The "I`ve got it" thread...

[DrWazzock]

In our small rural village, population 180, 6 known cases, including 1 who returned with it from abroad and 4 residents he passed it on to. 1 other unconnected case. Thankfully no deaths but a 23 year old with underlying conditions in hospital for a while with resultant blood disorder and one of the older cases still struggling with blood clots/thrombosis. That’s cases that were bad enough to show/test as Covid. Could be others with mild or no symptoms.
If the picture in our village was scaled up nationally I’d expect at least 2 million cases across the country by now, possibly many more as we have no public transport or facilities here, no pub, no shop no communal facilities other than a post box.
Also the role of air travel in the spread of this virus cannot be ignored. It’s been and remains the most significant source of infection in this area, seeding it into erstwhile virus free communities, and posing a much greater risk than spreading within the local community which seems to be been greatly slowed by current measures.

 

[Princess Pooper]

Saw a summary of research today that showed that the 'start' of the real spread in the UK was not from people coming in from China, but from Europe, especially Italy (skiing holidays), no real surprises there.

 

[RushesToo]

In our small rural village, population 180, 6 known cases, including 1 who returned with it from abroad and 4 residents he passed it on to. 1 other unconnected case. Thankfully no deaths but a 23 year old with underlying conditions in hospital for a while with resultant blood disorder and one of the older cases still struggling with blood clots/thrombosis. That’s cases that were bad enough to show/test as Covid. Could be others with mild or no symptoms.
If the picture in our village was scaled up nationally I’d expect at least 2 million cases across the country by now, possibly many more as we have no public transport or facilities here, no pub, no shop no communal facilities other than a post box.
Also the role of air travel in the spread of this virus cannot be ignored. It’s been and remains the most significant source of infection in this area, seeding it into erstwhile virus free communities, and posing a much greater risk than spreading within the local community which seems to be been greatly slowed by current measures.

Your village is actually a really good example of a cluster outbreak. This is what track and trace can deal with. When people don't mix this level of infection is containable.

Trying to manage infection with a system such as "Transport For London" in the mix is somewhat more ...... difficult.
Makes it easier for New Zealand to get it right [that and starting earlier]

 

[ridger]

Saw a summary of research today that showed that the 'start' of the real spread in the UK was not from people coming in from China, but from Europe, especially Italy (skiing holidays), no real surprises there.

All joking aside, there should be no skiing this winter. It's not essential and who wants this virus

 

[JCMaloney]

As at midnight on 7 June 2020

Patients currently being treated for COVID-19: 83

Total patients treated for COVID-19 who have been discharged: 845

Total confirmed and nationally announced deaths positive for COVID-19: 365

Still awkward numbers and who knows what will happen once all the beach goers, protesters etc go home and see their elderly relatives? Cautiously optimistic seems to be the thinking at the moment.

As at midnight on 9 June 2020

Patients currently being treated for COVID-19: 75

Total patients treated for COVID-19 who have been discharged: 862

Total confirmed and nationally announced deaths positive for COVID-19: 372

Numbers are currently falling sharply which suggests less very ill folk. However it`s what infectivity in the community that needs to be understood.

 

[Steevo]

That's very encouraging news.

The "unknown" is the real issue as you say - it's a mystery that the government seem to test 1500 positive cases each day, yet estimates believe there are 5500 or so new cases each day. That's 3000 people that aren't being tested - 2/3rds.

Are they worried about becoming a statistic and being told they and their associates must isolate?

 

[Wurzeetoo]

@JCMaloney any idea if the labs processing the home tests work weekends? Or is the 48hr return time office hours based? Stuck at home at the moment and have got night shifts lined up for Tuesday night if results come back clear but think I’m cutting it a bit fine if they are collected tomorrow. Cheers mate ??

 

[JCMaloney]

@JCMaloney any idea if the labs processing the home tests work weekends? Or is the 48hr return time office hours based? Stuck at home at the moment and have got night shifts lined up for Tuesday night if results come back clear but think I’m cutting it a bit fine if they are collected tomorrow. Cheers mate ??

