- Location
- Bay of Plenty NZ
There is non so blind as those that cannot see.
Invasion bets
- Thread starter beardface
- Start date
- Location
- Bay of Plenty NZ
It's not always about the money, just remember who won the second world war, it wasn't the USA or the Brits on their own, despite the propaganda from Hollywood to the contrary.
ollie989898
Member
Explain it to me. You seem to think Vlad has some kind of unstoppable military and should be appeased. Saddam had a supposedly pretty neat military back in 1991. He seized Kuwait and basically faced no resistance. It was believed he had plenty of toys and some very experienced men who had fought for years against Iran so they were well seasoned. In reality his whole expeditionary force could have fit in a phone box within a few months.
oil barron
Member
- Location
- Aberdeenshire
Western Europe’s idea of a fight is a jousting contest with a handshake afterwards.
Russia’s idea if a fight is a scramble in the mud to grab a knife to stab the other guy then rape his wife.
ollie989898
Member
I don't know what WW2 has to do with this in reality. The Russians did not fare well in Afghanistan, and they did not fare much better in Chechnya actually. They tried to strong arm a US military outpost in Syria, outnumbered the Americans by over 10 to 1, including no end of armoured vehicles and yet were handed their arshes in short order.
ollie989898
Member
You're confusing the present situation with game of thrones or something.
- Location
- Bay of Plenty NZ
He hasn't got an unstoppable military, no one has. Why do you suggest he is being appeased? There are murmurs of the Ukraine joining NATO, Putin would understandably be concerned about this, just as the USA would be if Mexico wanted to join the Warsaw Pact.
ollie989898
Member
The only people who need be concerned about Russia are the Germans who have decided to buy his natural gas. They could have built a pipeline from the middle east or just used tankers but they didn't want to do this.
You place great faith in the Russian military, who will be invading a country that is not theirs and potentially harming civilians and meeting armed resistance from Ukrainians who are otherwise an innocent from whom the Russians have already annexed part of their country.
I think you can appreciate why Eastern European states may be somewhat twitchy at all this, it may even explain why they wanted to join NATO in the first place.
- Location
- Bay of Plenty NZ
WW2 has nothing to do with the present situation, I merely mentioned is as many still believe today that the Brits and Sepos won the war, they didn't, it was a combined effort involving the Russians. they are seriously under estimated.
Afganistan? No one has fared well there including the Americans, as for getting your arshes kicked! Vietnam springs to mind, out gunned, fighting with a few sticks of bamboo, the Vietnamese took a knife to a gun fight and kicked the sh!t out of the Americans.
ollie989898
Member
I don't know what you are on about: I have read about WW2 extensively. I'm more confused as to why you even mentioned it.
Afghanistan, Vietnam, Korea, read about them all, I'm not sure what point you are making really.
Pieces_of_Eight
Member
The whole point of his Atlantic naval exercises is to pull Nato maritime assets away from the Eastern Med/Black Sea, giving breathing space for his next move.
Danllan
Member
- Location
- Sir Gar / Carms
We now have UK forces on 'ready', obviously not to go to Ukraine, but certainly East. They'll be joining those of Denmark, Spain, Bulgaria etc., and good on them. As I wrote earlier, if anyone wants to judge how benign Russian rule was, just ask those who lived under it and who take what Vlad is now doing very seriously.
Pieces_of_Eight
Member
Clockwork 22 is probably going to be a bit more than a chilly doss with expensive beers.
Exfarmer
Member
- Location
- Bury St Edmunds
There are people here several of them who are obviously listening to far too much RT Russia Today ( yes not the other hated organ) and believe that Vlad is a cuddly little Chao who just needs a little respect
Here is a very good reason for being very concerned about his actions written by William Hague in today's Times
they also on another page have grave concerns about Russias "Live Firing exercise off the South coast of Ireland , which incidentally is right over the main pathway of so many of the internet cables linking UK , Europe and the rest of the world. It has been suspected for some time that Russian submarines have been surveying these routes
https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?te...-vladimir-putin-the-judo-black-belt-xddfzdcql
https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sha...-vladimir-putin-the-judo-black-belt-xddfzdcql
Imust be one of the few people in the West who has discussed with Vladimir Putin the best techniques for flooring your opponent. This is because I took him to see the judo at the London Olympics in 2012: the one occasion that I met him when we got on well and had a lot in common. He is a highly proficient “judoka” and has a lifelong passion for the sport. I am less accomplished but developed an enthusiasm for judo in my thirties.
