The big slice of luck you talk about very much depends on age and BMI would you agree?
Option 3 is constantly moving goalposts with no long-term safety data. Why does the majority doing their bit affect anything?
The worldwide death graph on those info sites show deaths reducing steadily in waves from last winters peak. I can't see any dramatic change from introduction of vaccines.
The big slice of luck is certainly influenced by comorbidities. If you`ve got COPD, heart issues, suppressed immune system, diabetes, obese etc etc then its far safer to get the jab and avoid getting Covid.
The death rate decrease won`t be "dramatic" because the rollout to the population takes time and is gradual so, amazingly, the reduction in deaths will reduce steadily.