Milk Price Tracker

[jackrussell101]

My fear now is 29p will be the high water mark for non-aligned milk, I could be wrong but that's the impression I'm getting.

Don't get me wrong 29p's alot better than 26p, but if it goes down to low 20s again, or teens heaven forbid, then we really need a period of 32-34p in the good years to make it sustainable.

 

[dinderleat]

My fear now is 29p will be the high water mark for non-aligned milk, I could be wrong but that's the impression I'm getting.

Don't get me wrong 29p's alot better than 26p, but if it goes down to low 20s again, or teens heaven forbid, then we really need a period of 32-34p in the good years to make it sustainable.

Nothing drives price like lack of supply

 

[Rossymons]

Nothing drives price like lack of supply

Or too much...

 

[dinderleat]

Or too much...

Yep it’s fairly simple

 

[jackrussell101]

And that's basically what's happening with the aligned pools, rotary parlours going in left, right and centre on Tesco farms around here.

 

[Tarw Coch]

And that's basically what's happening with the aligned pools, rotary parlours going in left, right and centre on Tesco farms around here.

The COP contracts have skewed the laws of supply and demand

 

[jackrussell101]

The COP contracts have skewed the laws of supply and demand

Exactly this.

Tesco farm down the road from me barely milked a couple of hundred 5 years ago, now will be pushing nearly 900 this Autumn, 3 times a day system so alot of litres. Would they be expanding at the same pace had they received 20p four years ago and 26p for the last 18 months? I think not.

Muller have most of the aligned COP contracts and as a consequence simply have too much liquid milk, consequently knocking onto the middle ground liquid processors as a result, keeping non-aligned liquid prices subdued, certainly in Middle England at least.

 

[Tarw Coch]

Exactly this.

Tesco farm down the road from me barely milked a couple of hundred 5 years ago, now will be pushing nearly 900 this Autumn, 3 times a day system so alot of litres. Would they be expanding at the same pace had they received 20p four years ago and 26p for the last 18 months? I think not.

Muller have most of the aligned COP contracts and as a consequence simply have too much liquid milk, consequently knocking onto the middle ground liquid processors as a result, keeping non-aligned liquid prices subdued, certainly in Middle England at least.

Your Tesco man isn’t being fully governed by supply and demand, i very much doubt Tesco have a need for approx 5 times as much milk off him as a couple of years ago, not sure exactly how they allocate litres to a farm but any surplus will be dropped in to the non aligned pool but if a significant number of aligned farms are ramping up production like that they’re either going to be getting the aligned price on a reducing percentage of their milk or the supermarkets are going to think they don’t need so many aligned suppliers.
As nice as it might be to receive an aligned milk price I think you’d need to be careful how much debt you took on to ramp up output as there’s a very realistic possibility for some that they’ll get ousted and will need to service that debt on a non aligned milk price

Although the situation could be even worse as a non aligned, 34 producers are having their contracts terminated as Muller have more milk than they need, and I’m sure we can all work out where it’s coming from

 

[DairyGrazing]

Worked against them in Scotland and so has the 50% capital grant the Scottish Government was running (with an eye on independence.? They ended up with loads of milk and no market.

Plenty of those expanding Tesco farms have gone pop one way or another.

 

[bigw]

I think Tesco want to reduce the number of farms in their aligned pool, i cant remember the figure being quoted but will mean their farm sizes will continue to grow. Farm numbers will continue to fall mainly due to what milk contract you can get.

 

[Bald Rick]

I think Tesco want to reduce the number of farms in their aligned pool, i cant remember the figure being quoted but will mean their farm sizes will continue to grow. Farm numbers will continue to fall mainly due to what milk contract you can get.

IIRC, they drop the bottom 10% each time.

Whether they get existing suppliers to up their output or seek new farms, I don't know

 

[bigw]

IIRC, they drop the bottom 10% each time.

Whether they get existing suppliers to up their output or seek new farms, I don't know

I believe they have number of producers that they want to get to

 

[Rossymons]

IIRC, they drop the bottom 10% each time.

Whether they get existing suppliers to up their output or seek new farms, I don't know

That was often quoted but did it ever happen?

 

[jimmer]

At our buyers farmer meeting, they gave the number of litres that left the pool, be it changed buyer or sold up etc, it was eye opening, and that's just on 300 odd suppliers

 

[sidjon]

That was often quoted but did it ever happen?

They don't need to , couple mates have left tesco and moved the wkye and are making more money as only 75% of thier milk was payed at tesco rate and rest at non aligned and we've looked at a couple of bankruptcy tesco farms too.

 

[nonemouse]

They don't need to , couple mates have left tesco and moved the wkye and are making more money as only 75% of thier milk was payed at tesco rate and rest at non aligned and we've looked at a couple of bankruptcy tesco farms too.

Everybody seems to think the guys on aligned contracts are rolling in money, I wouldn’t be so sure. Trying to keep level supply and comply with every latest supermarket initiative and then ending up which ever firm of consultants is in favour with your buyer soon racks up costs.

 

[frederick]

At our buyers farmer meeting, they gave the number of litres that left the pool, be it changed buyer or sold up etc, it was eye opening, and that's just on 300 odd suppliers

Yes but did the overall supply drop. Or did everyone else make it up.

 

[jimmer]

Yes but did the overall supply drop. Or did everyone else make it up.

They were recruiting (we were one) so total volume went up

 

[Fools Gold]

IIRC, they drop the bottom 10% each time.

Whether they get existing suppliers to up their output or seek new farms, I don't know

I think even quite a few processors who don’t have aligned pools have adopted a policy of “Deil tak the hindmost”
Big easy to access producers with nice level production who can fill a good portion of a tanker is what they want.

 

[westwards]

FM 29.53p B/f 4.03 P 3.43 with all bonuses