Seated in the Excel Centre as a Russian fought for a gold medal, we exclaimed excitedly whenever there was “ippon” (a clean throw) and deplored any “hiki-wake” (a draw). I remember the bafflement of the expert Russian-English translator who had been assigned to the meeting between the British foreign secretary and the president of Russia, only to find our conversation littered with Japanese. Then there was champagne all round when the Russian won, with huge relief on the face of Russian officials who were in no doubt they needed to produce a victory.
I recount this partly to illustrate an important fact in recent history: the West, including the UK, made a serious effort to improve relations with Moscow a decade ago. Obama, Cameron and Merkel were all keen on it. The head of the German navy resigned at the weekend because he claimed that all Putin wants is respect, but we spent years going to great lengths to give him respect. We countenanced moving on from measures rightly imposed after Alexander Litvinenko was murdered on British soil. We instituted regular talks between defence ministers — I chaired them with Sergei Lavrov. The West posed no military threat to Russia. There was plenty of respect.
Yet in spite of that, by 2014 Putin was invading eastern Ukraine and seizing Crimea. He feels threatened, not by western forces, but by the emergence of free peoples and independent countries on Russia’s borders. These are only threats because he has chosen to build a kleptocratic, authoritarian pyramid of financial and political power that he cannot afford to be contrasted with the spreading of freedom or prosperity in the same neighbourhood. He is the cause of his own insecurity. The respect he really wants is that we disown our own values and friends, and that is something we cannot provide.
The happy couple of hours we spent watching judo was part of the significant effort to improve relations, but it also gave me some impression of how he thinks. The tactics of judo are ingrained in him. Not surprisingly, he has an acute sense of when an opponent is off-balance. This is quite different from thinking they are weak. They are off-balance when you can see distraction in their eyes, perceive they are not ready for an attack, and feel they have more weight on one foot than the other. That is the moment to strike.
Putin has sensed all of this in the West in recent months. A chaotic retreat from Kabul, a US administration struggling with multiple domestic issues, a focus on China as if other potential threats have diminished, and a change of government in Germany all add up to a western world that is not steady on its feet. He knows this is the best moment in a long time to gain an advantage.
The Russian economy is smaller than Britain’s. Compared with the US it is tiny. But focus, discipline, technique and practice can often give victory to the smaller player in judo when the bigger one has lost their balance. Strong armed forces, locally concentrated and under strict central command, are Putin’s strategic equivalent of that.
His preference, of course, is for a deal that gives him much of what he would fight for. But if it comes to fighting, the “judoka” has a choice, and Putin relished discussing that. There is the dramatic move that brings the opponent crashing down. But the other option is to dominate them in stages, to gain a superior hold that constrains their options, and he loves that one. Soon, they can’t stand straight, are struggling to breathe properly and their hope is evaporating. They only lose on points, but the winner is clear.
Now he has a parallel military choice. The full-on invasion that destroys the Ukrainian state and creates a greater Russia in one sweep, or the descent on Mariupol and across to the Dnieper for a land bridge with isolated Crimea. Ukraine could be brought down entirely, or left unable to breathe, economically and politically. Which approach Putin favours can only be guessed: anyone good at judo retains all options until the last millisecond.
There he stands: on the mat, match-fit, looking straight into our eyes. Can anything put him off? He has to worry a little that the West has recovered some balance in recent weeks. The Biden administration and Congress are preparing sanctions that would certainly hurt. The UK has rightly flown anti-tank missilesto Ukraine — full marks to Ben Wallace and the MoD. The use of intelligence reports to reveal Russian preparations is exposing in advance some of the tricks and false justifications Moscow employs.
