Arla

[Homesy]

Brilliant you must be right, you have so clearly explained why my reasoning is wrong. Thanks.

WTO don't impose export tariffs.
If we have have a hard Brexit the pound will fall making imports much more expensive.
Where are you getting our information from ? Who has said we will give up an ace card at the negotiating table with the EU by allowing their food in without tariffs and allowing them to impose them on our exports ? Show me you evidence.
You said before that Ticker exports to the EU accounts for 10% of UK production LIES ! 10% would account for more than 180% of all cheddar exported globally.
We import several times the amount of food from the EU than we export. Ever since we joined the EU the trade deficit has got worse every single year without fail. According to the EUs own figures 95% of world growth over the next 20 years, is going to occur outside the EU. We cannot strike any deal for trade without say so. Whole thing is nuts.
The EU is dying. It's an Empire. Empires always fall. Look what's happening in France, Belgium, Italy, Greece Poland Hungary Even in the Netherlands the prime minister has taken to the papers to warn against a Nexit. The further away from it we are the less it will damage us.
I don't doubt the EU will punish us and it may hurt for a while but we will survive. We did before the EU, we will after.

Now you show me some hard facts not Remainer spin and lies.

 

[lazy farmer]

So the pound falling is a hard fact now. Is it ?

 

[More to life]

So the pound falling is a hard fact now. Is it ?

Do you seriously think it won’t under a hard brexit?

 

[Alfred]

So the pound falling is a hard fact now. Is it ?

I'd say it's only been going one way since the brexit vote wouldn't you? Fact.
And surely you would be hard pressed to be optimistic about it's value increasing if we bumped out with no deal in March.

 

[lazy farmer]

I'd say it's only been going one way since the brexit vote wouldn't you? Fact.
And surely you would be hard pressed to be optimistic about it's value increasing if we bumped out with no deal in March. View attachment 749910

No I wouldn’t. 2 things I would suggest a hard brexit is already priced in and 2 markets hate uncertainty so any decision will provide stability.

 

[farmer on a bike]

WTO don't impose export tariffs.
If we have have a hard Brexit the pound will fall making imports much more expensive.
Where are you getting our information from ? Who has said we will give up an ace card at the negotiating table with the EU by allowing their food in without tariffs and allowing them to impose them on our exports ? Show me you evidence.
You said before that Ticker exports to the EU accounts for 10% of UK production LIES ! 10% would account for more than 180% of all cheddar exported globally.
We import several times the amount of food from the EU than we export. Ever since we joined the EU the trade deficit has got worse every single year without fail. According to the EUs own figures 95% of world growth over the next 20 years, is going to occur outside the EU. We cannot strike any deal for trade without say so. Whole thing is nuts.
The EU is dying. It's an Empire. Empires always fall. Look what's happening in France, Belgium, Italy, Greece Poland Hungary Even in the Netherlands the prime minister has taken to the papers to warn against a Nexit. The further away from it we are the less it will damage us.
I don't doubt the EU will punish us and it may hurt for a while but we will survive. We did before the EU, we will after.

Now you show me some hard facts not Remainer spin and lies.

The WTO set the maximum tariff for each item traded. Each country trading on WTO terms decides at what level they will impose on imports from zero up to the WTO maximum. Both Gove and Johnson were quite clear in the Brexit campaign that cheap food imports would be a benefit of brexit. Gove has continued to mention it.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1016251/brexit-cheap-food-price-cuts-farming-ecomony.
His only concern is around port issues in the press yesterday, no talk of us putting tariffs on food.
Many other countries already have tariffs in place on imports and are unlikely to reduce them for the UK without a trade deal. So when I talked about export tariffs, I meant the import tariffs set by other countries that we may want to export to. Currently we do this at much reduced tariffs because of EU trade agreements which we will no longer be party to. I was clear about this in my earlier posts, which you seem to have read but instead you decide to deliberately twist the short and to the point post I made summing it up.

I agree abut the pound being weak, but that will eventually lead to inflation, immediately in bought in feed, fuel and fertiliser. Yes it will help but only for so long, it maybe the one thing that gives us the breathing space to sort ourselves out if we are lucky.

