Is there a decent long range forecast available

[Rob Holmes]

Sitting here with rain beating down on windows and looking at the 10 dy forecast wondering when I'll be able to start combining has made me wonder if there is a decent long term forecast in the hope that there will be some decent weather for harvest?

 

[chaffcutter]

I could do one that you would like to cheer you up Rob, but it might not bear much resemblance to reality!!

 

[Goweresque]

Do you mean a forecast with a more favourable prediction, or a more accurate one? Because as far as I can see, from looking at Simon Keelings site, the weather isn't going to get better as we go into August, its going to get worse, and the further north and west you are the worse that will be. Low pressure looks to be sat off us out in the Atlantic for the next few weeks at least, and that usually means wetter weather, especially north and west parts of the UK. All in all a pretty outlook..........

 

[Clive]

its certainly looking like grab it when you can and fire up the dryer for OSR here this year

 

[Eildon Hill]

try this......

Home Page

www.mwis.org.uk

 

[betternextyear]

In my experience and I have tried lots of weather forecasts, some paid for. None are reliable. Use your instincts at least its free.

 

[Goweresque]

try this......

Home Page

www.mwis.org.uk

Thats basically the same as Simon Keelings output - He's one of the senior forecasters used, and Garry Nicholson also does forecasts on Simon's site, www.weathwerweb.net

 

[Steevo]

I really don't think they have a clue!

BBC Forecast for the week ahead....looks at a glance to be a pretty changeable week. Yet ignoring the icons at the top and drilling down into the detail shows a bit of different story.....

Today = dry! (looking out the window shows this to be true!)

Thurs = summary is sunny, max chance of rain 9%

Friday = sunny, max chance of rain 4%

Sat - summary = sun and showers. Max chance of rain 24%

Sunday - sun and rain - max chance of rain = 16%

Monday - icon says clourd and breeze - yet detail shows max chance of rain 26%!

Tuesday - thundery showers and breeze - max chance 32%. Effectively the most likely time for rain....almost a full week away, yet still only a 1 in 3 chance of rain.

Wed - max chance of rain 34%

Thursday - max chance of rain 21%!

 

[Steevo]

On balance, the BBC forecast above could be taken to suggest I have a minimum 66% chance of dry weather each day for the next week or so, quite likely 75% chance on many days.

Compare that to my iPhone.....looking at that forecast you’d think we’d not have the combine out for a fortnight from Saturday onwards.

 

[milkloss]

Look out of the window, make a judgement, crack on!!

 

[jondear]

I know you harvest guys need the dry now but some of us haven't had enough rain to hardly damp the dust ! Somewhere in this changeable country the weather will be perfect!

 

[Pennine Ploughing]

lot think he forecast is no good, but rain has to start n stop somewhere, i remember chasing bales years ago behind 2 balers, and got rained off on one side of farm, went to the other side of farm and it was dry and still combing rest of that day and all the next day, while it was still raining at other side of farm, and to put this in context, the farm was in a ring fence

 

[marcot]

lot think he forecast is no good, but rain has to start n stop somewhere, i remember chasing bales years ago behind 2 balers, and got rained off on one side of farm, went to the other side of farm and it was dry and still combing rest of that day and all the next day, while it was still raining at other side of farm, and to put this in context, the farm was in a ring fence

And he only farms 10,000 acres [emoji3]

 

[landslave the 2nd]

I like www.netweather.tv in the model discussion forum as it looks at the output from the main 3 different models as well as others ,with some very respected posters in meteorology.
To try and grasp the trends in the post 96hrs and further out timescales.

 

[DRC]

August is often a wet month in Shropshire .
Bet I’ve combined more wheat in September than August in my farming career .

 

[Chae1]

Had a good week up here. Forecast wasn't good.

 

[Goweresque]

August is often a wet month in Shropshire .

August should really be part of autumn, in rainfall terms. Its a far wetter month on average than June or July. Indeed its wetter than Feb, April and May, and on a par with March as well.

 

[Grassman]

Doesn't appear to be any sign of settled weather for the next 2 weeks!

 

[Cripper]

Piers Corbyn Jezzas brother does long range forecasts based on his own solar model http://weatheraction.com/

 

[farmerm]

August is often a wet month in Shropshire .
Bet I’ve combined more wheat in September than August in my farming career .

I would second that view.