Can`t answer for the Lighthouse/External Labs but ours is running 24/7 and nearly melting.
Our results are on the system in 48 hours but you probably then need an "office wallah" to tell the patient and that will be Mon-Fri office hours in our case.

 

[Wurzeetoo]

Cheers @JCMaloney ??

 

[rob1]

All joking aside, there should be no skiing this winter. It's not essential and who wants this virus

think you will find it is very essential for the inhabitants of the ski areas, perhaps we should stop al football and golf for the same reason if someone doesnt want to take the small risk of catching this virus they can stay in their own home, not sure why thousands of people should have their livelyhoods destroyed because of the worries of others

 

[Old Boar]

For any stats geeks out there............ https://avatorl.org/covid-19/

Some interesting stuff there - one thing that comes across is that the UK is not very good in terms of death rates - you are half as likely to die in the USA as in the UK with the virus. I wonder what we do differently?

 

[rob1]

Some interesting stuff there - one thing that comes across is that the UK is not very good in terms of death rates - you are half as likely to die in the USA as in the UK with the virus. I wonder what we do differently?

could be genetic reasons or simply the way the deaths are counted. over the next two years it should be easier to compare the excess deaths each country has had

 

[Hindsight]

In our small rural village, population 180, 6 known cases, including 1 who returned with it from abroad and 4 residents he passed it on to. 1 other unconnected case. Thankfully no deaths but a 23 year old with underlying conditions in hospital for a while with resultant blood disorder and one of the older cases still struggling with blood clots/thrombosis. That’s cases that were bad enough to show/test as Covid. Could be others with mild or no symptoms.
If the picture in our village was scaled up nationally I’d expect at least 2 million cases across the country by now, possibly many more as we have no public transport or facilities here, no pub, no shop no communal facilities other than a post box.
Also the role of air travel in the spread of this virus cannot be ignored. It’s been and remains the most significant source of infection in this area, seeding it into erstwhile virus free communities, and posing a much greater risk than spreading within the local community which seems to be been greatly slowed by current measures.

Air travel - same then as the migrating wildfowl returning in autumn bring a new mutant bird flu strain to out Broiler and Egg laying units.

 

[Hindsight]

Some interesting stuff there - one thing that comes across is that the UK is not very good in terms of death rates - you are half as likely to die in the USA as in the UK with the virus. I wonder what we do differently?

Obese. Says I tucking in to a Wispa bar and eyeing up a cake!

 

[Spartacus]

could be genetic reasons or simply the way the deaths are counted. over the next two years it should be easier to compare the excess deaths each country has had

I suspect that the way we have to do everything by the book will be the reason our death rate appears so high, don't get me wrong, the numbers aren't good, but I would think in a year or two we will see that other countries havent had the same belt and braces approach with counting the deaths.

 

[Kidds]

I think in less than a year or two we will see just how most western countries are being run by complete and utter morons. That is providing that those that want to know the truth can see past the lies of those said morons.

 

[czechmate]

Obese. Says I tucking in to a Wispa bar and eyeing up a cake!

I thought they were even more obese in the us.

 

[JCMaloney]

Lots of "stuff" will emerge from the data this has generated that will have far reaching consequences for decades to come.
There will also be far more deaths caused by Covid than deaths from Covid as people delay treatment, the NHS back log builds and the mental health aspects kick in, then factor in a depression of the global economy.
Happy days.

 

[Steevo]

I think in less than a year or two we will see just how most western countries are being run by complete and utter morons. That is providing that those that want to know the truth can see past the lies of those said morons.

Don't hold back on our account....

 

[Short_Angus]

I suspect that the way we have to do everything by the book will be the reason our death rate appears so high

Good friend of mines father died in hospital last week, he had been in poor health for some time, and had been in and out of hospital a few times over the last few months.
Despite 3 clear covid tests, cause of death was put down as covid on the death certificate.

On the other hand my elderly cousin died 2 months ago.
He was in a care home with dementia and was covid positive.
His wife was asked if she wanted covid mentioned on the death certificate

Doctors with an agenda??? Who knows???