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Discussion in 'Cropping' started by Jerry, Feb 14, 2013.
When the clever guys tell us all the £ will crash it usually goes other way.
grain marketing mistake #101
1) selling for cash flow
Grain is currency, if you need cash leverage the grain you have via bank or merchant warrant and sell (price) when you think time is right
I can tell you from the history of our farm business, the best decisions were made when there was pressure to make them, from cash flow/interest/capital payments/purchase of assets, its partly a symptom of easy money/low interest rates/long period of settled economy that you can be so relaxed about holding 100% of your harvest
I have never yet been on the right side by selling forward.I must be a useless grain trader.or my crystal ball must need a polish
Is grain really currency? I bet 1 tonne of wheat bought you a lot more things in 1970 than it does today!
so its a currency that has devalued since 1970 - we helped that process by printing (growing) more of it
its still a currency, same as gold
At least with real currency there is no cost of carry and you can actually lend it out to earn interest. You cannot do that with grain. Let's us rapeseed as an example.
Ex farm £320 per tonne plus 10% bonuses = approximately £350 per tonne
Interest at 3% means it costs £10.50 per tonne per year, or just shy of £1 per month in interest before storage costs and quality deteriotion risk.
It’s actually a far more stable currency in many ways. Look at Zimbabwe for their currency valuation, would you rather hold zim dollars or wheat?
I think a no deal is semi priced in , hence the weak pound presently, if we get some sort of deal, which is quite likely, the pound will strengthen
If I could get £170.00 for some more harvest 19 wheat I think I would sell a bit more, am at a tonne now, which is normally my max till well into the harvest year, but I am not that confident it will be a lot more when we get there. Everything but agrochems is fixed so as long as yields aren't a total disaster there should be profit at that.
You are right, Donald has the potential to over rev anything!
More good news from the HGCA, this week.
2018 wheat yields up 1% here in the South West.
Should limit local price rises, after Christmas.
As a matter of record (see above) my yields here in the South West were down 29%, exactly the same as they were down in Northern Ireland
And for exactly the same reason.
I would say ours were well up but still have some to shift before I know final t/acre sold out, but would add ours are never barn busting regardless of the year due to pants soils.
That's not good news for prices, MrNoo.
But, to be fair, the HGCA's probably about right, overall.
This is because the bigger acreages lie in the east of the South West region where welcome overnight rain tracked up a few times in June.
And, if I remember correctly, you reported having a bit.
But here, we had only 10% of what we had in 1976.
Yes we had two nights of particularly heavy rain a couple of days apart, 29mm and I think 32mm, so very lucky. Only our WW was any good, SB and OSR were both nothing to shout about especially the OSR.
We were very lucky, too.
Don't do any SB, gave up on OSR for 2018, and by rights all the WW,WO and WB should have been down by about 45% rather than by only 29.
My bit of the SW was no where near 1% up, it was nearer 15% down for WOSR and 15 to 20% down wheat, id like to exclude the SB, that was 60% down.
Looks about right as an average for our area. Yields very variable this year, with areas that hold moisture (hollows, wet areas, near trees) could easily hit 13-15t/ha. Lighter land was often sub 4t/ha. Often the extremes in the same field.
Been trying all day, without success so far, to find the HGCA's equivalent SB production graphic, intending to post it here
Maybe, in their wisdom, Jerry, they've decided to exclude SB this year, too.
I’m convinced 2018 production figures are way optimistic still even after recent correction last week