Fertiliser Price Tracker

daveydiesel1

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Co antrim
I only buy fertiliser for my silage fields, maybe just as cheap buying a load or two of good hay.
Problem is gonna be that buyin silage/hay is gonna get more expensive as most of whats bein sold is surplus and if fert is this price combined with rising balein costs people will only produce what they need which will drive up the cost of stuf for sale. The only way outa current inflation is if farmers reduce intense production to cut costs a bit and hopefully the end product will increase in value. If fert is expensive worldwide it might also reduce the cheap imports as theyl be in the same boat so wont produce it as cheaply
 

Humble Village Farmer

Member
BASE UK Member
Location
Essex
Been talking to a chap in the trade this morning who seems to know what's going on.

He thinks it'll crash. Just doesn't know when

Putin will opt for the cash over holding Europe to ransom, he's got the new pipeline to pay for.

Respectable but not excessive crops in the Southern hemisphere will keep a lid on the wheat price.

The charts are the same as in 2008
 

Wheatyflake

Member
BASIS
Location
East Midlands
Been talking to a chap in the trade this morning who seems to know what's going on.

He thinks it'll crash. Just doesn't know when

Putin will opt for the cash over holding Europe to ransom, he's got the new pipeline to pay for.

Respectable but not excessive crops in the Southern hemisphere will keep a lid on the wheat price.

The charts are the same as in 2008
The situation in 2008 was not the same; oil was heading to $200/barrel, Brazil couldn't get letters of credit to buy the fertilizer, the chinese export window resulted in more product flooding into the market; there was more production capacity. It's likely things will go down in price, "what goes up must come down", but, what is your contact basing his opinion on?
 

Humble Village Farmer

Member
BASE UK Member
Location
Essex
The situation in 2008 was not the same; oil was heading to $200/barrel, Brazil couldn't get letters of credit to buy the fertilizer, the chinese export window resulted in more product flooding into the market; there was more production capacity. It's likely things will go down in price, "what goes up must come down", but, what is your contact basing his opinion on?
I don't think the chart being the same means everything else is.

I think he expects buyer reluctance to win over.
 

Wheatyflake

Member
BASIS
Location
East Midlands
I don't think the chart being the same means everything else is.

I think he expects buyer reluctance to win over.
Perhaps in a year where there's lots of stock sitting waiting to be bought but there isn't. Europe is suffering from increasingly crippling gas prices; I expect producers will be reluctant to produce rather than buyers being reluctant to buy. But, we are all second guessing really I suppose. Nothing would surprise me at the moment.
 

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