wanton dwarf
Member
If I sold the balance of my wheat at these prices, that's £990/AC output including straw but without bps. Yikes.
But what will the price of Nitrogen be in the future ? Even will there be enough next year ?
If I sold the balance of my wheat at these prices, that's £990/AC output including straw but without bps. Yikes.
My current challenge is getting five minutes to get a preem on when it's daylight and calm. Fert is in the shed. Wasn't cheap. Wasn't dear. But I've got it.
And as you know. I dofutures may 22seems to be stuck a couple of £below 220 reckon its the yo yo effect,same with nov 22 atm im nay nay dont think grain is there for may and too far ahead for next yearbut im tempted though I dont like the phrase " if thats the worst you sell at "
a chap who was retired but" well set "years ago told me that you learn from hindsight but you progress with foresight , just wish id listened thenAnd as you know. I do
Not the question though is it .. what's gonna happen to Fert in the coming year all over the world - because that has a direct effect on supply.
I don't see any solutions on the Natural Gas front - yet.
BoJo is also gonna tax NG.
Fert short all over the world.
Weird isn't it ? Going from enough to not enough within one year.
Common factor being the move out of Coal in the West.
Fertiliser production is a casualty of gas consumption instability brought about by covid. Manufacturing processes which use gas shut down during Covid. Now they are using more gas than normal to replenish run down stocks of goods reliant on gas. But there will be an overshoot in production and gas consumption will fall a bit below normal in a year or so. There could be a bit of a roller coaster as the system stabilises. It will get back to "normal" despite global warming greenhouse talk. Make the most of it. I don't foresee high commodity prices long term.
They are short of coal since they fell out with australiaI've a feeling a lot of Chinese urea / fert relies on coal for the power, and they have had mine flooding issues? Either way, countries that normally export are keeping hold. Countries that normally import are squeeking a bit.
Yes we will see a reduced supply of food next year. What happens thereafter will depend on whether the Russians and China continue a cold economic war with Western Europe , restricting gas supply.If there is higher demand than normal. Then the only way that can be rectified is an increase in supply. But that isn't happening - even the politics isn't there to support an increase in supply. In the case of China they are reducing supply.
So I think we'll see a reduced supply of food next year.
If we fracked our own gas we could solve the problem, but the green loons won’t allow it, they’d rather see the masses in penury.Yes we will see a reduced supply of food next year. What happens thereafter will depend on whether the Russians and China continue a cold economic war with Western Europe , restricting gas supply.
Watch out for a softening of western political attitude to Russia / China. As it is the Russians could literally freeze the EU to death if they wanted to. Big strategic mistake relying on Russian gas. Expect big push to mitigate that.
NoDoes the high protein red wheat we import need high amounts of N like UK wheat needs?
They are flexing their muscles prior to cop 26.Yes we will see a reduced supply of food next year. What happens thereafter will depend on whether the Russians and China continue a cold economic war with Western Europe , restricting gas supply.
Watch out for a softening of western political attitude to Russia / China. As it is the Russians could literally freeze the EU to death if they wanted to. Big strategic mistake relying on Russian gas. Expect big push to mitigate that.
should have to pass an intelligence test to voteIf we fracked our own gas we could solve the problem, but the green loons won’t allow it, they’d rather see the masses in penury.
Watch out for a softening of western political attitude to Russia / China. As it is the Russians could literally freeze the EU to death if they wanted to. Big strategic mistake relying on Russian gas. Expect big push to mitigate that.