If you looked at the link you would have understood that in total 10% of U.K. Dairy production is exported, I was giving tickler exports as being an example of what was exported. If you reread it, I was quite clear. The link I provided showed the truth of the export total. SO NOT LiES. FACTS.

I have given you my reasoning in a number of posts. You seem to believe our politians will cause food prices to increase using tariffs so they have a stronger negiotiating position. I hope you are right, but judging by the terrrible job of negotiation they have made so far it seems unlikely, and more to the point is against what I have heard any of them say.

 

[coomoo]

I’ll revise my earlier optimism 3 down

 

[Alfred]

No I wouldn’t. 2 things I would suggest a hard brexit is already priced in and 2 markets hate uncertainty so any decision will provide stability.

A hard brexit will not have been already factored into the value of the pound.
A hard brexit will see the pound being sold off.

 

[cornishfarmer]

To the $ maybe. € will also be in trouble. But the $ is a safe haven but will struggle next year so if they all weaken we will be at a status quo. Next year will be hard on exeryone and cash will be king

 

[farmer on a bike]

To the $ maybe. € will also be in trouble. But the $ is a safe haven but will struggle next year so if they all weaken we will be at a status quo. Next year will be hard on exeryone and cash will be king

I have been told to expect the euro to fall as well as the £ in a hard Brexit, both against the dollar. I can however understand why the dollar may weaken itself, but that was not suggested in the views I was given.

 

[coomoo]

I have been told to expect the euro to fall as well as the £ in a hard Brexit, both against the dollar. I can however understand why the dollar may weaken itself.

Put us out of our misery fob can’t wait till 12

 

[farmer on a bike]

Put us out of our misery fob can’t wait till 12

I think you may have to wait a bit longer, our conference calls have been put back, so I still don't know. Whether that will delay the announcement I don't know. This sort of thing happens usually around the getting the wording of the explanation and expectation setting right and matching in all four languages before it is announced.

 

[watcher72]

I think you may have to wait a bit longer, our conference calls have been put back, so I still don't know. Whether that will delay the announcement I don't know. This sort of thing happens usually around the getting the wording of the explanation and expectation setting right and matching in all four languages before it is announced.

Getting the wording right?
A fall is a fall
A rise is a rise
Stand on is stand on.

All have been done before in every language.

Expectation is irrelevant fact and explanation is key.

 

[dairyrow]

good for them. might get the press release just before they knock off. merry xmas owners!

 

[farmer on a bike]

Getting the wording right?
A fall is a fall
A rise is a rise
Stand on is stand on.

All have been done before in every language.

Expectation is irrelevant fact and explanation is key.

A lot of farmers look very carefully at the wording and meaning of the forward expectations. You only have to follow threads on here to see just how picky farmers can be about what they read into anything not quite worded precisely. I know , I can be just as guilty!

 

[dairyrow]

the problem you've got is straight up honesty has surely got to the best policy. how ever you say it isn't really going to matter especially bad news. ive seen 2 threads on fb about arla and price cuts. one was about the last cut which i didnt think was the end of the world, the other was from a danish producer blaming arla and is crown the bacon lot? selling danish farmers down a river just to expand abroad. that post and video was deleted before i could post it on here. it was a bloody big cow shed standing empty.

 

[lazy farmer]

good for them. might get the press release just before they knock off. merry xmas owners!

Seriously? How to upset non Arla members in one easy sentence.
Complain about your milk buyer cutting its massively sector leading milk price. And then complain about the fact that not everyone else is working Xmas day. Well done

 

[dairyrow]

im not. all signals are its going down. i havent had milk quality results from the 16th dec and i think it happened last year as well. doesnt bother me about xmas i actually kind of enjoy the peace and quiet of it. but i do think they should treat owners better and just release the price.

 

[lazy farmer]

Can you please explain to me the fascination Arla farmers seem to have with the release of next months milk price. The difference it actually makes on a monthly basis is tiny.

 

[jimmer]

Can you please explain to me the fascination Arla farmers seem to have with the release of next months milk price. The difference it actually makes on a monthly basis is tiny.

If it's really that important then there are other bigger issues that need addressing on farm first