Trade deal - a two way road

[Goffer]

If a trade deal is going to be so difficult to agree onwith the EU how much or little common agricultural produce will not enter the U.K. ? And what will it do for the same produce here.....

 

[Sussex Martin]

If we don't get a deal and we have to use WTO rules and tariffs then agricultural produce can have as much as 100% tariffs so may be a good thing for fruit and veg and beef farmers.

 

[bobk]

If we don't get a deal and we have to use WTO rules and tariffs then agricultural produce can have as much as 100% tariffs so may be a good thing for fruit and veg and beef farmers.

Where are your fire extinguishers made Martin?

 

[Sussex Martin]

Where are your fire extinguishers made Martin?

Northern Ireland .

 

[bobk]

Northern Ireland .

That's shut me up.

 

[Sussex Martin]

Where are your fire extinguishers made Martin?

Northern Ireland .

Just to let you know, extinguishers are only a small part of our business, yes we import products from the EU so will have some issues if there isn't a decent deal reached but as the average WTO tariff is 2.5% I believe then it won't be a disaster but will cause a few headaches. About 70% of our business is U.K. manufactured.

 

[Exfarmer]

The answer is how long is a piece of string?
It will be entirely within the powers of the EU and our government, how much access is granted either way.
The EU will be thankful for any surplus agricultural production that our government will take, remember alll those revolting EU farmers.
They in turn will be less keen on accepting our produce , unless they are in dire shortage.
Our government will be very keen for the EU to allow our financial sector to be allowed free play in the EU,remember even the WTO has little to say on finanacial rules between members. The Swiss and American banks have to have offices in London to be able to trade freely in Europe and they may have to vacate to Frankfurt to retain such arrangements.
The EU will be equally keen for their car manufacturers to have free access here a highly lucrative market at the moment.
There will be much horse trading , with Brussels determined no full market access without freedom of movement and our government desperate for our financial services to have continued access.
Agriculture is not very likely to figure much in the discussions

 

[Frank-the-Wool]

Having been involved in trading directly with European countries my single greatest concern is that when we are outside of the Single Market, there will be the inevitable barriers put up.
Tariffs are a potential issue, especially for sheep meat, however these may be insignificant compared with the disruption that will occur at borders.
No Single market and no Customs union will mean that all goods in and out will have to go through a clearance process as there will be VAT and other taxes that will have to be paid and inspection regimes put back in place.

I am old enough to remember the tortuous process of queuing at borders throughout Europe waiting for paperwork to be inspected and often having to have loads checked. Customs seals will be put back on loads.
Yes I know it will be both ways, but any disruption to trade is a bad thing.

Companies that import products from the EU may have to carry more stock as the present "Just in Time" system will not work. Spare parts for machines from the EU that come in overnight will have to be cleared and values checked to ensure the correct tax is paid. All of this will take extra time.
Tariffs and VAT on goods that come in or go out will normally have to be paid at the point of entry.

I know modern technology should simplify this but there will be the potential for delays at the ports. Anyone who has passed through Dover or the Channel Tunnel will have an idea of the volume of lorries going in and out.

 

[matthew]

@Frank-the-Wool said:
"Tariffs are a potential issue, especially for sheep meat, however these may be insignificant compared with the disruption that will occur at borders."

Well hallelulah. Someone is awake - even if the Brexit negotiating team are not. And Leadsom and the NFU leaders have yet to meet them.

BIPs - Border Inspection Posts. Absent within the castle of the Single Market, but will need to be up and running for us to enter that castle, if the drawbridge is not to remain firmly shut.
Tariffs are an incidental to this. Especially for agriculture.

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86412

and

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86370

 

[Exfarmer]

The disruption at bordes will be as much as the importing country wants it to be.
I rather suspect ours will change little, with inspection of cargoes based upon the present system of checking a small proportion of containers or lorries to confirm the goods are as described on the manifest.
What attitude the French Belgian Dutch etc take to our goods will be another matter.

 

[Guy]

This kind of things make me chuckle ..I hear comments like under WTO trade terms "oh beef , sheep and milk prices might go up by 3p ooh great, I knew Brexit was a good idea"
However pretty much every single item of machinery, pharmaceuticals, sprays and chemicals is imported, from the EU. WTO tariff will be around 7%, plus manufacturers will add the same as customs procedures are a faff...and expensive..
So, 3p more for what you produce, and 14% increase in costs .. added with the fact the U.K. Exports lamb, beef and fish to the EU and with WTO terms those buyers will simply go elsewhere means it will be horrendous for farmers...
oh and don't hold hope on "we can export to the rest of the world" North America, South America, Australia, New Zealand all have better beef, sheep and milk industries than us.. and produce it cheaper, without subsidy.
oh and dont think for one minute we will stop imports of cheap food from far away countries as we will be pretty much agreeing any terms offered to us by pretty much any other country. With Brexit you have been sold a pup...I do believe after 10 or 15 years things will be fine but in the meantime buckle up.. it's going to get rough ...

