Combinables Price Tracker

[Chae1]

Rather than trying to gamble on a date why not go out and buy some wheat futures if your all so confident it will rise so much?

Easy money.

 

[crazy_bull]

Can get £200 now for April 19 on feed wheat.

Ensus at £190 delivered August.

Not £200 x yet though,

Getting there though.

C B

 

[4course]

Rather than trying to gamble on a date why not go out and buy some wheat futures if your all so confident it will rise so much?

Easy money.

would appear that most of the 15 have already gambled by not selling any forward

 

[Clive]

Rather than trying to gamble on a date why not go out and buy some wheat futures if your all so confident it will rise so much?

Easy money.

Now there is an idea

 

[4course]

Now there is an idea

bit late now

 

[Farmerdunk]

Offered £195 for full spec group 1 for October

 

[Warp Land Farmer]

Not £200 x yet though,

Getting there though.

C B

Correct, £200 ex. for me is available in May 19, same home.

 

[hindmaist]

What are people being bid for spring malting barley on the spot market just now?

 

[Bossfarmer]

would be more exciting if the crops were heavier, i got 12mm of rain on monday the spring barley is still half greenish will it make any difference to it now?

 

[shakerator]

i thought we may have heard from shakerator as he is the one who was predicting 200/t for this year before last xmas, Still time, but so far ive around 15 folks who have committed to a date for may 19 futures to reach 200 . one or two have not made it clear wether they mean spot price or the may futures but for the purposes of the £200 gin challenge will use their chosen date as being for may and not spot . there has been a further rise today and 13 out of the 15 say it will happen before september, time will tell but its only£8 away now, any one else care to make a prediction before 12pm tommorrow

Expect it within a few days now cbot is giving credence to eu production problems .

 

[4course]

would be more exciting if the crops were heavier, i got 12mm of rain on monday the spring barley is still half greenish will it make any difference to it now?

judging by what the rain we got a week last monday has done to ww and grass ,yes

 

[Bossfarmer]

judging by what the rain we got a week last monday has done to ww and grass ,yes

some of my barleys only got 20 peas per head cant see it solving that, mabye grow a bit taller though/more straw?

 

[4course]

Expect it within a few days now cbot is giving credence to eu production problems .

go on then, give us a date as to when may 19 futures will hit 200 ,in these times a few days is a lifetime and in my lifetime ive only sold above 200 once and that seems a long time ago

 

[Farmer-George]

May 20 futures getting real close to 200! Could be there before August at this rate!

 

[shakerator]

go on then, give us a date as to when may 19 futures will hit 200 ,in these times a few days is a lifetime and in my lifetime ive only sold above 200 once and that seems a long time ago

200 is a very arbitrary figure. I’m not really interested in technicals . Fundamentally the markets are extremely susceptible to modest supply shocks . That was my point 3 years ago, it takes b*gger all to double a market higher only a sniff of fear. An actual crystallised problem will likely see grains revalued to 1980’s levels ie £120-£140 in today’s money which would be at least double or treble.

 

[shakerator]

200 is a very arbitrary figure. I’m not really interested in technicals . Fundamentally the markets are extremely susceptible to modest supply shocks . That was my point 3 years ago, it takes b*gger all to double a market higher only a sniff of fear. An actual crystallised problem will likely see grains revalued to 1980’s levels ie £120-£140 in today’s money which would be at least double or treble.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator


£120/t in 1980 is £489/t today inflation adjusted

 

[4course]

May 20 futures getting real close to 200! Could be there before August at this rate!

seems possible slightly ubelieveable ,as when i did our cash flow output predictions last nov/dec was looking at 140 at best and 130 as the budget figure albeit with higher yield though with the hope/ view there was more upside than down , oh and straw at £40/acre

 

[Hindsight]

200 is a very arbitrary figure. I’m not really interested in technicals . Fundamentally the markets are extremely susceptible to modest supply shocks . That was my point 3 years ago, it takes b*gger all to double a market higher only a sniff of fear. An actual crystallised problem will likely see grains revalued to 1980’s levels ie £120-£140 in today’s money which would be at least double or treble.

Ah the joys if inelasticity of demand versus supply and the slope of the curves dependent on the perceived impact of scarcity on the end user. Markets react to shortage (or perceived shortage) rapidly but wane to surplus more slowly. Think that is how it went. Joys. Economics lectures 1979.

 

[Steevo]

Ah the joys if inelasticity of demand versus supply and the slope of the curves dependent on the perceived impact of scarcity on the end user. Markets react to shortage (or perceived shortage) rapidly but wane to surplus more slowly. Think that is how it went. Joys. Economics lectures 1979.

Speaking of which....a shortage of flour and price rises were on the news yesterday! Looks like bread up another 50p a loaf!!

 

[4course]

200 is a very arbitrary figure. I’m not really interested in technicals . Fundamentally the markets are extremely susceptible to modest supply shocks . That was my point 3 years ago, it takes b*gger all to double a market higher only a sniff of fear. An actual crystallised problem will likely see grains revalued to 1980’s levels ie £120-£140 in today’s money which would be at least double or treble.

ah well twas your good self who posted that grain would be over 200, and in a small way your insistence that it was going to happen helped me consider wether to sell or hold back in dec . As im still holding grain at the moment that it is possible to sell at almost 60 /ton over what I could have done I can only thank you for your contribution