Quarantine and idiots

[bobk]

You’ll need plenty of lights and work at night.
Brief respite at the mo, turning hot again from Thursday

I know, seen the forecast . may have to invest in piscine ...

 

[JP1]

Own goals, own goals

Criticism over lack of social distancing as people queue outside Ipswic...

A group of “at least 100” people were seen queueing outside Sin Bar in Ipswich on Saturday night, with passers-by criticising a lack of...

www.eadt.co.uk

 

[Still Farming]

More Lockdowns up North

 

[DRC]

More Lockdowns up North

Birmingham very close to it as well

 

[Still Farming]

Birmingham very close to it as well

Innovation and then Lamma be in peril again is it??

 

[DRC]

Innovation and then Lamma be in peril again is it??

You’d be mad to go anyway in my opinion

 

[Gedd]

Birmingham very close to it as well

Birmingham is the Midlands

 

[DRC]

Birmingham is the Midlands

Yes I know that. It was a reply to still farming saying, more lockdown up north .

 

[YorkshireAndrew]

I happened to drive through a suburb of Leeds today , folk were queuing outside a Wetherspoons to get in , you can’t educate stupid .

 

[Still Farming]

You’d be mad to go anyway in my opinion

Yes I know that. It was a reply to still farming saying, more lockdown up north .

North from us???

 

[Tarw Coch]

I happened to drive through a suburb of Leeds today , folk were queuing outside a Wetherspoons to get in , you can’t educate stupid .

Happening at pubs the length and breadth of the country, an awful lot of people either complacent or ignoring the rules , it’s not just pubs in fairness.
According to my logic cases of CV ought to be soaring but they’re not, last estimates I saw on infection were that approx 3.6 million have had CV so we’re nowhere near herd immunity yet,
I know levels of movement and more to the point large gatherings are nowhere near pre covid levels but then again we’re a long way on from lockdown too. Judging by what I’m seeing I’d have expected infection rates to be rising.

 

[Hindsight]

Happening at pubs the length and breadth of the country, an awful lot of people either complacent or ignoring the rules , it’s not just pubs in fairness.
According to my logic cases of CV ought to be soaring but they’re not, last estimates I saw on infection were that approx 3.6 million have had CV so we’re nowhere near herd immunity yet,
I know levels of movement and more to the point large gatherings are nowhere near pre covid levels but then again we’re a long way on from lockdown too. Judging by what I’m seeing I’d have expected infection rates to be rising.

But infection rates are rising?! But it is all very local (need to define local - in March local was UK - in August local is by town/city - or even council electorate wards within towns / individual factories) And thus it will become a problem locally - or nationally if these 'local' increases spread or become more widespread across the country.

And then the complication of 'so what'. If the infections and rising infection rates are not leading to hospitalisations, stretching hospitals and preventing the urgent other work of hospitals does it matter - of course I have ignored deaths. If death rate rises then is that an urgent issue. In March/June every CV19 death was considered a national disaster - even if the poor person who dies was 94. As a society we have to decide if preventing all deaths by CV19 is imperative. If so then lcokdown for ever. If it is just another disease then no. The Teachers may have a say in this. And the old folks.

Fascinating.

Government decision. By insisting the schools open we can see the direction of travel - I think. Until pictures of old folks dieing and folk stacked up in hospitals on venitlators t- then government will panic into lockdowns.

 

[Tarw Coch]

But infection rates are rising?! But it is all very local (need to define local - in March local was UK - in August local is by town/city - or even council electorate wards within towns / individual factories) And thus it will become a problem locally - or nationally if these 'local' increases spread or become more widespread across the country.

And then the complication of 'so what'. If the infections and rising infection rates are not leading to hospitalisations, stretching hospitals and preventing the urgent other work of hospitals does it matter - of course I have ignored deaths. If death rate rises then is that an urgent issue. In March/June every CV19 death was considered a national disaster - even if the poor person who dies was 94. As a society we have to decide if preventing all deaths by CV19 is imperative. If so then lcokdown for ever. If it is just another disease then no. The Teachers may have a say in this. And the old folks.

Fascinating.

Government decision. By insisting the schools open we can see the direction of travel - I think. Until pictures of old folks dieing and folk stacked up in hospitals on venitlators t- then government will panic into lockdowns.

CV death rate is currently fairly low, it hasn’t taken out all the old people nor all the vulnerable, I know several and they’re all live and well.

 

[Highland Mule]

As a society we have to decide if preventing all deaths by CV19 is imperative. If so then lcokdown for ever.

No, in that case lockdown will be until we get a vaccine, the virus becomes less nasty and we find humans have resistance or the virus burns itself through enough of the population that the transmission rate drops and it effectively burns itself out (aka herd immunity).

Until pictures of old folks dieing and folk stacked up in hospitals on venitlators t- then government will panic into lockdowns.

