Anyone for a Brexit ?

[arbel]

To quote Mandy Rice-Davis; "He would say that anyway!"

Immediately the Government admits it has a plan B, its credibility for Remain is diminished. I don't know what your thoughts are about it @arbel, but I am sure that even if the Government doesn't actually yet have a plan B, the Civil Service are working one one or have got one ready. What do you think?

IMO Osborne has now so completely shot himself in the foot, never mind the 57 MP's warning to him, in effect after the horse had bolted.

Despite all the rhetoric and bad mouthing from opposite sides before elections, loosing politicians usually admit defeat and congratulate the winning team as soon as the result is known. If Leave win, one would hope Osborne would have the grace to do so, resign as Chancellor and shut up.

If Remain win, hasn't he lost so much credibility now, that he could not now ever become PM?

Indeed! You are probably right - the back room boys in the Civil Service will almost certainly be in the starting blocks.
I am very surprised that the Tories did not position themselves in a more neutral position from the commencement of the campaign. Both Cameron and Osborne could have certainly stated their preferences to Remain, but by coming out from the beginning with such a tirade against leaving the EU, they have effectively alienated the public and completely destroyed their credibility, should Brexit prevail.
Politicians are generally more prudent and like to leave an escape route, so I find their attitude rather baffling. It's almost as if we are seeing a lemming style suicide.
Although I have voted to Leave and expect some upheavals in the financial marketplace initially, I am of the conviction that these will be short term. Although some of the EU politicians and those of the member countries will try and exact some revenge, I am sure common sense pragmatism will kick in and that trade will continue without any tariff impositions being imposed by either side.
We all want to see the European nations prosper, live in peace and remain friends. Probably, our leaving will be the catalyst that causes other countries to leave. As @Old MacDonald has pointed out so many times, the aspirations of the EU were clearly stated 40 years ago. It's just that few of us read the small print.
Now, we don't like what we see and this may be the last chance in our lifetime to go our own way in the world.
After Brexit, there should be no ill feeling or vindictiveness between any of us. There will be much hard work to do and we will need willing shoulders against the wheel.

 

[JP1]

"A good friend of mine came up with a great idea. If you don't have the time/inclination to find out all the facts about the EU referendum (I don't blame you) and are possibly unsure which way to vote, perhaps knowing how other notable people are thinking could help out.

Here are a few that strongly believe the UK should remain a member of the EU:

• Governor of the Bank of England
• International Monetary Fund
• Institute for Fiscal Studies
• Confederation of British Industry
• Leaders/heads of state of every single other member of the EU
• President of the United States of America
• Eight former US Treasury Secretaries
• President of China
• Prime Minister of India
• Prime Minister of Canada
• Prime Minister of Australia
• Prime Minister of Japan
• Prime Minister of New Zealand
• The chief executives of most of the top 100 companies in the UK including Marks and Spencer, BT, Asda, Vodafone, Virgin, IBM, BMW etc.
• Kofi Annan, the former Secretary General of the United Nations
• All living former Prime Ministers of the UK (from both parties)
• Virtually all reputable and recognised economists
• The Prime Minister of the UK
• The leader of the Labour Party
• The Leader of the Liberal Democrats
• The Leader of the Green Party
• The Leader of the Scottish National Party
• The leader of Plaid Cymru
• Leader of Sinn Fein
• Martin Lewis, that money saving dude off the telly
• The Secretary General of the TUC
• Unison
• National Union of Students
• National Union of Farmers
• Stephen Hawking
• Chief Executive of the NHS
• 300 of the most prominent international historians
• Director of Europol
• David Anderson QC, Independent Reviewer of Terrorism Legislation
• Former Directors of GCHQ
• Secretary General of Nato
• Church of England
• Church in Scotland
• Church in Wales
• Friends of the Earth
• Greenpeace
• Director General of the World Trade Organisation
• WWF
• World Bank
• OECD

Here are pretty much the only notable people who think we should leave the EU:

• Boris Johnson, who probably doesn’t really care either way, but knows he’ll become Prime Minister if the country votes to leave
• A former Secretary of State for Work and Pensions who carried out a brutal regime of cuts to benefits and essential support for the poorest in society as well as the disabled and sick
• That idiot that was Education Secretary and every single teacher in the country hated with a furious passion for the damage he was doing to the education system
• Leader of UKIP
• BNP
• Britain First
• Donald Trump
• Keith Chegwin
• David Icke

So, as I said, if you can’t be bothered to look into the real facts and implications of all this in/out stuff, just pick the list that you most trust and vote that way. It really couldn’t be more simple.

And if you are unsure about leaving, don't"

Taken from Facebook. Thought it was quite good. Made me chuckle anyway.

This one made me chuckle (for a while) @Stuart J

AA Gill's piece from The Times:

"We all know what “getting our country back” means. It’s snorting a line of that most pernicious and debilitating Little English drug, nostalgia

It was the woman on Question Time that really did it for me. She was so familiar. There is someone like her in every queue, every coffee shop, outside every school in every parish council in the country. Middle-aged, middle-class, middle-brow, over-made-up, with her National Health face and weatherproof English expression of hurt righteousness, she’s Britannia’s mother-in-law. The camera closed in on her and she shouted: “All I want is my country back. Give me my country back.”

