Invasion bets

[smallholder99]

 

[smallholder99]

View attachment 1012470

is this fair comment in the sun newspaper

 

[manhill]

He doesnt need to, he just says see I was never planning to invade it was just the army practicing and now they are off somewhere new to do it, then says to his people look how scared the west is of the Russian bear, we move a few tanks about and they are terrified.

just read this. Almost word for word what I was thinking in my post. Gives a chance to face save.

 

[ollie989898]

View attachment 1012470

The pattern of countries, what is driving it or behind it? Is it to stop oil and gas pipelines or what?

 

[Danllan]

The pattern of countries, what is driving it or behind it? Is it to stop oil and gas pipelines or what?

Good question; that will be part of it, but it's really just what is possible for him. I don't think China will let him dominate Kazakhstan.

 

[Mr Jones]

Cyber attacks allegedly underway at Russian railway systems. Now, who could be playing games I wonder

 

[Danllan]

Cyber attacks allegedly underway at Russian railway systems. Now, who could be playing games I wonder

No doubting that if things do kick off there will be direct Western cyber attacks on Russia; but as for now, who can say? It is entirely possible that: it is a Western intelligence agency giving Russia a warning; it is China / North Korea / Iran or another trying to stir things up for their own reasons; it is Russia's own bods who'll attribute it to the Ukraine and are trying to give Vlad a bit of a casus belli.

I wouldn't bet against any of these and wouldn't want to choose which - could be all... or none.

 

[nivilla1982]

Presumably is rather fortunate that the French pulled out of the deal to sell the Russians those Mistral class ships?

 

[Muck Spreader]

Putin's game it to always claim he is protecting ethnic Russian civilians. That was the story in Crimea and Chechnya, even more recently in Kazakhstan and what he will be looking at doing in the Donbas region. But, I would doubt he would risk going further into Ukraine atm. However, I would be uneasy if I lived in the Latvia or Estonia.

 

[Lowland1]

Putin's game it to always claim he is protecting ethnic Russian civilians. That was the story in Crimea and Chechnya, even more recently in Kazakhstan and what he will be looking at doing in the Donbas region. But, I would doubt he would risk going further into Ukraine atm. However, I would be uneasy if I lived in the Latvia or Estonia.

Bit like the Sudetenland or East Prussia or what if Pakistan decides to invade Bradford to uphold the rites of its people.
On the other hand I see Biden is threatening Putin with personal sanctions that should bring this all to and end. I’m not sure what personal sanctions are possibly he is confined to his room or possibly No pudding after dinner.

 

[teslacoils]

No doubting that if things do kick off there will be direct Western cyber attacks on Russia; but as for now, who can say? It is entirely possible that: it is a Western intelligence agency giving Russia a warning; it is China / North Korea / Iran or another trying to stir things up for their own reasons; it is Russia's own bods who'll attribute it to the Ukraine and are trying to give Vlad a bit of a casus belli.

I wouldn't bet against any of these and wouldn't want to choose which - could be all... or none.

You know that Russia has demonstrated and tested it's ability to disconnect the whole of Russia from the internet? Likewise, I'll wager that most critical russian infrastructure can still be operated with levers and valves. The UK government does not have the same degree of failsafes and backups.

This is a conflict that western Europe won't get involved with apart from some hardware flexing.

There was an agreement signed post 2104 that wasn't implemented. In the same way that Russia provides all the gas it's contracted to do, you'll find Vlad will be happy to see Minsk II fully implemented and Nord Stream 2 turned on.

Ukraine earns c.$2bn a year in russian gas transit fees. It would be cheaper for the west to offer a cash bung to Kiev and to allow self determination for Donbass .

Even in the time of the Kievan Rus, and the grand duchy of Lithuania, these disputed regions never formed part of Ukraine and it is inevitable that they shall return to Russia. And not a single British, french or especially German soldier, airman or navy ship will fire at a russian.

 

[Danllan]

You know that Russia has demonstrated and tested it's ability to disconnect the whole of Russia from the internet? Likewise, I'll wager that most critical russian infrastructure can still be operated with levers and valves. The UK government does not have the same degree of failsafes and backups.

