Will you keep wearing a mask when you don't have to?

[bobk]

No dancing at weddings for you bob I guess?

Sadly not , I'll get over it .

 

[essex man]

Just copied these couple of sentences from a BBC news analysis piece - given this then presume restrictions will probably stay until mid 2022!! I will get a multi buy pack of masks!

Infections are currently climbing sharply and modellers believe this could realistically translate into around 1,000 hospital admissions a day later in the summer.
That is equivalent to what the NHS would face for all types of respiratory illness in the middle of a bad winter.

Tbc in the midst of rising infections of the "deadly" virus your chances of making it through the month are likely the highest in human history whatever age you are

 

[Lowland1]

No idea Bob. Reckon these modellers should return to their Airfix 1:24 scale Spitfire kit that mum bought them in 1976.

No they probably doused it with lighter fluid set it alight and threw it out the window to prove how dangerous spitfires were.

 

[Sonoftheheir]

Just copied these couple of sentences from a BBC news analysis piece - given this then presume restrictions will probably stay until mid 2022!! I will get a multi buy pack of masks!

Infections are currently climbing sharply and modellers believe this could realistically translate into around 1,000 hospital admissions a day later in the summer.
That is equivalent to what the NHS would face for all types of respiratory illness in the middle of a bad winter.

Does anyone believe that bullox? They must pick the most pessimistic “expert modellers” they can find?

Did anyone see the news conference last night? Did anyone actually ask why they let the Indian variant in?

 

[teslacoils]

I can't square up the thinking that seems to suggest that all risk to humans in anything is bad / that the value of one human life is millions, yet at the same time it's all our fault that were destroying the world due to overpopulation.

 

[Highland Mule]

Does anyone believe that bullox? They must pick the most pessimistic “expert modellers” they can find?

Context is everything. Unless you have studied the actual model and can pick holes in it, don't blame the modellers. They were likely asked to come up with a worst case with no mitigation/ militation model, a best estimate model assuming mitigation & militation and a range in between. It's not their fault if the journalists and politicians take the information and report it out of context and from a basis of misunderstanding.

that the value of one human life is millions

That's about the figure they use for health and safety risk avertion purposes in the UK - if you remember all the rail bridge parapets getting an upgrade after Selby, it would have been on a cost/ benefit basis of around £2M/ premature death averted - before applying the "grossly disproprtionate" test, so perhaps an order of magnitude more as the soft threshold.

 

[Lowland1]

Thes

Does anyone believe that bullox? They must pick the most pessimistic “expert modellers” they can find?

Did anyone see the news conference last night? Did anyone actually ask why they let the Indian variant in?

The Indian variant arrived because even though they knew about it for three weeks the Government was trying to do a trade deal with India so it didn’t close the borders until it was too late even though there were several direct flights everyday from India.
As for modelling think of it like farming you can plant the same amount of seed and spread the same amount of fertiliser every year for ten years and get ten different results. It’s just guessing unless you remove the variables which is what the Government has been trying to do be keeping everyone away from each other.

 

[Raider112]

Just copied these couple of sentences from a BBC news analysis piece - given this then presume restrictions will probably stay until mid 2022!! I will get a multi buy pack of masks!

Infections are currently climbing sharply and modellers believe this could realistically translate into around 1,000 hospital admissions a day later in the summer.
That is equivalent to what the NHS would face for all types of respiratory illness in the middle of a bad winter.

That can't be right, someone on here was adamant it was seasonal and would die out in summer.

 

[essex man]

That can't be right, someone on here was adamant it was seasonal and would die out in summer.

There are few if any deaths from respiratory virus in the summer in the UK, that's how we have measured the impact of this in the past .
There are few, if any deaths from respiratory virus now, that will continue, same as last year, same as every year.

 

[betweenthelines]

Must say, after due consideration, I'll continue to wear a mask.



