£200 fat lamb

[glasshouse]

If a 40kg lamb kills out at 50% then bones put at 75% that is only 15kg of meat. At £200 lamb that’s £13.33kg before it has been killed, butchered and retailed.

No, £200 will not become the norm, as only a tiny proportion of customers could afford it.

50% of a 40kg lamb is 20kg of meat , not 15kg
Lamb is not cheap anymore

 

[Kiwi Pete]

Or focus on grass fed grass finished easy care type sheep? Lower input costs but same margin to compete with white meat.

I fear the future may lie in much more cooperation between farmers in an area than everyone in direct competition with one another.
At present farmers tend to be very insular and competitive, a major hurdle in many ways, as it simply drives production costs up and plays into the hands of everyone else.

Farmers seem to be annoyed with this and yet do absolutely nothing about changing it, once you teach a flea it can't jump out of the bowl it will stop jumping when you take the wrap off...

 

[shearerlad]

A lot less muslims in scotland, they are the big lamb eaters

I can’t remember the exact figures that Tim Heap said on countryfile (if you believe it anyway) but Muslims account for 5% of the UK population but 20% of the sheep meat consumption

 

[Kiwi Pete]

50% of a 40kg lamb is 20kg of meat , not 15kg
Lamb is not cheap anymore

Meat and bone.
Boning the meat out you will end up losing quite a bit of the carcass weight... but still far from cheap, whichever way you look at it.

If this price holds up you will need a total ban on imports to keep imported meat out, it may not get to live in a house but there is little wrong with the cheaper stuff (unfortunately) other than it is cheaper.

I fear the Muslims may not be as patriotic when it comes to where they prefer their lamb to come from?

 

[Fossil]

50% of a 40kg lamb is 20kg of meat , not 15kg
Lamb is not cheap anymore

50% from live to deadweight. It loses another 25% after that to get to saleable meat from bones etc.

 

[Fossil]

Personally, I would be cautious at the moment of anything described as minced lamb in a curry house....

 

[trebor07]

There has been a lot of pessimistic posts on here regarding lamb prices this time next year.
What if these prices are here to stay and could they go higher?
With Southern Hemisphere lamb being largely taken by Asia and the Middle East the quantity that historically entered European markets is down.
Last year 2017 lambing weather was near perfect with good grass growth meaning lambs got going well (less loses)
This year has seen snow, torrential rain freezing cold weather, with near no grass growth loses will inevitably be high.
Taking all this into account will we see higher prices next year and could we see the £200 fat lamb being the norm?

6 years ago people said wheat would be £300/tonne when it was at £200/tonne for a few days. It hasn’t been back at £200 since either !

 

[Woolless]

One of the reasons given for the increased price of lamb this season is that consumption is up.

I really, really hope so. I had seconds today!

 

[Woolless]

The big UK processors are governed by the supermarkets who are on a mission to reduce portion size so thus they want small steaks/ chops etc, go and take a look in your local supermarket and if you want a decent size steak/ chops then you have to buy 2 steaks/ 3 chops to have more than two mouthfuls of meat!!

On the £200 fat lamb, this winter without doubt is the most costly for sheep farmers for decades and even thou the current lamb price is higher than last year it still means in real terms we are no better off than 12 months ago!

Going forward with cost of inputs rising so fast then prices of lambs need to rise pro rata or else like in NZ when the figures didn't add up sheep numbers dropped off a cliff and UK sheep numbers will suddenly drop quite rapidly as well if prices are not sustainable for farmers!

..........................

Brexit either good of bad wont affect sheep prices until 1st Jan 2021 as until then we are still tied into EU trade deals so it will be business as usual, after that it will all depend if the UK government sell out UK AG or not to protect the money markets etc and that we wont know until at least another 18 months from now.

Ref your last point: They reckon Brexit should be decided by this October to allow member states time to ratify. If they ratify!!

 

[gone up the hill]

Ref your last point: They reckon Brexit should be decided by this October to allow member states time to ratify. If they ratify!!