Interesting choice of words. Reactive local lockdowns suggest panic to you? To me they suggest we are getting a better level of monitoring and are starting to be able to react faster and more emphatically. Is it a panic every time you touch the middle pedal in a manual gearbox car?

 

[Highland Mule]

According to my logic cases of CV ought to be soaring

What's the basis for your transmission model ("logic")? If it was only just spreading in the past (R was above unity but not hugely so - around 3 at worst I think), and we now have far less frequent and populous social interactions with each other, then it stands to reason that R will be less than it was. The epidemiologists reckon pretty close to unity now, but if your model (logic) suggests much higher if you believe case should be soaring and they're not, then maybe the problem is with it?

 

[Hindsight]

No, in that case lockdown will be until we get a vaccine, the virus becomes less nasty and we find humans have resistance or the virus burns itself through enough of the population that the transmission rate drops and it effectively burns itself out (aka herd immunity).



Interesting choice of words. Reactive local lockdowns suggest panic to you? To me they suggest we are getting a better level of monitoring and are starting to be able to react faster and more emphatically. Is it a panic every time you touch the middle pedal in a manual gearbox car?

Ok i doh - vaccine then rather than for ever.

'Interesting choice of words' - You are too deep a thinker old fella. Your interpretation of the word 'panic' and self imposing it onto how I intended it to be read. Bit complex that for me. Just how it is a possibility the press might portray things. Nope local lockdowns make sense to me. Better than the whole UK being locked down.

Cheers. Plums to pick for the freezer now.

 

[Tarw Coch]

What's the basis for your transmission model ("logic")? If it was only just spreading in the past (R was above unity but not hugely so - around 3 at worst I think), and we now have far less frequent and populous social interactions with each other, then it stands to reason that R will be less than it was. The epidemiologists reckon pretty close to unity now, but if your model (logic) suggests much higher if you believe case should be soaring and they're not, then maybe the problem is with it?

When lockdown first came in it was fairly well respected, essential travel and essential workers only, the roads were unbelievably quiet but even with that level of people movement it took a long time for the number of deaths and infections to drop, certainly a lot longer than the 14 days the govt recommend to quarantine for.

It was several weeks before lockdown started to break down, with mass gatherings, BLM protests and a couple of large raves in Manchester at which point the death rate was still fairly high, i and many others expected a spike but we haven’t seen one.

Since then lockdown has ended, many buisnesses that were shut down are back up and running, the roads are pretty much back to normal, and with the pubs open social distancing is far from being observed by many, there were some mass fights in our local town when the pubs re opened caused it would seem by many from a Welsh town who’s pubs hadn’t re opened at that point plus there’s plenty of photos on Facebook of groups of friends out for the night all huddled together. Not that I’ve been to the pub to see for myself but I live close enough to see what’s going on and I have plenty of experience to know that alcohol lowers inhibitions.

Yet despite a lot more people contact the figures keep on dropping, that’s a good thing obviously but not what I’d have expected.

 

[Highland Mule]

When lockdown first came in it was fairly well respected, essential travel and essential workers only, the roads were unbelievably quiet but even with that level of people movement it took a long time for the number of deaths and infections to drop, certainly a lot longer than the 14 days the govt recommend to quarantine for.

It was several weeks before lockdown started to break down, with mass gatherings, BLM protests and a couple of large raves in Manchester at which point the death rate was still fairly high, i and many others expected a spike but we haven’t seen one.

Since then lockdown has ended, many buisnesses that were shut down are back up and running, the roads are pretty much back to normal, and with the pubs open social distancing is far from being observed by many, there were some mass fights in our local town when the pubs re opened caused it would seem by many from a Welsh town who’s pubs hadn’t re opened at that point plus there’s plenty of photos on Facebook of groups of friends out for the night all huddled together. Not that I’ve been to the pub to see for myself but I live close enough to see what’s going on and I have plenty of experience to know that alcohol lowers inhibitions.

Yet despite a lot more people contact the figures keep on dropping, that’s a good thing obviously but not what I’d have expected.

I agree it's not as well respected as it was, but it still is respected by a silent majority. Very few church services, football matches, some pubs but not on the scale of before, cafes and restaurants have fewer tables and big gaps, no theatres, concerts, gyms, etc. people working from home so no office groups. That all helps to stop a small spread becoming a larger one, even if things aren't perfect. In February, I worked on a site with many thousands of others. Last week I saw and spoke to fewer than a dozen.

They want to get as much of the country moving as they can, but also keep the R number close to but below 1. That's a tricky thing to model but I suspect it went from ~5 to <<1 and is now back to ~1, although I understand there's little data to back that up as a theory. I'd say that they are opening things gradually and keeping an eye on it, plus refining the transmission models all the time to get a better prediction. I read somewhere (probably the early SAGE minutes) that the expectation and modelling was based on 50% compliance with lockdown. I'd say it was far better than that at the start, and is probably at least that good.