Combinables Price Tracker

[4course]

Cynical thought.

They know market is getting tight, so filling contracts with free market while available and holding committed stocks for as long as possible?

its not cynical its the use of knowledge to further ones business it would only be cynical if they were suggesting to the seller that the price will not rise due to market/currency factors, oh ok its cynical

 

[Brisel]

Cynical thought.

They know market is getting tight, so filling contracts with free market while available and holding committed stocks for as long as possible?

That assumes they are predicting a price rise. Why fill new contracts with spot grain unless they have already made their margin? Running long or short is speculating - IME merchants do that with paper grain not physical though each one will have their own strategy and will be monitoring their open positions closely to check they aren't too exposed to fluctuations. I reckon that they are keeping older farm deals for the sales they made against them and doing spot buying for new deals that cover consumer shorts.

Perhaps @crazy_bull or @Condi can comment on where they would take a punt?

 

[Qman]

I have around 300ish ton in the shed and I'm getting 3 or 4 calls a week at the moment about it. Things must be getting tight if there chasing small amounts like this. Normally have to chase them to move it. Been offered £150 for may but said all along I'd wait for article 50 to be triggered so it can wait another week or two at least.

300 tonnes at £150 makes £45000. If you consider this to be a small amount will you send me a few quid please?

 

[Condi]

That assumes they are predicting a price rise. Why fill new contracts with spot grain unless they have already made their margin? Running long or short is speculating - IME merchants do that with paper grain not physical though each one will have their own strategy and will be monitoring their open positions closely to check they aren't too exposed to fluctuations. I reckon that they are keeping older farm deals for the sales they made against them and doing spot buying for new deals that cover consumer shorts.

Perhaps @crazy_bull or @Condi can comment on where they would take a punt?

Ummm, all merchants will do different things and run a complex combination of long and short positions on both futures and physical depending on what makes sense at the time and how they feel the market is going.

The only thing I would say is that pool grain, or grain with flexible movement periods, is by definition more flexible! So merchants will use that when there is a shortage of other grain.

 

[fermec860]

Just sat down and worked out what our average sales will be for wheat , as long as the tonnages are in the store that I expect then we should average out a fraction over 130 / ton ,,,,,, considering the tonnage that went down the road to cover the early sales I am very happy ,,,,, yes I know there are a lot of you clever sods who will of done better but so be it

What did u average last year we were 105 selling Dec to may wil be lot higher this year do the same each year it equals out over time

 

[Mr Charisma]

What did u average last year we were 105 selling Dec to may wil be lot higher this year do the same each year it equals out over time

Will look tomorrow but £ 114 for the pool wheat I think but may be wrong , can't remember my own sales , will have a look

 

[4course]

Ummm, all merchants will do different things and run a complex combination of long and short positions on both futures and physical depending on what makes sense at the time and how they feel the market is going.

The only thing I would say is that pool grain, or grain with flexible movement periods, is by definition more flexible! So merchants will use that when there is a shortage of other grain.

and then the unscupulous could take the mick if the market goes against them by claiming a reduction in spec

 

[Manny]

300 tonnes at £150 makes £45000. If you consider this to be a small amount will you send me a few quid please?

By small amount I mean the tonnage not the value. Compared to several local farms that would be moving this amount each month or two. It will be very nice when the cheque lands in the bank.

 

[copse]

what sort of money are feed oats and barley at the moment?

 

[SilliamWhale]

what sort of money are feed oats and barley at the moment?

Sold some.barley for £128. Expect oats maybe £115-120?

 

[Surgery]

Feed barley price last week Oxford area anyone , sold a load into a mate and need a price if possible , thanks.

 

[marshbarn]

what sort of money are feed oats and barley at the moment?

Milling oats to crewe £150
feed oats £135
Feed barley £127

 

[Mr Charisma]

Feed barley price last week Oxford area anyone , sold a load into a mate and need a price if possible , thanks.

We have just bought a trailer full for £125 / ton

 

[Condi]

and then the unscupulous could take the mick if the market goes against them by claiming a reduction in spec

Not really sure what you mean, the managers will make the best sale for your grain depending on spec, location and premium.

 

[wellingtonfarmer]

Still got all my osr to sell? Stick twist? Could brexit have a negative affect on prices? Or is it worth waiting aafter Thursdays to see what happens with £?

 

[chaffcutter]

Think you might have missed the top with your OSR it's dropped back a tenner or so in the last couple of weeks

 

[wellingtonfarmer]

Think you might have missed the top with your OSR it's dropped back a tenner or so in the last couple of weeks

Possibly, doesn't seem much around all season though...

 

[crazy_bull]

Possibly, doesn't seem much around all season though...

It was/is tight, but the one possibly two Aussie vessels have taken the pressure off for now will still be needed though, but is approx £20 off it's highs, still £90-100 off it's lows.

C B

 

[Condi]

I suspect there is more to come out than needs to be bought, and a record us bean area this year will mean world oilseeds prices are under pressure no matter what the situation here.

 

[yellow belly]

I suspect there is more to come out than needs to be bought, and a record us bean area this year will mean world oilseeds prices are under pressure no matter what the situation here.

but record Chinese demand according to hgca 89 million tonnes a lot of ships and port unloading needed