Combinables Price Tracker

[Bruce Almighty]

Was offered £320 for Sept feed wheat today, on Friday it was £316

Still not sold any.

3 weeks ago it looked like a 2 ton/ac harvest, recent rains have pushed it to 3 ton, but no way will it be 4 ton like last year.

 

[Suffolk Serf]

Chicken and pork have been far too cheap for too long. In
reality it's only a price readjustment that was long overdue.

I totally agree. But it is very painful waiting for the price to adjust.

 

[MrNoo]

£400 wouldn't be outrageous

Agree, reckon milling will hit £450 over the marketing year. I said this months ago!!!

 

[teslacoils]

Unsure. The Ukraine situation has become embedded now. If youre like me and usually have several news feeds on your screen at once, I can tell you the number watching the BBC reports has dropped from close to 200k down to sub 20k. Its a bit "yeah, yeah" now. Focus is more on conditions around the world. Until Donbas joins Russia proper and Zelensky agrees to actually nogiciate.

 

[Baling Hay]

what with?

corn

 

[Clive]

Not cheap but has potential to make food much cheaper if biofuel mandates reduced. Hence why germany proposed reducing mandates from 4.4% to 2.4% last week and OSR fell 60 euros on the news.........

This thread has strong recurring theme of confirmation bias going on, wheat is undoubtedly bullish with what is going on...but how much of this has been priced in by the market by wheat going up £150 in a few months?

we have lost at least 20% of global supply as no way imo that wheat will ship from anywhere that uses any black sea ports for sometime - would you underwrite a boat to navigate through mined water? there is no other realistic way to ship volume from that area

on top of this weather in several key producing countries and many farmers reducing fertiliser input due to cost

yet new crop is still below old crop price ? !

logic more than confirmation bias imo

 

[Clive]

It'll have to move up quick or else there will be a shortage.
We are now not buying animals in. Nothing is random, if we aren't you can be sure others aren't either

there will be at shortage first

2022 winter of discontent coming up

 

[teslacoils]

2022 winter of discontent coming up

For many.

 

[Baling Hay]

we have lost at least 20% of global supply as no way imo that wheat will ship from anywhere that uses any black sea ports for sometime - would you underwrite a boat to navigate through mined water? there is no other realistic way to ship volume from that area

on top of this weather in several key producing countries and many farmers reducing fertiliser input due to cost

yet new crop is still below old crop price ? !

logic more than confirmation bias imo

Pretty sure Ukraine is not 20% of global wheat supply, but ok...........

 

[Boydvalley]

Pretty sure Ukraine is not 20% of global wheat supply, but ok...........

Ukrain and Russia

 

[Baling Hay]

Ukrain and Russia

The world has not lost Russia's wheat, they are still exporting. In fact crop analysts have increased the Russian crop size in recent days.

 

[David.]

Well it must have increased by the half million tons or whatever, that they have apparently had it away with from Ukraine...

 

[Baling Hay]

Well it must have increased by the half million tons or whatever, that they have apparently had it away with from Ukraine...

yep dirty barstewards

 

[lloyd]

The world has not lost Russia's wheat, they are still exporting. In fact crop analysts have increased the Russian crop size in recent days.

Satellite images showing damaged wheat fields in China .
Reports so far saying they are expecting a below average harvest.

 

[David.]

That probably means they are actually expecting a bumper, and are trying to keep price up..

 

[Clive]

Pretty sure Ukraine is not 20% of global wheat supply, but ok...........

Ukraine plus Russia is

thats before we consider other exporters that use bslck sea ports or the effects of reducing N and some pretty extreme weather on remaining production areas

 

[Clive]

The world has not lost Russia's wheat, they are still exporting. In fact crop analysts have increased the Russian crop size in recent days.

Not to the EU ! Sanctions ?

 

[Daniel]

I totally agree. But it is very painful waiting for the price to adjust.

And it needs to go up beyond break even into an actual profit, the retailers will fight tooth and nail to try and stop that happening. Reports today that they’re trying to import eggs from Poland to fill the impending shortfall.

Farmers fear that supermarkets are turning to eggs from Poland

Retailers accused of seeking out cheaper foreign produce

www.telegraph.co.uk

Not sure how many surplus eggs Poland will have given they have the same feed price pressures we do and have a lot of refugees to feed, but that won’t stop UK supermarkets trying.

 

[teslacoils]

Not to the EU ! Sanctions ?

Lol. They only sanction things they don't need. Most of the world still merrily trading with Russia.

I'd be watching USA crop ratings next. Then France & India.

 

[redsloe]

And it needs to go up beyond break even into an actual profit, the retailers will fight tooth and nail to try and stop that happening. Reports today that they’re trying to import eggs from Poland to fill the impending shortfall.

Farmers fear that supermarkets are turning to eggs from Poland

Retailers accused of seeking out cheaper foreign produce

www.telegraph.co.uk

Not sure how many surplus eggs Poland will have given they have the same feed price pressures we do and have a lot of refugees to feed, but that won’t stop UK supermarkets trying.

They are fecking barstewards, probably looking at record profits too just like BP and shell.

If they work on a profit margin, the higher the price, the higher the profit.