Breeding ewe sales-outlook

[beltextexel]

Lamb price falling by the day, hard hard winter/spring and now not a blade of grass anywhere. I'd have thought they would be less money. Still a big entry at Thame this year. Ideally all the breeding sheep I have to sell will be a roaring trade and the ones I want to buy will be for nothing!

 

[dunk999]

I would imagine a lot of people will be tempted after years of hard stressful work in livestock to cut numbers and bang in more barley etc to feed the burners/biodigester demand at good money, they don’t need calved or lambed at 3am either.
Even with the few months of good lamb prices we had it wasn’t us breeders who got it and once again it looks grim at the moment. I can’t possibly see why breeding livestock prices could possibly be great.

 

[yellowbelly]

Is it just a case of simple arithmetic?

High spring hogg price = more ewe hoggs killed = short supply = higher price

Crap lambing weather + no summer rain = no grass = disillusioned farmers = less demand = lower price
Q.E.D.

Do both equations not just cancel each other out

Warning ...............I didn't progress any further than O level maths, so my theory might not hold water

 

[Northeastfarmer]

After last winter, The way grass is atm, lamb price falling the fodder shortage and increase in barley and protein prices surely breeding sheep will be less

 

[Greythundercloudys]

I'm going to wait till spring , you can pick up good fit ewes up here in fed/March, scanned twins for 100/ 110 most years, 6 weeks before lambing. If hoggs aren't a crazy price no one will want them

 

[CharcoalWally]

You'll never know. I went to 2 breeding sheep sales within a week of each other.

One had reasonable priced ewes and expensive gimmers. The other had expensive ewes and the gimmers were practically given away. Within a week of each other! !!

I bought ewes at the second sale and ended up kicking myself.

Therefore, stop worrying about the trade for sheep, because you'll never know what's going to happen.

 

[Woolless]

Is it just a case of simple arithmetic?

High spring hogg price = more ewe hoggs killed = short supply = higher price

Crap lambing weather + no summer rain = no grass = disillusioned farmers = less demand = lower price
Q.E.D.

Do both equations not just cancel each other out

Warning ...............I didn't progress any further than O level maths, so my theory might not hold water

That would be my guess, too.

 

[Jackov Altraids]

That would be my guess, too.

That was my thinking but then there are a lot giving up or reducing which increases supply and reduces demand so on balance price could be down.
A month ago, I was keen to increase flock numbers but since then, lamb has dropped £1/kg deadweight, I've been quoted rises for winter feeding, the grass has evaporated and we have no idea if we will have an export market on 1/4/19.
I'm beginning to wonder how cheap they would have to be to tempt me to buy any.

 

[Woolless]

That was my thinking but then there a lot giving up or reducing which increases supply and reduces demand so on balance price could be down.
A month ago, I was keen to increase flock numbers but since then, lamb has dropped £1/kg deadweight, I've been quoted rises for winter feeding, the grass has evaporated and we have no idea if we will have an export market on 1/4/19.
I'm beginning to wonder how cheap they would have to be to tempt me to buy any.

Confidence is not at the crest of a wave, that's certainly true...

 

[jendan]

That was my thinking but then there are a lot giving up or reducing which increases supply and reduces demand so on balance price could be down.
A month ago, I was keen to increase flock numbers but since then, lamb has dropped £1/kg deadweight, I've been quoted rises for winter feeding, the grass has evaporated and we have no idea if we will have an export market on 1/4/19.
I'm beginning to wonder how cheap they would have to be to tempt me to buy any.

According to Guthrie,we are in some sort of transition so it wont matter about the exact date of 1/4/19. Im not so sure of this myself though.The buyers would use any excuse to drive the price through the floor.Wait till the deadweight price is really low;£3.20/kg and things are at their blackest, thats the time to buy stores if you have the guts to do it.£20 for small ones,£40 for good uns.

 

[neilo]

That was my thinking but then there are a lot giving up or reducing which increases supply and reduces demand so on balance price could be down.
A month ago, I was keen to increase flock numbers but since then, lamb has dropped £1/kg deadweight, I've been quoted rises for winter feeding, the grass has evaporated and we have no idea if we will have an export market on 1/4/19.
I'm beginning to wonder how cheap they would have to be to tempt me to buy any.

You should take a leaf out of the dairy boys' book. When prices are down you should increase supply to keep your income the same. It worked well for them....

 

[Greythundercloudys]

Farmers are a bit like sheep, one does something , others will follow. No one will know till next month when the big sale get started and its rained.

 

[MattWG]

Wish there were some willing to give up round here and give someone else a chance

 

[had e nuff]

Had a lad in helping me today who does a lot of contract shearing. Farmers telling him they are going to reduce suckler cows and keep few more sheep.

 

[Jerry]

Ill update this thread with prices tomorrow, I wont be there for the whole sale at Exeter but want to see a few lots go under the hammer and have my eye on a few pens.

 

[Northeastfarmer]

Had a lad in helping me today who does a lot of contract shearing. Farmers telling him they are going to reduce suckler cows and keep few more sheep.

Suckler cows will be extinct before long

 

[Willie adie]

don't worry anm auctioneers predicting prices up at back end of year two weeks ago.
store prices down 30 odd pence last week

 

[It was already broken.]

Suckler cows will be extinct before long

And that is the biggest threat to the livestock market as a whole.

 

[firther]

Had a lad in helping me today who does a lot of contract shearing. Farmers telling him they are going to reduce suckler cows and keep few more sheep.

they might change there mind with lamb price as it stands

 

[neilo]

they might change there mind with lamb price as it stands

That will depend if they’ve sat down and worked out the relative costs of keeping suckler cows and ewes.