Winner or loser after reform?

[Cowcalf]

I'll be much the same.A lot of suckler farmers simply won't have enough subsidy to support their current number of cows on current costs and systems.For an awful lot,the only answer will be to put the cows away.

Agree, but then where do guys who have put up lot of sheds for fattening get their beasts, it will knock on right down the line.. A suckler that gets support supports a lot of folk right down the line to the plate, and in some cases keeps country side looking well.

 

[DrDunc]

Its not going to put sheep back on the hills tho is it?

The big estates will not restock the hills unless an "active farming" regulation was imposed, but all available coupled support has been directed to the beef calf scheme.

The barren scrub will therefore remain untended.

What's worse is the already fragile suckler cow sector is going to be relegated to the few lowland farms that are currently mixed livestock / arable units. Dumfries and Galloway and the North East of Scotland are the biggest losers.

The arable farms look to be relatively unaffected.

 

[hindmaist]

Agree, but then where do guys who have put up lot of sheds for fattening get their beasts, it will knock on right down the line.. A suckler that gets support supports a lot of folk right down the line to the plate, and in some cases keeps country side looking well.

The finishers will have to go to the market and bid as they currently do.Theres just not going to be so many cattle available.It will take a serious rise in the fat to keep supply up.Thats the way it looks,anyway.

 

[TheRanger]

What type of farm is a winner?
Medium scale all arable?

A dairy farm that didn't grow much grain or raise many stores in the years 1999-2001?

 

[neilo]

New entrants?

 

[Well Refreshed]

New entrants?

£55/ha for the first 54ha for those under 40 and under 5 years "in charge"......

 

[neilo]

£55/ha for the first 54ha for those under 40 and under 5 years "in charge"......

That's a lot better than the zero they get now, without massive investment, then.

Not up to speed on the Scottish proposals. Are they looking at moving to a level/flat rate by 2019 like the Welsh? If so, would that £55/ha new entrant figure increase each year until then?

 

[le bon paysan]

Under the new french system the first 52 hectares are more heavily subsidized. We are already below the national average per hectare but are going to lose another 25000 euros because we farm a larger than average area

Being smack on Mr average (72 Hc) we will be up on the ground but will lose on the cows. End = about the same.

 

[lady muck]

Sac were saying something about there having to be contract farming agreements to replace seasonal lets..?

What id like to know is what will happen when my tenancy runs out? Will they take it back in hand? I got the 5 yr sldt in 2011.

This is so that the owner can prove he is an active farmer as RPID will be looking at their input receipts i.e if owner is claiming subsidy he will need to prove he is not a slipper farmer. My interpretation of your tenancy is that you cannot be given another 5 year SLDT as they cannot be given back to back so their options will be a contract farming agreement year to year or they will have to give you a longer 15 year tenancy.

 

[DrDunc]

This is so that the owner can prove he is an active farmer as RPID will be looking at their input receipts i.e if owner is claiming subsidy he will need to prove he is not a slipper farmer. My interpretation of your tenancy is that you cannot be given another 5 year SLDT as they cannot be given back to back so their options will be a contract farming agreement year to year or they will have to give you a longer 15 year tenancy.

Aye, that's already happening on my estate. The laird's factors (Smith gore) anticipated the "need" for the laird to be an active farmer to obtain the single payment.

One partnership is been dissolved, the tenant kicked out, and a three year contract setup!

The tenants on land not on an sldt/ldt are getting the rents hiked ludicrously to try to get them out.

(edit, though I suppose they'll just not be renewed, so perhaps this is just an attempt to get high rents for comparables in secure tenancy negotiations and get them out)

The 91 act secure tenants are also being asked for crazy increases (so far without written justification as per the new code of conduct), even though the weather and lamb prices have meant a fairly large downturn in economic returns for all on this estate.

The Scottish government has been trying to prop up the beef sector, and to encourage more land to be released for tenancy after the 2003 act fiasco.

Land based subsidy will effectively wipe out any hope for both of these aspirations.

 

[SilliamWhale]

I'm not sure the "losers" are actually losers. They will be eligible for the same money as everyone else in their area.

Still think the best they can do it taper it off with a decent payment for the first 100 acres and cut it off at 50k. Don't see why anyone needs more than £50k of free money

 

[bigw]

I'm not sure the "losers" are actually losers. They will be eligible for the same money as everyone else in their area.

Still think the best they can do it taper it off with a decent payment for the first 100 acres and cut it off at 50k. Don't see why anyone needs more than £50k of free money

 

[bigw]

I'm not sure the "losers" are actually losers. They will be eligible for the same money as everyone else in their area.

Still think the best they can do it taper it off with a decent payment for the first 100 acres and cut it off at 50k. Don't see why anyone needs more than £50k of free money

I don't agree, all that would do is split businesses up into smaller ones. Why should a one man band get a different rate of support compared to a larger business employing several people? I don't actually know what they are trying to achieve with the current and proposed systems, a decent fair price from the market would be the best of the lot.

 

[DrDunc]

I don't agree, all that would do is split businesses up into smaller ones. Why should a one man band get a different rate of support compared to a larger business employing several people? I don't actually know what they are trying to achieve with the current and proposed systems, a decent fair price from the market would be the best of the lot.

A decent fair market price would mean doing away with subsidies first.

To do that would mean thousands of beaurocrats would become superfluous.

Can you really see them willing to give up their vested interest and stop generating themselves work?

 

[Muck Spreader]

Just run our French farm through the Scottish Calculator and the figures come out very similar, so you must have been coining it in Scotland up till now.

 

[DrDunc]

Just run our French farm through the Scottish Calculator and the figures come out very similar, so you must have been coining it in Scotland up till now.

Right then, would you like to swap farms? I'd love to increase my stocking density.

You may find to your liking the far shorter growing season, colder temperatures, poor fertility soil, high rainfall, etc etc.

 

[SilliamWhale]

I don't agree, all that would do is split businesses up into smaller ones. Why should a one man band get a different rate of support compared to a larger business employing several people? I don't actually know what they are trying to achieve with the current and proposed systems, a decent fair price from the market would be the best of the lot.

Yes you are probably right. But why would a business use an area based SFP to employ people? Out of the goodness of their hearts? That is an immensly luxurious position to be in and not great business sense surely?

Agree totally on last sentence, food is undervalued but the nation needs to keep inflation down so...

 

[Muck Spreader]

Right then, would you like to swap farms? I'd love to increase my stocking density.

You may find to your liking the far shorter growing season, colder temperatures, poor fertility soil, high rainfall, etc etc.

Ha ha, you won't increase your stocking density much here, as for growing season it's April/May and Sept/Oct if your lucky. Rainfall.. oh hell I am starting to sound like the "four Yorkshire men"

 

[KennyO]

IS the figure that comes out of the calculator what we are likely to receive? or will they modulate some more off?

Ours only comes out as a 2k less than what we currently receive with modulation etc however it is about 10k less than the value of our current entitlements

 

[lady muck]

IS the figure that comes out of the calculator what we are likely to receive? or will they modulate some more off?

Ours only comes out as a 2k less than what we currently receive with modulation etc however it is about 10k less than the value of our current entitlements

Final figures wont be clarified until the spring after the consultation is finished. modulation is 9.5%. Reading the calculator I think the 9.5% has already been deducted before it was divided by the number of eligible hectares.