Beef / Lamb & Pig Price Tracker

[fgc325j]

Brexit has had nothing directly to do with the sheep trade.

Firstly for trade apart from increased paper work it has never happened. We continue to comply with all of the EU regulations for sheep meat so we effectively have a free market.
As has been pointed out the weakness of sterling has been a help in increased prices, but is a double edged sword as inputs are much more expensive.
Sheep numbers have declined here and in other parts of the world for different reasons. Drought, ageing farmers, poor profitability, low wool prices, and for a while Swine Flu in China etc. So causing a supply and demand imbalance.

Sheep numbers take time to increase, unlike pigs and it will be 4 or 5 years before we start to see over production that will reduce prices significantly. So if these breeding sheep this Autumn are over £200 they may be £50 culls in 6 years time, so once again we will have depreciation.

The single greatest concern at present are the shenanigans over the Irish trade deal, if the EU get really fed up with our politicians reneging on an international deal then overnight we could see the threatened tariffs being put in place. Then watch what happens to the lamb price!!

We also don't yet have any BCP's (Border Control Posts) in France at our closest points of entry so we are unable to export any stock alive. Ironically we have none on this side of the Channel either so there are no checks on imports!!

From what i've read about farming in Ireland, the amount of lamb exported into the Uk has halved.

 

[livestock 1]

Brexit has had nothing directly to do with the sheep trade.

Firstly for trade apart from increased paper work it has never happened. We continue to comply with all of the EU regulations for sheep meat so we effectively have a free market.
As has been pointed out the weakness of sterling has been a help in increased prices, but is a double edged sword as inputs are much more expensive.
Sheep numbers have declined here and in other parts of the world for different reasons. Drought, ageing farmers, poor profitability, low wool prices, and for a while Swine Flu in China etc. So causing a supply and demand imbalance.

Sheep numbers take time to increase, unlike pigs and it will be 4 or 5 years before we start to see over production that will reduce prices significantly. So if these breeding sheep this Autumn are over £200 they may be £50 culls in 6 years time, so once again we will have depreciation.

The single greatest concern at present are the shenanigans over the Irish trade deal, if the EU get really fed up with our politicians reneging on an international deal then overnight we could see the threatened tariffs being put in place. Then watch what happens to the lamb price!!

We also don't yet have any BCP's (Border Control Posts) in France at our closest points of entry so we are unable to export any stock alive. Ironically we have none on this side of the Channel either so there are no checks on imports!!

What’s the situation with current exports to the eu? And elsewhere

 

[Poorbuthappy]

Piece on Today program on R4 this morning about a bakery in Bolton and rising costs.
The owner opened by saying beef skirt which is their mainstay in their steak pies had doubled in price to £8/ kg, but even then they couldn't get it.
Who's having all this extra if it's doubled?

 

[sheepwise]

Go on to main TFF menu scroll down to find BFU section and the details should come up .

There will be updates on progress as we go along .
An initial 'discussion meeting was had by Zoom a couple of weeks back by the 'founding members' where the basics were talked about and how to move forward .
Once we have a clearer way forward , hopefully after tonight , then more details will be going out .
It's very difficult as everyone is very busy and there is a lot going on behind the scenes .

So no different from any other union then. All the good practical people too busy running their own businesses to get involved to any decent level.

 

[Hfd Cattle]

So no different from any other union then. All the good practical people too busy running their own businesses to get involved to any decent level.

Let's not be too critical too soon ... there are quite a few putting a lot of hours plus doing their own work ......trying to get some sort of format up and running .

Hopefully enough 'good practical people' will sign up and pledge a bit of help to even the workload up .
It's going to be a long hard slog ......but one step at a time

 

[muleman]

Ok, it must just have been coincidence the way lamb values have almost doubled starting the day after the brexit vote.

 

[Henarar]

Piece on Today program on R4 this morning about a bakery in Bolton and rising costs.
The owner opened by saying beef skirt which is their mainstay in their steak pies had doubled in price to £8/ kg, but even then they couldn't get it.
Who's having all this extra if it's doubled?

perhaps the same people that had all the extra for lamb over the years

 

[Henarar]

Ok, it must just have been coincidence the way lamb values have almost doubled starting the day after the brexit vote.

when you consider they were so called meant to halve

 

[Henarar]

Ok, it must just have been coincidence the way lamb values have almost doubled starting the day after the brexit vote.

but don't worry the eu supporters will be along with some mitigating factors.
what's the price of bull sh1t these days ?

 

[muleman]

but don't worry the eu supporters will be along with some mitigating factors.
what's the price of bull sh1t these days ?

Its not really about what or who you support , its just facts.
Sheep values have doubled since brexit, whether its because of brexit , or because of the effects of brexit who knows, but no sheep farmer can say brexit has been bad for the industry.

 

[Henarar]

Its not really about what or who you support , its just facts.
Sheep values have doubled since brexit, whether its because of brexit , or because of the effects of brexit who knows, but no sheep farmer can say brexit has been bad for the industry.

Quite,
I support remain by the way

 

[muleman]

Quite,
I support remain by the way

Well i know nothing about politics, ive always thought brexit mustve helped our job a bit , but as said above, maybe its just been a huge coincidence that the upturn started, literally the morning after the vote.

 

[Henarar]

Well i know nothing about politics, ive always thought brexit mustve helped our job a bit , but as said above, maybe its just been a huge coincidence that the upturn started, literally the morning after the vote.

It would have to be

 

[Aspiring Peasants]

What’s the situation with current exports to the eu? And elsewhere

I posted this on 2nd May from FG

"Just read in FG that exports of lamb have reached pre-Brexit levels with volumes up 37% year on year. The EU was the main destination. Perhaps explains why the prices for export type lambs and hoggs has been so good this year."

 

[livestock 1]

It sounded as if we were lead to believe that lamb were better than they could have been pre brexit when infact the reality was being in the eu kept lamb prices low due to their cheap food policies
When you look into the role of the eu part of it is to sustain cheap food and some of their policies favour that
Cheap food is seen as a way to keep people happy and avoid unrest

 

[Frank-the-Wool]

What’s the situation with current exports to the eu? And elsewhere

This is always the quieter time for exports of lamb as the French have their own lamb for a short period of time until July, then as everyone in Europe goes on holiday it is erratic.
NZ currency is very weak at the moment so more may come in from there but I doubt it is significant.
Providing the politics don't upset the trade with the EU then there is no reason to think that demand will be much different.

On the issue of the beef skirt and who is making the profit as it has doubled in price, then you should look at the value of cull cows which have almost doubled in value and with extra costs on the abattoir industry is probably the explanation. I am told that steak has been on offer in Smithfield as sales are slow!!

 

[serf]

what's the price of bull sh1t these days ?

You'll be surprised , it's gone up quite a lot ......
inflation !

 

[livestock 1]

 

[Nithsdale]

Well i know nothing about politics, ive always thought brexit mustve helped our job a bit , but as said above, maybe its just been a huge coincidence that the upturn started, literally the morning after the vote.

The lamb job was a disaster the weeks/months running upto when we were first supposed to leave the EU in late 2019, with no deal!!
As soon as the extension was agreed, prices rocketed.


It hasn't all been merry like you suggest and I'm surprised you've forgotten how bad it was looking at times

 

[livestock 1]

Now then what’s trailing on here?
Both blue and red lines on the pig chart are 2022 the grey lines are 2021^^^^