But then, I am a Bank Robber

 

[Mr Mackay]

There are few if any deaths from respiratory virus in the summer in the UK, that's how we have measured the impact of this in the past .
There are few, if any deaths from respiratory virus now, that will continue, same as last year, same as every year.

Heres some decent reading for you Mr Essex , seeing as you love your figures !!

Measuring mortality during Covid-19: a Q&A

With a year having passed since the start of the first lockdown, Sarah Scobie answers some key questions on how mortality figures are collected and measured during the Covid-19 pandemic. This explainer was originally published last May, was updated again in October and in January, and has now...

www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk

 

[essex man]

Heres some decent reading for you Mr Essex , seeing as you love your figures !!

Measuring mortality during Covid-19: a Q&A

With a year having passed since the start of the first lockdown, Sarah Scobie answers some key questions on how mortality figures are collected and measured during the Covid-19 pandemic. This explainer was originally published last May, was updated again in October and in January, and has now...

www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk

Yes, thankfully the only thing that is uncorruptable by the nonsense are actual numbers of coffins.
You do obvs have to allow for population growth, demographics etc

These figures are not in dispute though are poorly understood.

 

[Mr Mackay]

Yes, thankfully the only thing that is uncorruptable by the nonsense are actual numbers of coffins.
You do obvs have to allow for population growth, demographics etc

These figures are not in dispute though are poorly understood.

I will just copy and paste this bit for you .

However, the number of weekly deaths we have seen during the Covid-19 pandemic is among the highest on record, even with lockdown measures. Previous peaks in deaths have occurred over winters when there were bad outbreaks of flu. During the winter of 1999/2000, there were 18,000 deaths recorded in one week – which would be equivalent to over 21,000 deaths given today’s larger population.


Over the past 20 years, death rates have declined overall, so the increases we are seeing now are very significant.

 

[Lowland1]

Fear over freedom: Here's what the doom-laden government graphs didn't show us

Putting the data in context, it is clear that the scale of a 'third wave' is not in the same league as those we have already faced

www.telegraph.co.uk

Bit from the Telegraph you can make graphs do what you want them to do.

 

[essex man]

I will just copy and paste this bit for you .

However, the number of weekly deaths we have seen during the Covid-19 pandemic is among the highest on record, even with lockdown measures. Previous peaks in deaths have occurred over winters when there were bad outbreaks of flu. During the winter of 1999/2000, there were 18,000 deaths recorded in one week – which would be equivalent to over 21,000 deaths given today’s larger population.


Over the past 20 years, death rates have declined overall, so the increases we are seeing now are very significant.

Err you going to get higher raw numbers if you have more people.
If you have more people but a higher percentage of them are old you will get higher numbers still.
If you have more people, higher percentage of them old and a higher percentage of them sick you get more numbers still.

If you have more people, a higher percentage are old, a higher percentage sick plus make medical progress against the more consistent death causes you will get higher numbers in lumps(higher one week in Jan figures effectively)

It all mostly comes out in the age standardized mortality figures.
Although one week or even one year figures are not representative

It's just a question of understanding what's in front of you

 

[essex man]

100k+ deaths in Dec/Jan/
I think from memory happened 2017/18 and 2020/21

Those lumps would be previously more spread out among more consistent death causes, which medical science has made progress against.

It's a mark of progress that people stay alive in a weak enough state for a virus as non deadly as c19 to finally be a comorbidity.

 

[essex man]

Figures for 2017/18 109k in Dec/Jan
2020/2021 129k Dec/Jan

2015/16 - 92k

 

[essex man]

More people dying at the end of a year they have survived as a result of progress against other causes of death should be considered a sign of progress I guess
Although for some conditions, I know being alive for longer is not necessarily welcome.

 

[Mr Mackay]

Youre obsessed

 

[essex man]

Youre obsessed

Err no, although I like to be thorough and talk things through with qualified scientists and statisticians when attempts are made to curtail what I took to be my right to personal freedom.