Are land prices on the way down?

[Ribble]

Considering possible changes to subsidies, trade policy, and other government actions, do you think land values will fall over the next 5 years?

 

[PSQ]

Considering possible changes to subsidies, trade policy, and other government actions, do you think land values will fall over the next 5 years?

If the current 'zero rate' for farming businesses due in inheritance tax is changed, then land will once again become the 'scabby queen' of assets.

And if the 'Labour' left ever introduce 'Georgist' land taxation, there will be a wholesale rush for the exit.

Baring in mind there is a very real threat of a Covid 'Supertax' looming, so when it comes to land value and perceived wealth then anything is possible.

 

[teslacoils]

Nope.

 

[Formatted]

No plenty of urban buyers with expensive houses looking to move to the countryside

 

[Hilly]

Depend in my area on forestry grants as well as inheritance rules , most farms here end up planted due to both benefits .

 

[Dry Rot]

I would say that inflation is a certainty. If Boris needs more money, he will print it. And he does, so he will. So real assets will appreciate in the long term.

 

[lloyd]

Perhaps your thread should be are they on the way up ?
Just look how the price of gold has taken off again.
Money looking for solid assets .

 

[spin cycle]

heading down gets my vote.....1/ less land for development needed as retail struggles...offices become less needed as ppl work remotely.....house builders will switch to developing these sites 2/ subsidies going...you cant suck £3bn out of a sector without consequences

 

[Ribble]

heading down gets my vote.....1/ less land for development needed as retail struggles...offices become less needed as ppl work remotely.....house builders will switch to developing these sites 2/ subsidies going...you cant suck £3bn out of a sector without consequences

Commercial space isn't looking too optimistic I agree! Lot's of businesses notifying staff they will be permanently working from home.

I suppose that takes some hope value from agricultural land.

 

[Ribble]

If the current 'zero rate' for farming businesses due in inheritance tax is changed, then land will once again become the 'scabby queen' of assets.

And if the 'Labour' left ever introduce 'Georgist' land taxation, there will be a wholesale rush for the exit.

Baring in mind there is a very real threat of a Covid 'Supertax' looming, so when it comes to land value and perceived wealth then anything is possible.

I think a good chunk of the land price is due to IHT benefits. Without that the numbers must look a lot different. Unless of course you're a Duke with a trust.

 

[teslacoils]

I think a good chunk of the land price is due to IHT benefits. Without that the numbers must look a lot different. Unless of course you're a Duke with a trust.

But unless they also scrap business property relief, than you still get the iht benefits on the vast majority. Those with big dosh have it all registered overseas anyway.

 

[Frodo]

With interest rates next to nothing and indeed with the Boris loan actually zero can’t see them falling.

 

[teslacoils]

Record gold price today. Apparently folk are flocking to it.

 

[Tubbylew]

If the current 'zero rate' for farming businesses due in inheritance tax is changed, then land will once again become the 'scabby queen' of assets.

And if the 'Labour' left ever introduce 'Georgist' land taxation, there will be a wholesale rush for the exit.

Baring in mind there is a very real threat of a Covid 'Supertax' looming, so when it comes to land value and perceived wealth then anything is possible.

I'm not sure there will be a covid super tax tbh, every country in the world is in the same boat, so who is borrowing off who? And who is it paid back to? Heavy taxation in one big hit would surely damage any kind of recovery in the world economy, which dosen't appear to be anytime soon in any country, much more likely is it's pushed down the road a little and our grandkids will pickup the tab, wasn't george osborne the incumbent chancellor when the first world war was paid off? Either that or they'll go after that bezos fella he's got pots and pots, so i'm told.

 

[midlandslad]

A lot depends on ELMS and whether it is a financially sustainable replacement for BPS. If not there will be an increase in supply as a lot of farmers rely on that annual Xmas present from the BPS. Also, if the banks lose their appetite there will also be an increase in supply. Increased supply and status demand will reduce value. It is all about the supply, which is helping maintain current values.

 

[DrWazzock]

Grade 3 here isn’t selling very fast at £6k an acre. It goes eventually but seems to be hard work to shift it and not sure what price they actually achieve.
I don’t think people are rushing to buy land just for the sake of the security or the tax relief. It still has to have decent agricultural, residential, amenity or development potential. With BPS taken away and no viable break crops due to government sabotage of pesticide options a lot of that land won’t actually be worth farming though ELMS might provide some sort of return as yet unknown.

 

[farmerm]

A lot depends on ELMS and whether it is a financially sustainable replacement for BPS. If not there will be an increase in supply as a lot of farmers rely on that annual Xmas present from the BPS. Also, if the banks lose their appetite there will also be an increase in supply. Increased supply and status demand will reduce value. It is all about the supply, which is helping maintain current values.

Penny hasn't dropped yet? Any farmer who's plan involve relying on ELMs need to wise up quick!

ELMS is not a replacement for BPS. ELMS is a replacement for ELS.

 

[Tubbylew]

Penny hasn't dropped yet? Any farmer who's plan involve relying on ELMs need to wise up quick!

ELMS is not a replacement for BPS. ELMS is a replacement for ELS.

I can't like that post enough!

 

[midlandslad]

Penny hasn't dropped yet? Any farmer who's plan involve relying on ELMs need to wise up quick!

ELMS is not a replacement for BPS. ELMS is a replacement for ELS.

Understood, however, the government have committed the same level of support as they currently pay with BPS to the new schemes.

Most farms would need to see greater than 50% of BPS come in as ELMS to stand a chance of surviving in my opinion.

 

[Tubbylew]

Understood, however, the government have committed the same level of support as they currently pay with BPS to the new schemes.

Most farms would need to see greater than 50% of BPS come in as ELMS to stand a chance of surviving in my opinion.

I belive what they have committed to is the same amount of money in the pot, it is not neccessarily the case that it will be directed at farmers, more likely "accredited advisors"