Are you all depressed ?

[Kiwi Pete]

Any landowner has seen a ten fold increase in their primary asset in the last 30 years, regardless of whatever mess you might of made of the farming business.

You might argue that is a change for the better if you’re in that position? Value is all relative of course, until you chose to cash out. If you sell to buy somewhere else, it’s just moving bigger numbers.

I was looking through the old farm's accounts the other day, Dad sold his entire lamb crop in 1988 for just under the figure I sold a penful (less than 30) of sheep for this year.
Avg price in 88 was $6.83 for his lamb, compared with $272 for one of our old rams - 88 was the crunch year for sheep farms here, with drought and some farms getting a bill for killing their cull ewes at the meatworks

Based on that, and similar COP, hard not to be positive. The biggest positive is we're now down to 3 ewes

 

[holywell farmer]

The last few months have been difficult for a lot of people, feeling depressed is not a good thing
I myself have got fed up a few times but I have technics to cope I read a book or go for a walk if I feel stresse.
Friend gave me a tip just take time out during the day to think about things.

 

[Tarw Coch]

Any landowner has seen a ten fold increase in their primary asset in the last 30 years, regardless of whatever mess you might of made of the farming business.

You might argue that is a change for the better if you’re in that position? Value is all relative of course, until you chose to cash out. If you sell to buy somewhere else, it’s just moving bigger numbers.

Reckon you’re a bit high there at ten times based on a farm and land we’ve bought in 83 and 93, five times would be more like it, and quite a bit of that increase will be lost in inflation, how does the cost of an acre of land then and now compare in what it will buy in other things, how many loafs of bread or pints of beer?
I believe you are a similar age to me @neilo, some of my first pints of beer were 73p a pint, I reckon that’s gone up in similar proportions to our land.

Not that land ownership has been a bad place to invest/tie money up, far from it but I reckon houses will have seen a greater rise than land over that sort of timescale.

 

[glasshouse]

Any landowner has seen a ten fold increase in their primary asset in the last 30 years, regardless of whatever mess you might of made of the farming business.

You might argue that is a change for the better if you’re in that position? Value is all relative of course, until you chose to cash out. If you sell to buy somewhere else, it’s just moving bigger numbers.

Nice if u own it
Disaster for tenants aspiring to buy

 

[neilo]

Reckon you’re a bit high there at ten times based on a farm and land we’ve bought in 83 and 93, five times would be more like it, and quite a bit of that increase will be lost in inflation, how does the cost of an acre of land then and now compare in what it will buy in other things, how many loafs of bread or pints of beer?
I believe you are a similar age to me @neilo, some of my first pints of beer were 73p a pint, I reckon that’s gone up in similar proportions to our land.

Not that land ownership has been a bad place to invest/tie money up, far from it but I reckon houses will have seen a greater rise than land over that sort of timescale.

Plenty of good (arable) land that was struggling to find bids of £1000/ac in 1990, before IACS came in.

We bid that on a 500ac block nearby, with cottage, cattle buildings and a half decent corn store/drier. We were the only bid, which sat there for several months before it was withdrawn from the market as nobody would bite higher.

 

[lloyd]

Plenty of good (arable) land that was struggling to find bids of £1000/ac in 1990, before IACS came in.

We bid that on a 500ac block nearby, with cottage, cattle buildings and a half decent corn store/drier. We were the only bid, which sat there for several months before it was withdrawn from the market as nobody would bite higher.

Just to add a bit of balance plenty of land was sold at £2.5k plus in 1984.
Interest rates were high at the time too.

 

[Tarw Coch]

Plenty of good (arable) land that was struggling to find bids of £1000/ac in 1990, before IACS came in.

We bid that on a 500ac block nearby, with cottage, cattle buildings and a half decent corn store/drier. We were the only bid, which sat there for several months before it was withdrawn from the market as nobody would bite higher.

Arguably it wasn’t for sale at £1000 acre if they withdrew it for sale after being offered that figure.
Lowest I know of any around here was £1800 acre and that was on the market for quite a long time. Indeed in that case, a buyer couldn’t be found for the whole farm and it was sold in lots, a good sized farm of 3/400 acres, possibly more

 

[Tarw Coch]

Just to add a bit of balance plenty of land was sold at £2.5k plus in 1984.
Interest rates were high at the time too.

Payed over 3k in 83

 

[neilo]

Payed over 3k in 93

Likewise, but it had jumped significantly as soon subsidy payments came in. Short term arable rents (even on the aforementioned farm) went straight to £185/ac iirc.

 

[neilo]

Arguably it wasn’t for sale at £1000 acre if they withdrew it for sale after being offered that figure.
Lowest I know of any around here was £1800 acre and that was on the market for quite a long time. Indeed in that case, a buyer couldn’t be found for the whole farm and it was sold in lots, a good sized farm of 3/400 acres, possibly more

Probably not, but my point was that it wasn’t attracting offers at that price at the time, despite plenty of people viewing. @Walterp was one, who had traveled a good distance to walk it.

