farmerm
Member
- Location
- Shropshire
And how much will the flying pigs be worth?
Beef / Lamb & Pig Price Tracker
- Thread starter TFF
- Start date
Northeastfarmer
Member
- Location
- Cleveland
Aye and I’ll bet you this time last year you wouldn’t of dreamt in your wildest dreams they be £150 this spring
farmerm
Member
- Location
- Shropshire
I doubt you dreamt it either My Brexit analysis tells me £50 is way the more likely scenario for next spring... but I will be happy enought if we meet in the middle.
harperfarmer
Member
They're not alone on that. At our local market we'll get a print out on the day for our weights and prices. Then when the cheque comes the following week the weights might have miraculously fallen despite the price/head staying the same, giving a better p/kg for the averages. As long as I receive the correct amount in the lump then I'm not too bothered but it has led me to take markets reports with a pinch of salt (well, even more so than before).
joshp217
Member
- Location
- Not so sunny west wales
Lambs at 3.80 with farmers fresh this morning
Northeastfarmer
Member
- Location
- Cleveland
The only thing I’d do with any Brexit analysis is wipe my arse with it
- Location
- Mendips Somerset
note on this weeks report from Robert Venner auctioneer for sedgemoor , i recon he pretty close to the truth ,
"There is currently a lot of talk about a “no deal” or a “disorderly hard Brexit”. I have been told by a very experienced EU agricultural negotiator that there will be a deal. However due to the way the EU operate it will probably be struck on 30th March, when Brexit day is the 29th . Furthermore, if we “crash” out onto WTO trading arrangements, the tariffs the EU can impose on sheep meat are maximums. They do not have to impose any tariffs at all. Both sides have said they would like to achieve a tariff free trading arrangement! Do not give up on sheep production for fear of tariffs, which might not ever be imposed! "Robert Venner Managing Partner of Sedgemoor mkt
livestock 1
Member
/QUOTE]
We were talking about this the other day. It’s likely that any deal would be struck at the last minute. Like everything else.
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Tin hat on....
The auctioneer is being economical with the facts. Abattoirs are multi million pound set ups, if a deal is not done by Febuary, they will start cutting staff and emptying chillers. They are not going to be caught out with chillers full of lamb, worth hundreds of thousands of pounds on 29/3/2019 knowing tariffs could be imposed.
A drop in price will start to be seen from mid January onwards. Please bear in mind there are no ethnic festivals until after Brexit, so there is nothing else to prop the trade.
This is just my view so please don't shoot me down. I know of a few French customers sourcing lamb from Spain already, so the backup plans are well underway.
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livestock 1
Member
You could be right. Who benefits from us loosing our export to the eu? Would our lamb divert elsewhere? I think the biggest problem will be lack of confidence if it’s left until the last minute. There will be a poor demand for lamb until something positive happens.
Hopefully, a deal will be done soon. I really hope so, this is so unfair on store sellers, who have seen their stock devalued.
I honestly don't know where lamb would go, we will find a market no doubt whatsoever, because the product is the best in the world without any shadow of a doubt and quality always sells, it's the time in between Brexit and finding alternative markets which could be damaging.
Like I said hopefully everything will be resolved beforehand.
- Location
- Northumberland
Very interesting and you could be well right.The trade could crash end Jan,Feb,March,then pick up again in April/May. Squeaky bum time for hogg feeders.The auctioneer is hardly going to say anything else is he? even if he does have first hand knowledge from a negotiator.
livestock 1
Member
There’s a few less lambs about so that’s one positive thing
It's costs £10,000 just to open the front gates of an abattoir each morning, trust me I know, been there.
Abattoirs will run 3 days a week and cut down on agency staff, nobody can afford to have chillers full of lamb knowing full well the export trade could be lost overnight.
Even if some keep lines going, they will bid less taking in to account any possible tariffs they may have to pay.
Once again could I stress, a deal will hopefully be concluded way in advance.
livestock 1
Member
And auctioneers are a good hand at gambling with other folks money. They are experts at it
cattleman123
Member
- Location
- devon
Seems he is worried about the lamb trade..and his company losing out on commission if trade drops...trying to keep the trade up...store lambs are going one way .down at the moment we have the perfect storm everthings against us...
Before GUTH and Co come and start arguing with me. Please could I stress that I know I am being negative, but I am only stating the facts, not trying to talk down the trade.
I will probably be proved wrong on many things, but I have simply made my judgements, based upon the facts that I can see before me. I hope some of you can quote my posts and prove me wrong in March.
Lamb is a perishable item and buyers will start cutting back several weeks before Brexit, they do not want to be caught out with chillers full of a product they may have difficulty in selling.
I will probably be proved wrong on many things, but I have simply made my judgements, based upon the facts that I can see before me. I hope some of you can quote my posts and prove me wrong in March.
Lamb is a perishable item and buyers will start cutting back several weeks before Brexit, they do not want to be caught out with chillers full of a product they may have difficulty in selling.
livestock 1
Member
No one can predict the lamb trade. No one ever has. If you could we would all be millionaires