Currency weighs on grain and oilseeds markets

CRM AgriCommodities

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
UK
**LAST PLACES ON GRAIN MARKETING COURSE - 27.09.16 - The Farmers Club**

Cereals

  • US$ weakness capping the European and UK markets but supported the US markets to a certain point and then traders focused on the upcoming corn harvest. The UK grain market is a rather dull affair at present with purchases minimal due to lack of producer selling and drifting lower.
  • Russian grain crop raised 2MlnT to 118MlnT by domestic analyst, wheat +2MlnT to 72MlnT.
  • The Egyptian military man, Major Mohamed Ali El-Sheikh, is appointed supply minister for world’s top wheat importer.
  • Brazilian government (CONAB) lowers wheat production to 6.16MlnT from 6.2 prev. and total corn 66.98MlnT from 68.48 prev.


Oilseeds

  • The UK rapeseed market is still searching for sellers and the physical market remains fairly well bid despite the currency capping the upside. EU OSR prices retraced lower after touching the 380€/T resistance level again on Nov-16 futures as the sharp move higher on the EURUSD cross weighed on prices. The Palm oil and US oilseed complex added some support to prices.
  • Brazilian government (CONAB) raises soybean production to 95.43MlNT from 95.42 prev.
  • The difference between Nov-16 Rapeseed and Soybean futures in €/T should equate to more US soybeans exported into Netherlands and Germany (see chart of the day).
Macros

  • The pound gained more ground against the Euro and both rallied versus the US$ as US non-manufacturing PMI, Labour market conditions and Economic Conditions Index were all below expectations making a US rate hike unlikely within the next month.
  • Crude oil trade lower as it continued to trade the oversupply conditions but the US$ weakness put a floor in today’s price move.
Chart of the Day

Futures & Options Prices
 

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