Farming was deep in the doldrums back then, and even that £1k offer would have been a big stretch for us, despite milking 300 cows on an AHA tenancy as well as having another 150ac owned.

There was plenty of bare grassland available locally for less too, and that was the Cotswolds.

 

[neilo]

Just to add a bit of balance plenty of land was sold at £2.5k plus in 1984.
Interest rates were high at the time too.

There was, but prices had fallen by 1990, as land value was linked to Farming value then, and lots of fans had been hit by the proverbial in the late 80’s. BSE and exchange rates being the main ones.

 

[Bossfarmer]

not trivializing anything - my reply was to a post that suggested the owner of a 200ac farm was poor ....................... sat on a 2mil plus asset in many areas that's frankly just a ridiculous thing to suggest

its ridiculous from an accountants point of view but not from a farmers, most farmers wont count the value of the farm as its not for sale under any circumstance and many would die before they sell it as doing so would mean they are a failure and are selling their kids future, therefore income is how they define wealth

 

[Tarw Coch]

Likewise, but it had jumped significantly as soon subsidy payments came in. Short term arable rents (even on the aforementioned farm) went straight to £185/ac iirc.

Just re read my previous post and have edited it, meant 83

 

[Mr Mackay]

its ridiculous from an accountants point of view but not from a farmers, most farmers wont count the value of the farm as its not for sale under any circumstance and many would die before they sell it as doing so would mean they are a failure and are selling their kids future, therefore income is how they define wealth

True , you are there to use that 'asset' to live on yourself and improve if possible ,to hand onto other generations!! Now if they p*** it away then thats their look out ,but alas most folk look at the cash in value !!
Once its gone -its gone ,if you sell it!

I am old fashioned I know

 

[Tarw Coch]

its ridiculous from an accountants point of view but not from a farmers, most farmers wont count the value of the farm as its not for sale under any circumstance and many would die before they sell it as doing so would mean they are a failure and are selling their kids future, therefore income is how they define wealth

Not exactly the same but plenty of homeowners in a similar situation, a lot of money tied up in their house but it’s not easily accessed.

 

[lloyd]

There was, but prices had fallen by 1990, as land value was linked to Farming value then, and lots of fans had been hit by the proverbial in the late 80’s. BSE and exchange rates being the main ones.

This farm was purchased in 91 and BSE had a major
affect on the industry but land price varied from sub £1k
in parts of Warwickshire on heavy clay to over £2.5k in better land areas.
I've noticed that some of the £12k plus land prices achieved recently are for some very
nice land parcels that wouldn't tend to come for sale on a depressed market.

 

[jendan]

Probably not, but my point was that it wasn’t attracting offers at that price at the time, despite plenty of people viewing. @Walterp was one, who had traveled a good distance to walk it.

Farming was deep in the doldrums back then, and even that £1k offer would have been a big stretch for us, despite milking 300 cows on an AHA tenancy as well as having another 150ac owned.

There was plenty of bare grassland available locally for less too, and that was the Cotswolds.

What has happened to the farm since? £500K milking 300 cows with 150acres as security should have been quite do able at the time.We did quite well in the 80s,90s.Increased the cows from 100 to 200 and put a decent parlour in.Paid off a small 120 acre farm by 1999,which was 25 years AMC @14%. It all seemed to turn to sh!t after that with the 2001 Foot and Mouth.We didnt get it but the after effects ruined our business.

 

[neilo]

What has happened to the farm since? £500K milking 300 cows with 150acres as security should have been quite do able at the time.We did quite well in the 80s,90s.Increased the cows from 100 to 200 and put a decent parlour in.Paid off a small 120 acre farm by 1999,which was 25 years AMC @14%. It all seemed to turn to sh!t after that with the 2001 Foot and Mouth.We didnt get it but the after effects ruined our business.

It was farmed on short term lets for years after, then the owner sold his big house down the road off and built a new house (with a lift!) where the cottage had been. When he died the farm was eventually sold, for £8k/ac iirc, to a guy that has several such farms around the country, and the house never lived in. The new owner kept the short term tenant farming it, as well as growing a hundred or so acres of haylage for one of his horse places, which I then grazed overwinter (foc).

No idea what's going on there now though.

 

[egbert]

Payed over 3k in 83

I bought moderate arable for £1k/acre in - I think- '93.
It remained around that figure for much of the decade. (still kicking myself for not buying the 76 acres opposite for £100k in '98 or '99)

The moral is... you wanted to be selling in in '83, and buying a decade later.

@Clive ......are you too young to have seen this cycle?

 

[neilo]

I bought moderate arable for £1k/acre in - I think- '93.
It remained around that figure for much of the decade. (still kicking myself for not buying the 76 acres opposite for £100k in '98 or '99)

The moral is... you wanted to be selling in in '83, and buying a decade later.

@Clive ......are you too young to have seen this cycle?

I'm sure that can't be right. I regularly read on here that ground never drops in value, they're not making any more of it you know....