Emmanuel Macron’s fantasy of the EU sorting matters out has been disappointing, as has German reluctance to cancel Nord Stream 2 or approve arms exports to Ukraine. There should be no moral equivocation about the right of a democratic country to defend itself against aggression. Yet overall, the West has improved its stance and straightened its spine.
But Putin will have one fear that is not yet fully exploited. When a judo match does not have a swift victory, it moves to what is euphemistically called “groundwork”. This can be an exhausting bout of wrestling, with the opening advantage often lost in an effort to pin down or slowly strangle the opponent. Victory is more draining and the outcome less certain. Russian forces do face a genuine risk that they will be drawn into a protracted struggle, against a local population better armed and more desperate than in the past. The West should openly intensify that risk.
That means preparing sanctions not only wide in scope but designed for long-term impact, even including the painful use of less Russian energy. It means being ready to assist Ukrainians, with any means short of our own armed intervention, if they are engaged in a protracted struggle. It requires a determination not to return quickly to negotiations after a Russian assault. And it involves a continued and rapid supply of equipment suited to confused, lengthy and local fighting.
Kiev puppet is a part of Putin’s toolkit, warns US
Russia will weaponise UK gas supply, ministers warned
Here is a very good reason for being very concerned about his actions written by William Hague in today's Times
they also on another page have grave concerns about Russias "Live Firing exercise off the South coast of Ireland , which incidentally is right over the main pathway of so many of the internet cables linking UK , Europe and the rest of the world. It has been suspected for some time that Russian submarines have been surveying these routes
https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?te...-vladimir-putin-the-judo-black-belt-xddfzdcql
https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sha...-vladimir-putin-the-judo-black-belt-xddfzdcql
Imust be one of the few people in the West who has discussed with Vladimir Putin the best techniques for flooring your opponent. This is because I took him to see the judo at the London Olympics in 2012: the one occasion that I met him when we got on well and had a lot in common. He is a highly proficient “judoka” and has a lifelong passion for the sport. I am less accomplished but developed an enthusiasm for judo in my thirties.
Seated in the Excel Centre as a Russian fought for a gold medal, we exclaimed excitedly whenever there was “ippon” (a clean throw) and deplored any “hiki-wake” (a draw). I remember the bafflement of the expert Russian-English translator who had been assigned to the meeting between the British foreign secretary and the president of Russia, only to find our conversation littered with Japanese. Then there was champagne all round when the Russian won, with huge relief on the face of Russian officials who were in no doubt they needed to produce a victory.
I recount this partly to illustrate an important fact in recent history: the West, including the UK, made a serious effort to improve relations with Moscow a decade ago. Obama, Cameron and Merkel were all keen on it. The head of the German navy resigned at the weekend because he claimed that all Putin wants is respect, but we spent years going to great lengths to give him respect. We countenanced moving on from measures rightly imposed after Alexander Litvinenko was murdered on British soil. We instituted regular talks between defence ministers — I chaired them with Sergei Lavrov. The West posed no military threat to Russia. There was plenty of respect.
Yet in spite of that, by 2014 Putin was invading eastern Ukraine and seizing Crimea. He feels threatened, not by western forces, but by the emergence of free peoples and independent countries on Russia’s borders. These are only threats because he has chosen to build a kleptocratic, authoritarian pyramid of financial and political power that he cannot afford to be contrasted with the spreading of freedom or prosperity in the same neighbourhood. He is the cause of his own insecurity. The respect he really wants is that we disown our own values and friends, and that is something we cannot provide.
The happy couple of hours we spent watching judo was part of the significant effort to improve relations, but it also gave me some impression of how he thinks. The tactics of judo are ingrained in him. Not surprisingly, he has an acute sense of when an opponent is off-balance. This is quite different from thinking they are weak. They are off-balance when you can see distraction in their eyes, perceive they are not ready for an attack, and feel they have more weight on one foot than the other. That is the moment to strike.
Putin has sensed all of this in the West in recent months. A chaotic retreat from Kabul, a US administration struggling with multiple domestic issues, a focus on China as if other potential threats have diminished, and a change of government in Germany all add up to a western world that is not steady on its feet. He knows this is the best moment in a long time to gain an advantage.