No that is not correct, they wont start/ aren't allowed to start talking about trade deals/ tariffs etc with non EU country's until the day we leave next March and then any of these agreed will only kick in from the 1st of Jan 2021 and until this date ( 01/01/2021 ) we will still trade under the current EU trade/ tariff deals with non EU country's! ( this was announced 2/3 weeks ago )

I think the same apply's to trade deals/ tariffs with other EU country's but not 100% sure on this.

 

[Coximus]

Well "They"always know the future but "They" never identify themselves when "they" get it wrong.

So, Simples;
Focus on your COP and efficiency as they are in your hands. FInal market price is not.

 

[NZDan]

Probably steady at a guesstimate

It certainly is a pretty buoyant feeling in sheep farming circles, for once the price of wool is hardly mentioned!

Plenty of tucker about as well, after a fairly turbulent summer for most parts of the country, quite extreme in many places.... led to a record early kill at the works, lambs a bit smaller but better rates offset that

Possibly a kilo lighter on average down south here.

But in answer to your question ewes of all ages are pretty well sought after, just put the rams out this afternoon, here.

My local area the general trend is to try and increase numbers of ewes, after 3 years of drought, but, cash flow is poor and ewes are expensive, so most folk are keeping lambs through to heavy weights and not buying ewes, numbers of hoggets mated are expected to more than double which would see 75% of all hoggets mated in my area.
My own ewes are 6kg heavier than which will see my scanning % lift by over 20. I expect many others will find the same.

 

[Kiwi Pete]

My local area the general trend is to try and increase numbers of ewes, after 3 years of drought, but, cash flow is poor and ewes are expensive, so most folk are keeping lambs through to heavy weights and not buying ewes, numbers of hoggets mated are expected to more than double which would see 75% of all hoggets mated in my area.
My own ewes are 6kg heavier than which will see my scanning % lift by over 20. I expect many others will find the same.

I definitely notice there are a ton more ram lambs down the chain than ewes.
Work dropped the 3rd chain on thursday and gearing up for extra beef kill, and will crank up to 4000/ chain this week on the two chains still running. Some big lambs though!
I wonder how many have teeth coming tbh.

 

[NZDan]

I definitely notice there are a ton more ram lambs down the chain than ewes.
Work dropped the 3rd chain on thursday and gearing up for extra beef kill, and will crank up to 4000/ chain this week on the two chains still running. Some big lambs though!
I wonder how many have teeth coming tbh.

There shouldn't be any teeth through for a few months yet, I mouthed my 2ths last week when I weighted and BCS before mating, a hand full still have there lambs teeth at 19 months old.

 

[Woolless]

No that is not correct, they wont start/ aren't allowed to start talking about trade deals/ tariffs etc with non EU country's until the day we leave next March and then any of these agreed will only kick in from the 1st of Jan 2021 and until this date ( 01/01/2021 ) we will still trade under the current EU trade/ tariff deals with non EU country's! ( this was announced 2/3 weeks ago )

I think the same apply's to trade deals/ tariffs with other EU country's but not 100% sure on this.

I was referring to Britain's relationship with the EU, which is meant to be sorted by October.

 

[Hilly]

50% of a 40kg lamb is 20kg of meat , not 15kg
Lamb is not cheap anymore

Nor should it be, ever, an animal had to die.

 

[Henarar]

Nor should it be, ever, an animal had to die.

a nice bit of lamb is not expensive there is plenty of money spent on rubbish food that is no bloody good to anyone

 

[Beowulf]

a nice bit of lamb is not expensive there is plenty of money spent on rubbish food that is no bloody good to anyone

One man's rubbish is another man's favourite. Equally one man's inexpensive is another man's unattainable.

Alienating those who don't currently eat lamb by suggesting they are buying rubbish alternatives is not a particularly good marketing strategy, in my personal opinion.

 

[Henarar]

oh well
true though

 

[Chris123]

£200 Can’t be far off now if trade carries on like this for a very heavy lamb