Virus, long term policy.

[Greythundercloudys]

On the news today reporters have got it in to there heads that this shut down will last 13 weeks, that's nearly 1st of July, l think this will happen, l wonder what getn silage wrap or clipping sheep will be like, a single shearer suits me anyway, probably last most of this year l think.

 

[snarling bee]

Not easy. But this virus is not going away anytime soon.
ATM we have dedicated machines, toolboxes, grease gunsetc, so no jumping on each others tractors etc. Tea room for one employee only (the other doesn't drink hot drinks), gloves to be used in workshop at all times, nobody within 4m of anybody else etc etc.

 

[Steevo]

It depends what you term "lockdown". From what Dep. Chief Med. Officer said, it will likely be released in stages - but that all depends on how much of a handle they get on things. It will be reviewed every three weeks after making each change - if numbers get better, more relaxed, if numbers get worse then tightened again.

China were 2/3 months in lockdown. She hinted we could be six months or more before we go back to normal.

Certainly it'll be a while before we're back to mingling in pubs/bars. But other things may go back quicker if suitable systems can be put in place to limit the spread. As was mentioned in another thread - the virus doesn't move, we move it.

 

[Derrick Hughes]

Hopefully by they they will be issuing immune passports

 

[SilliamWhale]

Look whatever we do, its going to come back.

Unless we have a vaccine...

 

[Greythundercloudys]

Defo, everyone in the country will need a jag next year or it will never be gone completely, that could be next summer.

 

[upnortheast]

They don`t know yet how long any immunity will last. Anything from 1 month to 1 year seems the possible range.
Going to need the vaccine to really get on top of it IMO

 

[gone up the hill]

On the news today reporters have got it in to there heads that this shut down will last 13 weeks, that's nearly 1st of July, l think this will happen, l wonder what getn silage wrap or clipping sheep will be like, a single shearer suits me anyway, probably last most of this year l think.

Silage wise there will be very little made, will be no spare parts/ oils etc

Will be a very reduced corn harvest as they will have the same problems.

Very unlikely to be able to get silage/bale/ net wrap etc.

No parts from the like of IAE/ electric fence suppliers/ timber/ etc etc

Very few if any car/ truck parts, tyre supply etc will be a problem

If this goes on for 3 months at least which she is suggesting but I don't think the public will wear it for much more than 3 more weeks as everything will grind to a halt by then and people will be fed up just sat at home doing nothing for that long!

If it goes on for three+ months then there wont be an economy left.

 

[Lewis821]

Wearing parts for autumn cultivations could be an issue, starting to struggle for parts now with 6-7 weeks of cultivations left

 

[Derrick Hughes]

They don`t know yet how long any immunity will last. Anything from 1 month to 1 year seems the possible range.
Going to need the vaccine to really get on top of it IMO

People have been tested who got Sars in 2003 and they still have antibodies

Survivors of MERS did generate an immune response to the virus that can be detected up to two years later, And the more ill the patient was, the more robust and long-lasting the immune response.

 

[gone up the hill]

People have been tested who got Sars in 2003 and they still have antibodies

Survivors of MERS did generate an immune response to the virus that can be detected up to two years later, And the more ill the patient was, the more robust and long-lasting the immune response.

The government don't seem that bothered about testing anyone, their plan seems to be to lock down the UK for months and months even thou other country's start to lift the lockdown after 6/7 weeks.

 

[Henarar]

The government don't seem that bothered about testing anyone, their plan seems to be to lock down the UK for months and months even thou other country's start to lift the lockdown after 6/7 weeks.

they said they would review it in three weeks

 

[4course]

Silage wise there will be very little made, will be no spare parts/ oils etc

Will be a very reduced corn harvest as they will have the same problems.

Very unlikely to be able to get silage/bale/ net wrap etc.

No parts from the like of IAE/ electric fence suppliers/ timber/ etc etc

Very few if any car/ truck parts, tyre supply etc will be a problem

If this goes on for 3 months at least which she is suggesting but I don't think the public will wear it for much more than 3 more weeks as everything will grind to a halt by then and people will be fed up just sat at home doing nothing for that long!

If it goes on for three+ months then there wont be an economy left.

1 we will make as much silage/haylage as usual plastic in place
2 doubt we will have a problem harvesting machine winter serviced wearing parts on shelf
3 see 1
4 job sorted pallet from mcveigh arrived last week
5 hire it
6 agree public wont wear it
7strategy to survive or devil take the hindmost policy being constantly updated 3months 3 weeks or3 years

reckon you are being too much of a doom monger but then im in the camp of you make your own luck but tomorrow will go get some extra tyres as well as order/ prepay for harvest diesel

 

[gone up the hill]

they said they would review it in three weeks

This or a more severe lockdown will go on for at least 12 weeks if the public wear it but from what iv seen and what shop etc staff are saying that will be very unlikely as tempers are getting raised a lot already and we aren't a week in.

