prices followed the direction of the wider oilseed complex last week. Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-21) fell by €19.25/t, to close at €511.75/t. UK delivered rapeseed (Erith, Nov-21) followed a similar trend, down £11.00/t Friday-Friday, at £456.50/t.

Pressure from the vegetable oil complex outweighed what continues to be a tight market. That said, Thursday’s USDA report did make upward revisions to EU rapeseed, to 17.2Mt (+600Kt), and Australian rapeseed (+200Kt).

Another region that will be watched closely is Canada. Canadian rapeseed is currently being planted, however, a crop progress report from Statistics Canada last week suggested that crop conditions are broadly average to lower than the 1987-2020 average. Key regions in Canada remain dry.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdbsiteauth.ahdbdigital.org.uk/news/market-report-14-june-2021
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Monday 21 June
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UK grain markets
Favourable weather conditions have bolstered potential production prospects for our domestic new crop. Talk is heading more towards 15Mt for the wheat crop, which would help to offset tight starting stocks and potentially allow for exports from South/East England.

The UK market followed the global market as new crop wheat futures (Nov-21) closed at £172.65/t, down £2.35/t across the week.

The pressure on old crop values was greater as delivered feed wheat (Jun-21, into East Anglia) was quoted at £195.00/t, down £7.50/t across a very thin week of trading. Old-crop prices are converging downwards towards new-crop as we head closer to harvest. Meanwhile, new crop (Nov-21, delivered into East Anglia) was quoted at £171.00/t, down £4.00/t across the week.

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Rapeseed focus
UK delivered prices fell sharply last week. On 18 June, rapeseed delivered to Erith in Nov-21 was reported at £420.50/t, £36.00/t less than on 11 June, and the lowest price since 9 April. It’s still £73.00/t higher than the price of Nov-20 rapeseed on 19 June 2020.

The fall in delivered prices (Friday-Friday) is larger than the Paris futures market, which lost approximately £24.00/t. The AHDB survey is carried out at lunchtime before the world market recovered partially on Friday afternoon due to high US export sales of soyabeans.

The German rapeseed crop is forecast at 3.67Mt by the German association of farm cooperatives. This is up slightly from the May forecast of 3.62Mt and 5% larger than last year. But, in Ukraine, the crop was trimmed from 2.51Mt to 2.46Mt by APK-Inform due to wet weather. This is now 6% smaller than last year.

The global rapeseed crop in 2021/22 is forecast to be slightly bigger than demand currently (USDA). But, a bigger global crop is largely dependent on a bigger Canadian crop. We find out the Canadian planted area on 29 June.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-21-june-2021
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Written by Charlotte Cunningham from CPM Magazine

JCB has launched new Fastrac 4000 and 8000 Series tractors with an all-new electronics infrastructure which is claimed to deliver higher levels of performance. According to JCB, the new Fastrac iCon operator environment has three key features: iConfigure – creating a bespoke control experience for every operator iConnect – integrating advanced precision agriculture technology iControl – redefining operation through new driveline software The 175hp to 348hp (133kW to 260kW) Fastracs feature the new iCon armrest console and touch-screen display to provide flexibility in operator allocation and operator information, as well as a new transmission control strategy to enhance operator comfort and powertrain efficiency, says the manufacturer...
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