Bps and corn prices

[Mr Tree]

Morning,

It’s a constant thought and concern for me and must be for most others.

We all start to lose SFP this year which will have a massive impact on a tenanted arable unit such as ours.

yes we are diversified business but to unsustainably ‘prop’ a failing business model of arable production surely is not the way.

Stewardship will have to be brought in swiftly but where will myself and surely everyone else find the shortfalls?


Arable farming with all the investments in fert,chem and machinery certainly doesn’t make it profitable for re investment even with SFP!

Will corn prices reflect our losses? My opinion in no!
Will my landlord ‘give’ me the land to farm?

So what options are people thinking to create sustainability on the land they farm?

 

[Barleymow]

Grain prices are globally dictated what we produce a drip in the ocean

 

[7610 super q]

Don't worry, I'm sure straw prices will make up the shortfall......

 

[teslacoils]

Ffs just so long as we don't have to sell at export prices. Keep on being a net importer and we will be right.

 

[GeorgeK]

Rent will have to fall through the floor, it beggars belief there is some talk of increases, do these people inhabit an entirely different planet? Round me once BPS has gone on grade 3 land and no dairy/AD if it is to be looked after and sustainable for the farmer rent wants to be £30/a arable, grazing very very little if kept tidy.

 

[spin cycle]

Rent will have to fall through the floor, it beggars belief there is some talk of increases, do these people inhabit an entirely different planet? Round me once BPS has gone on grade 3 land and no dairy/AD if it is to be looked after and sustainable for the farmer rent wants to be £30/a arable, grazing very very little if kept tidy.

i think you're being a bit 'optimistic' at £30/ac for arable....put to grass even i would pay £50 ......1/2t wheat /ac for arable is fairest way i think.....1/2 lamb/ac for grass perhaps....priced sept 1st and 1st jan respectively perhaps

 

[Timbo]

Rent will have to fall through the floor, it beggars belief there is some talk of increases, do these people inhabit an entirely different planet? Round me once BPS has gone on grade 3 land and no dairy/AD if it is to be looked after and sustainable for the farmer rent wants to be £30/a arable, grazing very very little if kept tidy.

If you believe landlords will be substantially dropping their rent figure, you're on another planet.

 

[Terry75]

Being a smallish 500 acre tenant farmer with a main aha and a couple of fbt's.of grade 3 land. I think i am going to have to quit the fbt's. I cant see in the short term the landlords wishing to reduce the rent. I really don't like the idea of potentially loosing money over the nect few years whilst waiting for everything to find a new level.

 

[Mr Tree]

Being a smallish 500 acre tenant farmer with a main aha and a couple of fbt's.of grade 3 land. I think i am going to have to quit the fbt's. I cant see in the short term the landlords wishing to reduce the rent. I really don't like the idea of potentially loosing money over the nect few years whilst waiting for everything to find a new level.

That’s similar to us
We are thinking the same !

 

[copse]

Rent will have to fall through the floor, it beggars belief there is some talk of increases, do these people inhabit an entirely different planet? Round me once BPS has gone on grade 3 land and no dairy/AD if it is to be looked after and sustainable for the farmer rent wants to be £30/a arable, grazing very very little if kept tidy.

Why would the land owner take £30 when they could take land back and just put it down to environmental scheme/ flowers.

 

[GeorgeK]

Why would the land owner take £30 when they could take land back and just put it down to environmental scheme/ flowers.

We can only wait and see how far the pot stretches and is distributed because there's no extra money over what's available now. I think the lion's share will go to big estates, the NT and RSPB for large scale rewilding, reforestation, wetland and peat restoration. Most of the remainder will go to the basic tiers of ELMS for things like buffer strips and there might not be as much left for putting entire fields down to flowers as some people think. Just a guess though, everyone's in the dark.

 

[Terry75]

Why would the land owner take £30 when they could take land back and just put it down to environmental scheme/ flowers.

One of my landlords is worried I will quit and then who he will get to farm his land. In this area its all big estates. The contractors dont have the knowledge to manage these schemes and the landlord has enough on his plate. The land agents I talk to all use mid tier as somthing to base the current rent on. Not helpful to the tenant.

 

[teslacoils]

Rents won't drop. Ahas have barely changed from when wheat was half today's price.

Fbts are a little higher than 10 years ago.

 

[Mr Tree]

Rents won't drop. Ahas have barely changed from when wheat was half today's price.

Fbts are a little higher than 10 years ago.

They will have to if nothing replaces bps.
I’m sure you know your figures but there’s nothing at the job at all if you factor reinvestment.
You can’t use the same machinery for ever.

 

[lloyd]

Why would the land owner take £30 when they could take land back and just put it down to environmental scheme/ flowers.

Planting wildflower mixes are not cheap.

 

[GeorgeK]

They will have to if nothing replaces bps.
I’m sure you know your figures but there’s nothing at the job at all if you factor reinvestment.
You can’t use the same machinery for ever.

Different areas. The vast, fertile Lincolnshire plains with AD plants on every corner are a world away from a clayey hillside that can grow good crops but not every year and demands more attention and timeliness.

 

[DRC]

Why would the land owner take £30 when they could take land back and just put it down to environmental scheme/ flowers.

Not on AHA they couldn’t . Rent reviews should reflect the earning capacity of the holding .

 

[Mr Tree]

I understand reading this that farmers think rents may drop?

But what is the plans immediately and short and long term?

personally I’m thinking stewardship in the immediate and follow the schemes as they /if appear long term

FBT land will be judged accordingly and given back I’m afraid and possibly a lot more reliant on diversified income.

 

[ajd132]

A machinery and labour joint venture, making ‘regen’ no till work (going ok so far), reduce reliance on bought in inputs, sell ISO assured carbon certificates, make use of ELMS when it comes out as we are already doing many of the things on the SFI pilot.
I think current high price may cause some to take their foot off the gas in relation to bps soon going.

 

[Courier]

We can only wait and see how far the pot stretches and is distributed because there's no extra money over what's available now…..
….Just a guess though, everyone's in the dark.

Very true, until there is some sort of serious commitment from Government all anyone can do is guess at how any of the vaguely proposed retirement or other schemes might work, certainly no where near enough detail available yet to spend time on a fictitious 5 or 10 year agricultural business plan….