Combinables Price Tracker

[4course]

Depends on where you see a good profit.

take your point ,but im of the mind set to ensure ive got the grain more or less in the bag cos ive seen businesses lost /severely harmed through selling what they aint got

 

[benny6910]

every little helps , ho ho iv e a bit sold /committed on the jan pool ,other than that very tempted but its too early for me , in what looks to be a difficult year regarding estimating final crop yield, not just here uk but all over the grain producing exporting countries

I’m tempted to sell some more but with the dry weather and not much change in the Forcast for the next week I’m unsure what I’ll have in the shed come September. 3 ton a acre might be unachievable this year when I normally constantly average over 4.

 

[Days of thunder]

I’m tempted to sell some more but with the dry weather and not much change in the Forcast for the next week I’m unsure what I’ll have in the shed come September. 3 ton a acre might be unachievable this year when I normally constantly average over 4.

3 tonne @190 or 4 tonne 150 which do you prefer?

 

[Jam Tomorrow]

I think most of us would go for the most valuable one thanks

 

[4course]

for whatever reason a lot more folks seem to be in the grip of the market analysts and so called strategy gurus and how often we hear the refrain im selling when I can see a profit,What profit would be my question ,based on what parameters .Three bits of advice I was given years ago never sell what you havnt got , always ask yourself why does the other guy want to buy what youve got and never risk what you cant afford to lose.

 

[lloyd]

Was offered £177 today for spot feed barley ex.
Declined but not far off my target price.
Feed Wheat £215 May .

 

[benny6910]

3 tonne @190 or 4 tonne 150 which do you prefer?

I don’t want to over sell is more what I was getting at. At what point will the dry weather seriously damage yield potential?

 

[lloyd]

I was offered £215 a few weeks ago. I'd bite their hand off for that now.

I hope you've got sharp teeth.

 

[Donkey Oaty]

I hope you've got sharp teeth.

Too bad I bailed out and sold the wheat for less! I still have some barley to sell and its responding well to this rise.

 

[MrNoo]

Depends on where you see a good profit.

Lol, talk on the grapevine that a very large "farming Co' checked out a very large % of their wheat @ £165/t, bet they're kicking themselves now. Shareholders who'd have them!!

 

[Bossfarmer]

I spoke to the buyer from one of the big mills today, bought a bit of soya from him.

He thinks that these prices have been driven by the Americans who been printing money and investing it in commodities, and that at some point over the summer they will sell off to take the profit, crashing the price.

Any merit in the theory?

id heard there was a 22% increase in investors this year over last year betting the price would go up so could be some truth in this?

 

[Brisel]

for whatever reason a lot more folks seem to be in the grip of the market analysts and so called strategy gurus and how often we hear the refrain im selling when I can see a profit,What profit would be my question ,based on what parameters .Three bits of advice I was given years ago never sell what you havnt got , always ask yourself why does the other guy want to buy what youve got and never risk what you cant afford to lose.

So, you're a farmer, taking a long position by growing produce unpriced. Is that not the very definition of risk taking?

There's no right or wrong answer to this, just your own ways of managing risk that you feel comfortable with.

 

[Clive]

So, you're a farmer, taking a long position by growing produce unpriced. Is that not the very definition of risk taking?

There's no right or wrong answer to this, just your own ways of managing risk that you feel comfortable with.

forward seller or spot seller - it makes no difference to the massive risk that a farmer exposes themselves to every season

there are few higher risk industries imo

risk on markets is insignificant vs weather risk

 

[Sonoftheheir]

Cofco man email speaks of impeding doom......

 

[lloyd]

forward seller or spot seller - it makes no difference to the massive risk that a farmer exposes themselves to every season

there are few higher risk industries imo

Forward selling takes the risk out of the end user to bid up market prices as they know they are covered for several months.This has happened this season with feed wheat and barley.The big end users had no incentive for bigger rises up to May
as they had coverage from the giant grain traders.
Now they are actively bidding against one another as supply
becomes tight to new season.

OSR is another example where lots of people send their rape
off to be crushed but can price it at a later date .
But is that later price affected by the fact that the crush are not
desperate for the rape in the short to medium term as growers
have guaranteed their supply?

 

[Clive]

Forward selling takes the risk out of the end user to bid up market prices as they know they are covered for several months.This has happened this season with feed wheat and barley.The big end users had no incentive for bigger rises up to May
as they had coverage from the giant grain traders.
Now they are actively bidding against one another as supply
becomes tight to new season.

OSR is another example where lots of people send their rape
off to be crushed but can price it at a later date .
But is that later price affected by the fact that the crush are not
desperate for the rape in the short to medium term as growers
have guaranteed their supply?

for a farmer there is no greater risk than selling something you dont yet have and possibly may never have

only people forward selling reduces risk for is buyers as you suggest ! why do we fall for this ?

if you want to reduce risks forward an opinion is a MUCH safer tool to use

 

[lloyd]

for a farmer there is no greater risk than selling something you dont yet have and possibly may never have

only people forward selling reduces risk for is buyers as you suggest ! why do we fall for this ?

if you want to reduce risks forward an opinion is a MUCH safer tool to use

What sort of money are options at the moment Clive?

 

[teslacoils]

Quoted £17/t for option to buy Nov wheat.

 

[teslacoils]

Typically, I considered that too dear.......£17 a ton ago.

 

[Brisel]

for a farmer there is no greater risk than selling something you dont yet have and possibly may never have

only people forward selling reduces risk for is buyers as you suggest ! why do we fall for this ?

if you want to reduce risks forward an opinion is a MUCH safer tool to use

We all have opinions! Did you mean an OPTION?

Producing goods without pricing some is speculating that the market will pay you an acceptable price when you come to that market. We are all optimists in that respect.

Try making widgets in a factory without a final market or idea of price - you will be out of business very quickly indeed. Someone will buy farmer's produce, at a price.