 

[JP1]

This kind of things make me chuckle ..I hear comments like under WTO trade terms "oh beef , sheep and milk prices might go up by 3p ooh great, I knew Brexit was a good idea"
However pretty much every single item of machinery, pharmaceuticals, sprays and chemicals is imported, from the EU. WTO tariff will be around 7%, plus manufacturers will add the same as customs procedures are a faff...and expensive..
So, 3p more for what you produce, and 14% increase in costs .. added with the fact the U.K. Exports lamb, beef and fish to the EU and with WTO terms those buyers will simply go elsewhere means it will be horrendous for farmers...
oh and don't hold hope on "we can export to the rest of the world" North America, South America, Australia, New Zealand all have better beef, sheep and milk industries than us.. and produce it cheaper, without subsidy.
oh and dont think for one minute we will stop imports of cheap food from far away countries as we will be pretty much agreeing any terms offered to us by pretty much any other country. With Brexit you have been sold a pup...I do believe after 10 or 15 years things will be fine but in the meantime buckle up.. it's going to get rough ...

In your (good) analysis, you also forgot the "well they want to sell us their BMWs and Audis". True and our Company car culture, must-have attitude and lease deals will mean we just import and pay the tariff. Now sheepmeat going to France (420,000 metric tonnes) ...........

 

[Pieces_of_Eight]

No UK politician will want voters to be paying any more for food.

It has been said several times that the Irish border will not be a physical border controlling the flow of people and goods.

Will this make NI a boom economy for trade?

 

[Pennine Ploughing]

we import more goods than we export, so what ever tariffs are imposed on us, we just charge the same % to them, there would be a very large cash surplus each month, so UK government could pay all duty on our export's and after covering costs still have cash left over, yes inputs would rise, but would help our export trade

 

[matthew]

Tariffs are not the problem They are negotiable.
BIPs are the law outside fortress Single Market and will be a huge bottleneck.

 

[Exfarmer]

we import more goods than we export, so what ever tariffs are imposed on us, we just charge the same % to them, there would be a very large cash surplus each month, so UK government could pay all duty on our export's and after covering costs still have cash left over, yes inputs would rise, but would help our export trade

Ok so the Euro puts 50% tariff on lamb, does not help if we respond the same as we do not import any amount of EU lamb.
The government would not care anyway, if it helped financial services to stay in the UK

 

[7610 super q]

This kind of things make me chuckle ..I hear comments like under WTO trade terms "oh beef , sheep and milk prices might go up by 3p ooh great, I knew Brexit was a good idea"
However pretty much every single item of machinery, pharmaceuticals, sprays and chemicals is imported, from the EU. WTO tariff will be around 7%, plus manufacturers will add the same as customs procedures are a faff...and expensive..
So, 3p more for what you produce, and 14% increase in costs .. added with the fact the U.K. Exports lamb, beef and fish to the EU and with WTO terms those buyers will simply go elsewhere means it will be horrendous for farmers...
oh and don't hold hope on "we can export to the rest of the world" North America, South America, Australia, New Zealand all have better beef, sheep and milk industries than us.. and produce it cheaper, without subsidy.
oh and dont think for one minute we will stop imports of cheap food from far away countries as we will be pretty much agreeing any terms offered to us by pretty much any other country. With Brexit you have been sold a pup...I do believe after 10 or 15 years things will be fine but in the meantime buckle up.. it's going to get rough ...

I'm happy to take my £20 t increase in corn price.......and not spend any money on machinery/ chems from the EU.

 

[Pennine Ploughing]

Ok so the Euro puts 50% tariff on lamb, does not help if we respond the same as we do not import any amount of EU lamb.
The government would not care anyway, if it helped financial services to stay in the UK

you know 50% would be over the top in your post,
and what i meant was and lets say a 50% tariff is the order of the day,
then there would be 50% on all goods, so the likes of the extra money on all the imports would leave plenty of cash for the gov to pay your tariff on the lamb as it left the country, no extra of the tariff is passed back to the farmer, I know your going to say, we wont be able to sell to the Eu as with the tariff it will be to dear and not compete, but remember there goods will be 50% dearer coming into this country, so with the rise of imported food, the home grown market prices will go up, as demand for cheaper home grown food thought time prices will rise with demand

like i say tell them we want to trade with them, and would like to think that they want to trade with us,
tell them that they themselves can set the trade deal and tariffs, and we will match it, the ball is in there court them,

 

[Guy]

we import more goods than we export, so what ever tariffs are imposed on us, we just charge the same % to them, there would be a very large cash surplus each month, so UK government could pay all duty on our export's and after covering costs still have cash left over, yes inputs would rise, but would help our export trade

Not on calculations based on size of population.. per person we export more than we import.. the alleged trade deficit figures were manipulated by the leave campaign..
We are the ones leaving.. therefore items we send outside the EU that are tariff free will be eligible for tariffs post Brexit, as our economy contracts our consumers will buy less..

 

[Exfarmer]

We can tarriff their goods and our consumers will pay this tarriff. That is how things work. They tax our lamb and the French consumer pays a few extra Euro, we tax their Champagne, and the Hooray Henry's will pay another few quid for getting pee'd.
However nothing we can do if they say Barclays and co. cannot trade in Europe unless they pay their billions of quid in tax to Frankfort or Paris.
Not Just Barclays but Credit Swiss and Bank of America etc.