The Russian economy is smaller than Britain’s. Compared with the US it is tiny. But focus, discipline, technique and practice can often give victory to the smaller player in judo when the bigger one has lost their balance. Strong armed forces, locally concentrated and under strict central command, are Putin’s strategic equivalent of that.
His preference, of course, is for a deal that gives him much of what he would fight for. But if it comes to fighting, the “judoka” has a choice, and Putin relished discussing that. There is the dramatic move that brings the opponent crashing down. But the other option is to dominate them in stages, to gain a superior hold that constrains their options, and he loves that one. Soon, they can’t stand straight, are struggling to breathe properly and their hope is evaporating. They only lose on points, but the winner is clear.
Now he has a parallel military choice. The full-on invasion that destroys the Ukrainian state and creates a greater Russia in one sweep, or the descent on Mariupol and across to the Dnieper for a land bridge with isolated Crimea. Ukraine could be brought down entirely, or left unable to breathe, economically and politically. Which approach Putin favours can only be guessed: anyone good at judo retains all options until the last millisecond.
There he stands: on the mat, match-fit, looking straight into our eyes. Can anything put him off? He has to worry a little that the West has recovered some balance in recent weeks. The Biden administration and Congress are preparing sanctions that would certainly hurt. The UK has rightly flown anti-tank missilesto Ukraine — full marks to Ben Wallace and the MoD. The use of intelligence reports to reveal Russian preparations is exposing in advance some of the tricks and false justifications Moscow employs.
Emmanuel Macron’s fantasy of the EU sorting matters out has been disappointing, as has German reluctance to cancel Nord Stream 2 or approve arms exports to Ukraine. There should be no moral equivocation about the right of a democratic country to defend itself against aggression. Yet overall, the West has improved its stance and straightened its spine.
But Putin will have one fear that is not yet fully exploited. When a judo match does not have a swift victory, it moves to what is euphemistically called “groundwork”. This can be an exhausting bout of wrestling, with the opening advantage often lost in an effort to pin down or slowly strangle the opponent. Victory is more draining and the outcome less certain. Russian forces do face a genuine risk that they will be drawn into a protracted struggle, against a local population better armed and more desperate than in the past. The West should openly intensify that risk.
That means preparing sanctions not only wide in scope but designed for long-term impact, even including the painful use of less Russian energy. It means being ready to assist Ukrainians, with any means short of our own armed intervention, if they are engaged in a protracted struggle. It requires a determination not to return quickly to negotiations after a Russian assault. And it involves a continued and rapid supply of equipment suited to confused, lengthy and local fighting.
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ollie989898
Member
He's always doing that. Been going on for decades. Damaging fibre optic cables- who gives a funk, they get damaged from time to time, they get repaired from time to time. It's no big deal.
Boomerang
Member
How did you find jake11 ? What did you put into search for it ?
oil barron
Member
- Location
- Aberdeenshire
William “i fuqed Lybia” Hague has been peddling various versions of this story for 7 years. He always fails to mention the EU signing a trade deal with the Ukraine which kicked off Russia having to take back Crimea.
oil barron
Member
- Location
- Aberdeenshire
Boomerang
Member
Putin needs a conflict (verbal or imaginary) don't think he wants a real fight. He then portrays himself to his own people as the strong man standing up to the big bad west. The biggest threat to him is his own people and he knows it .
It's all psychology to keep the populace on side, there has already been pockets of dissent/unrest . Once the people revolt in big enough numbers he's done . Look at kazakhstan you've lost it when you're shooting your own .(or rather get putin to do it ,dosnt look quite so bad then )
Will that happen before his numbers up who knows .
It's all psychology to keep the populace on side, there has already been pockets of dissent/unrest . Once the people revolt in big enough numbers he's done . Look at kazakhstan you've lost it when you're shooting your own .(or rather get putin to do it ,dosnt look quite so bad then )
Will that happen before his numbers up who knows .
oil barron
Member
- Location
- Aberdeenshire