This is a conflict that western Europe won't get involved with apart from some hardware flexing.

There was an agreement signed post 2104 that wasn't implemented. In the same way that Russia provides all the gas it's contracted to do, you'll find Vlad will be happy to see Minsk II fully implemented and Nord Stream 2 turned on.

Ukraine earns c.$2bn a year in russian gas transit fees. It would be cheaper for the west to offer a cash bung to Kiev and to allow self determination for Donbass .

Even in the time of the Kievan Rus, and the grand duchy of Lithuania, these disputed regions never formed part of Ukraine and it is inevitable that they shall return to Russia. And not a single British, french or especially German soldier, airman or navy ship will fire at a russian.

Let's go through this bit by bit...

First of all, it really is not a difficult thing to envisage a cyber attack on the Russian net coming from within Russia. Whether by 'sleeper', sat' 'phone or whatever means, there probably isn't any country in the world which can insulate it's intranet from exterior interference.

 

[ollie989898]

Disconnect the entirety of Russia from the internet? Best of luck with that, such a move would be costing them hundreds of thousands if not millions of lost revenue every minute it was in force. A lot of their banking and other business sectors will be heavily reliant on internet communications.

 

[JP1]

There are people here several of them who are obviously listening to far too much RT Russia Today ( yes not the other hated organ) and believe that Vlad is a cuddly little Chao who just needs a little respect
Here is a very good reason for being very concerned about his actions written by William Hague in today's Times

they also on another page have grave concerns about Russias "Live Firing exercise off the South coast of Ireland , which incidentally is right over the main pathway of so many of the internet cables linking UK , Europe and the rest of the world. It has been suspected for some time that Russian submarines have been surveying these routes


https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?te...-vladimir-putin-the-judo-black-belt-xddfzdcql
https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sha...-vladimir-putin-the-judo-black-belt-xddfzdcql



Imust be one of the few people in the West who has discussed with Vladimir Putin the best techniques for flooring your opponent. This is because I took him to see the judo at the London Olympics in 2012: the one occasion that I met him when we got on well and had a lot in common. He is a highly proficient “judoka” and has a lifelong passion for the sport. I am less accomplished but developed an enthusiasm for judo in my thirties.
Seated in the Excel Centre as a Russian fought for a gold medal, we exclaimed excitedly whenever there was “ippon” (a clean throw) and deplored any “hiki-wake” (a draw). I remember the bafflement of the expert Russian-English translator who had been assigned to the meeting between the British foreign secretary and the president of Russia, only to find our conversation littered with Japanese. Then there was champagne all round when the Russian won, with huge relief on the face of Russian officials who were in no doubt they needed to produce a victory.
I recount this partly to illustrate an important fact in recent history: the West, including the UK, made a serious effort to improve relations with Moscow a decade ago. Obama, Cameron and Merkel were all keen on it. The head of the German navy resigned at the weekend because he claimed that all Putin wants is respect, but we spent years going to great lengths to give him respect. We countenanced moving on from measures rightly imposed after Alexander Litvinenko was murdered on British soil. We instituted regular talks between defence ministers — I chaired them with Sergei Lavrov. The West posed no military threat to Russia. There was plenty of respect.
Yet in spite of that, by 2014 Putin was invading eastern Ukraine and seizing Crimea. He feels threatened, not by western forces, but by the emergence of free peoples and independent countries on Russia’s borders. These are only threats because he has chosen to build a kleptocratic, authoritarian pyramid of financial and political power that he cannot afford to be contrasted with the spreading of freedom or prosperity in the same neighbourhood. He is the cause of his own insecurity. The respect he really wants is that we disown our own values and friends, and that is something we cannot provide.
The happy couple of hours we spent watching judo was part of the significant effort to improve relations, but it also gave me some impression of how he thinks. The tactics of judo are ingrained in him. Not surprisingly, he has an acute sense of when an opponent is off-balance. This is quite different from thinking they are weak. They are off-balance when you can see distraction in their eyes, perceive they are not ready for an attack, and feel they have more weight on one foot than the other. That is the moment to strike.

