Not sure being right on this would be a good outcome for the West, far too many arguments on migrant numbers already, somehow forcing Putin to an agreement to allow the Ukrainian population to stay put even under Russian control would be better, how many other non EU/NATO countrie's residents may feel it's a very sensible time to head for the West under the cover of a Ukrainian exodus & how could you possibly tell who"s who?just hope you are right, but you can't second guess a nutter.
What worries me, is public opinion affecting common sense, and making intervention a real possibility. And the fact that the sanctions are to effective, and as one top brass russian said, our only weapon against sanctions, is nuclear. Back a nutter into a corner, without a 'get out path' there's no way of knowing what he will do.