Is there a decent long range forecast available

Rob Holmes

Moderator
BASIS
Sitting here with rain beating down on windows and looking at the 10 dy forecast wondering when I'll be able to start combining has made me wonder if there is a decent long term forecast in the hope that there will be some decent weather for harvest?
 

Goweresque

Member
Location
North Wilts
Do you mean a forecast with a more favourable prediction, or a more accurate one? Because as far as I can see, from looking at Simon Keelings site, the weather isn't going to get better as we go into August, its going to get worse, and the further north and west you are the worse that will be. Low pressure looks to be sat off us out in the Atlantic for the next few weeks at least, and that usually means wetter weather, especially north and west parts of the UK. All in all a pretty :poop::poop::poop: outlook..........
 

Steevo

Member
Location
Gloucestershire
I really don't think they have a clue!

BBC Forecast for the week ahead....looks at a glance to be a pretty changeable week. Yet ignoring the icons at the top and drilling down into the detail shows a bit of different story.....

Today = dry! (looking out the window shows this to be true!)
Screenshot 2019-07-31 15.34.10.png



Thurs = summary is sunny, max chance of rain 9%

Screenshot 2019-07-31 15.34.18.png


Friday = sunny, max chance of rain 4%



Screenshot 2019-07-31 15.34.19.png



Sat - summary = sun and showers. Max chance of rain 24%

Screenshot 2019-07-31 15.34.22.png



Sunday - sun and rain - max chance of rain = 16%

Screenshot 2019-07-31 15.34.23.png


Monday - icon says clourd and breeze - yet detail shows max chance of rain 26%!
Screenshot 2019-07-31 15.34.25.png


Tuesday - thundery showers and breeze - max chance 32%. Effectively the most likely time for rain....almost a full week away, yet still only a 1 in 3 chance of rain.

Screenshot 2019-07-31 15.34.27.png



Wed - max chance of rain 34%

Screenshot 2019-07-31 15.34.29.png


Thursday - max chance of rain 21%!

Screenshot 2019-07-31 15.34.32.png
 

Steevo

Member
Location
Gloucestershire
On balance, the BBC forecast above could be taken to suggest I have a minimum 66% chance of dry weather each day for the next week or so, quite likely 75% chance on many days.

Compare that to my iPhone.....looking at that forecast you’d think we’d not have the combine out for a fortnight from Saturday onwards.

10289D52-528A-4DF2-937C-C4EAEB467083.jpeg
 

jondear

Member
Location
Devon
I know you harvest guys need the dry now but some of us haven't had enough rain to hardly damp the dust ! Somewhere in this changeable country the weather will be perfect!
 

Pennine Ploughing

Member
Mixed Farmer
lot think he forecast is no good, but rain has to start n stop somewhere, i remember chasing bales years ago behind 2 balers, and got rained off on one side of farm, went to the other side of farm and it was dry and still combing rest of that day and all the next day, while it was still raining at other side of farm, and to put this in context, the farm was in a ring fence
 

marcot

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Bury St Edmunds
lot think he forecast is no good, but rain has to start n stop somewhere, i remember chasing bales years ago behind 2 balers, and got rained off on one side of farm, went to the other side of farm and it was dry and still combing rest of that day and all the next day, while it was still raining at other side of farm, and to put this in context, the farm was in a ring fence
And he only farms 10,000 acres [emoji3]
 

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As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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