Weather has helped this weekend keep people in but as soon as it comes nice/ sunny/ warm etc in 2/ 3 weeks time I think they will struggle to keep people locked indoors any longer!

My biggest concern is getting parts/ repairs done and supply's of all other key inputs because as it looks now with all these company's shutting down we wont be able to get anything in 4/6 weeks time if this carry's on like this.

The 80% scheme has backfired, it should have only been given to sectors like pubs etc that were ordered quite rightly by the government to shut down.

 

[gone up the hill]

1 we will make as much silage/haylage as usual plastic in place
2 doubt we will have a problem harvesting machine winter serviced wearing parts on shelf
3 see 1
4 job sorted pallet from mcveigh arrived last week
5 hire it
6 agree public wont wear it
7strategy to survive or devil take the hindmost policy being constantly updated 3months 3 weeks or3 years

reckon you are being too much of a doom monger but then im in the camp of you make your own luck but tomorrow will go get some extra tyres as well as order/ prepay for harvest diesel

1 fine if you already have it
2 Already problems getting parts, no way you will get hold of them if this carry's on for much more than another 3 weeks.
5 Very unlikely you will be able to hire anything for much longer as for example they have already stopped car sales.
6 Public defo wont wear it
7 Isolate the old/ elderly etc, keep pubs and things like that closed but let the rest of the country get back to work.

 

[Greythundercloudys]

Hasn't car, house or any other sale just stopped because no one has much money or don't won't to spend what they have.

 

[wanton dwarf]

On the news today reporters have got it in to there heads that this shut down will last 13 weeks, that's nearly 1st of July, l think this will happen, l wonder what getn silage wrap or clipping sheep will be like, a single shearer suits me anyway, probably last most of this year l think.

I think the top Civil Servants will want to extend the lockdown.

But I think it's getting a bit silly ..

A lot of self employed work alone or in small teams. A lot of shops should be able to operate using delivery services and I'm sure many other situations COULD be changed to reduce the likelihood of spreading the virus.

Some work should have been planned in how to reduce contact between people during normal working life and small teams organised to implement those changes.

Once they are done in a small area .. start trials of various options .. monitor rates of infection .. and install the best solutions where possible.

But I guess all of this is impossible unless everyone concerned can be tested every so often .. but it looks like HMG has spent far too much time arguing about Brexit & Climate Change .. whilst China was the obvious problem.

 

[Steevo]

Look whatever we do, its going to come back.

Unless we have a vaccine...

Maybe so......but if you could suspend all contact between humans for 3 weeks or so, then anyone with the virus would have "got it" and hopefully have some immunity and thus not be infectious, and those who haven't "got it" have kept away from those who have so can be sure they don't have latent exposure.....at that stage, surely there would be no human hosts? It can only live on surfaces for hours/days, so it would likely be gone from those too at this stage.

I get that keeping all non-household human contact apart is next to impossible, but it shows how you could get on top of this virus (in a lab environment for example) pretty quickly.

What am I missing?

 

[Bertram]

@gone up the hill

I’m a pretty agreeable sort of fellow, me. I believe in live and let live, and I‘m glad of the fact that most of us have differing opinions on all sorts of stuff, otherwise the world would be a dull place.

But. Your constant doom mongering on every thread concerning Covid and it’s various effects on supply, economy, health or anything else is really starting to p*ss me off. Yes, we all know it could take a very long time for things to get back to “normal.” Very, very few people are in denial of how serious this is. But when any discussion is peppered with your mostly unsubstantiated banging on of the same thing, it’s not only unhelpful, but also causing extra anxiety for those who are already frightened. When you do this about the NFU, it’s mildly entertaining, if a little repetitive. But now, frankly, it’s offensive. People don’t need any more sh*t to deal with.

Have a think on it?

 

[GeorgeK]

Our cases should be starting to decline within a month. By this time widespread, rapid testing will allow restrictions to be partially lifted so most businesses can reopen. Some travel and distancing restrictions will need to be maintained so outbreaks can be identified and controlled quickly before they spread. Early next year a vaccine will be available. Hopefully.

But frankly the shape the economy will be left in, the best policy business-wise is to buy gold and go live in a cave for at least 2 years. When you come out the cave use the gold to buy several airlines