​

Putin has sensed all of this in the West in recent months. A chaotic retreat from Kabul, a US administration struggling with multiple domestic issues, a focus on China as if other potential threats have diminished, and a change of government in Germany all add up to a western world that is not steady on its feet. He knows this is the best moment in a long time to gain an advantage.
The Russian economy is smaller than Britain’s. Compared with the US it is tiny. But focus, discipline, technique and practice can often give victory to the smaller player in judo when the bigger one has lost their balance. Strong armed forces, locally concentrated and under strict central command, are Putin’s strategic equivalent of that.
His preference, of course, is for a deal that gives him much of what he would fight for. But if it comes to fighting, the “judoka” has a choice, and Putin relished discussing that. There is the dramatic move that brings the opponent crashing down. But the other option is to dominate them in stages, to gain a superior hold that constrains their options, and he loves that one. Soon, they can’t stand straight, are struggling to breathe properly and their hope is evaporating. They only lose on points, but the winner is clear.
Now he has a parallel military choice. The full-on invasion that destroys the Ukrainian state and creates a greater Russia in one sweep, or the descent on Mariupol and across to the Dnieper for a land bridge with isolated Crimea. Ukraine could be brought down entirely, or left unable to breathe, economically and politically. Which approach Putin favours can only be guessed: anyone good at judo retains all options until the last millisecond.

​

There he stands: on the mat, match-fit, looking straight into our eyes. Can anything put him off? He has to worry a little that the West has recovered some balance in recent weeks. The Biden administration and Congress are preparing sanctions that would certainly hurt. The UK has rightly flown anti-tank missilesto Ukraine — full marks to Ben Wallace and the MoD. The use of intelligence reports to reveal Russian preparations is exposing in advance some of the tricks and false justifications Moscow employs.
Emmanuel Macron’s fantasy of the EU sorting matters out has been disappointing, as has German reluctance to cancel Nord Stream 2 or approve arms exports to Ukraine. There should be no moral equivocation about the right of a democratic country to defend itself against aggression. Yet overall, the West has improved its stance and straightened its spine.
But Putin will have one fear that is not yet fully exploited. When a judo match does not have a swift victory, it moves to what is euphemistically called “groundwork”. This can be an exhausting bout of wrestling, with the opening advantage often lost in an effort to pin down or slowly strangle the opponent. Victory is more draining and the outcome less certain. Russian forces do face a genuine risk that they will be drawn into a protracted struggle, against a local population better armed and more desperate than in the past. The West should openly intensify that risk.
That means preparing sanctions not only wide in scope but designed for long-term impact, even including the painful use of less Russian energy. It means being ready to assist Ukrainians, with any means short of our own armed intervention, if they are engaged in a protracted struggle. It requires a determination not to return quickly to negotiations after a Russian assault. And it involves a continued and rapid supply of equipment suited to confused, lengthy and local fighting.

Related articles​

Crisis talks over Ukraine as US troops put on alert
Kiev puppet is a part of Putin’s toolkit, warns US
Russia will weaponise UK gas supply, ministers warned

​

Shame he's not our PM

 

[robs1]

Shame he's not our PM

Be careful what you wish for, you wouldn't be able to publicly criticise him as you have our leaders,

 

[Lowland1]

Be careful what you wish for, you wouldn't be able to publicly criticise him as you have our leaders,

We wouldn’t need to he’s perfect. Plus would you argue with someone who fights bears.

 

[robs1]

We wouldn’t need to he’s perfect. Plus would you argue with someone who fights bears.

Didnt know JP fought bears,

 

[Lowland1]

Didnt know JP fought bears,

Probably hunts tigers and is a black belt in judo.

 

[Exfarmer]

Be careful what you wish for, you wouldn't be able to publicly criticise him as you have our leaders,

I rather think JP1 is talking about Hague not Vlad . He is probably right too, certainly could not be worse

 

[BrianV]

View attachment 1012470

And of course the EU & Nato would never do such a thing?