It was a heartfelt cry of real distress and the rest of the audience erupted in sympathetic applause, but I thought: “Back from what? Back from where?”

Wanting the country back is the constant mantra of all the outies. Farage slurs it, Gove insinuates it. Of course I know what they mean. We all know what they mean. They mean back from Johnny Foreigner, back from the brink, back from the future, back-to-back, back to bosky hedges and dry stone walls and country lanes and church bells and warm beer and skittles and football rattles and cheery banter and clogs on cobbles. Back to vicars-and-tarts parties and Carry On fart jokes, back to Elgar and fudge and proper weather and herbaceous borders and cars called Morris. Back to victoria sponge and 22 yards to a wicket and 15 hands to a horse and 3ft to a yard and four fingers in a Kit Kat, back to gooseberries not avocados, back to deference and respect, to make do and mend and smiling bravely and biting your lip and suffering in silence and patronising foreigners with pity.

We all know what “getting our country back” means. It’s snorting a line of the most pernicious and debilitating Little English drug, nostalgia. The warm, crumbly, honey-coloured, collective “yesterday” with its fond belief that everything was better back then, that Britain (England, really) is a worse place now than it was at some foggy point in the past where we achieved peak Blighty. It’s the knowledge that the best of us have been and gone, that nothing we can build will be as lovely as a National Trust Georgian country house, no art will be as good as a Turner, no poem as wonderful as If, no writer a touch on Shakespeare or Dickens, nothing will grow as lovely as a cottage garden, no hero greater than Nelson, no politician better than Churchill, no view more throat-catching than the White Cliffs and that we will never manufacture anything as great as a Rolls-Royce or Flying Scotsman again.

The dream of Brexit isn’t that we might be able to make a brighter, new, energetic tomorrow, it’s a desire to shuffle back to a regret-curdled inward-looking yesterday. In the Brexit fantasy, the best we can hope for is to kick out all the work-all-hours foreigners and become caretakers to our own past in this self-congratulatory island of moaning and pomposity.

And if you think that’s an exaggeration of the Brexit position, then just listen to the language they use: “We are a nation of inventors and entrepreneurs, we want to put the great back in Britain, the great engineers, the great manufacturers.” This is all the expression of a sentimental nostalgia. In the Brexiteer’s mind’s eye is the old Pathé newsreel of Donald Campbell, of John Logie Baird with his television, Barnes Wallis and his bouncing bomb, and Robert Baden-Powell inventing boy scouts in his shed.

All we need, their argument goes, is to be free of the humourless Germans and spoilsport French and all their collective liberalism and reality. There is a concomitant hope that if we manage to back out of Europe, then we’ll get back to the bowler-hatted 1950s and the Commonwealth will hold pageants, fireworks displays and beg to be back in the Queen Empress’s good books again. Then New Zealand will sacrifice a thousand lambs, Ghana will ask if it can go back to being called the Gold Coast and Britain will resume hand-making Land Rovers and top hats and Sheffield plate teapots.

There is a reason that most of the people who want to leave the EU are old while those who want to remain are young: it’s because the young aren’t infected with Bisto nostalgia. They don’t recognise half the stuff I’ve mentioned here. They’ve grown up in the EU and at worst it’s been neutral for them.

The under-thirties want to be part of things, not aloof from them. They’re about being joined-up and counted. I imagine a phrase most outies identify with is “women’s liberation has gone too far”. Everything has gone too far for them, from political correctness — well, that’s gone mad, hasn’t it? — to health and safety and gender-neutral lavatories. Those oldies, they don’t know if they’re coming or going, what with those newfangled mobile phones and kids on Tinder and Grindr. What happened to meeting Miss Joan Hunter Dunn at the tennis club? And don’t get them started on electric hand dryers, or something unrecognised in the bagging area, or Indian call centres , or the impertinent computer asking for a password that has both capitals and little letters and numbers and more than eight digits.

Brexit is the fond belief that Britain is worse now than at some point in the foggy past where we achieved peak Blighty

We listen to the Brexit lot talk about the trade deals they’re going to make with Europe after we leave, and the blithe insouciance that what they’re offering instead of EU membership is a divorce where you can still have sex with your ex. They reckon they can get out of the marriage, keep the house, not pay alimony, take the kids out of school, stop the in-laws going to the doctor, get strict with the visiting rights, but, you know, still get a shag at the weekend and, obviously, see other people on the side.

Really, that’s their best offer? That’s the plan? To swagger into Brussels with Union Jack pants on and say: “ ’Ello luv, you’re looking nice today. Would you like some?”

When the rest of us ask how that’s really going to work, leavers reply, with Terry-Thomas smirks, that “they’re going to still really fancy us, honest, they’re gagging for us. Possibly not Merkel, but the bosses of Mercedes and those French vintners and cheesemakers, they can’t get enough of old John Bull. Of course they’re going to want to go on making the free market with two backs after we’ve got the decree nisi. Makes sense, doesn’t it?”

Have no doubt, this is a divorce. It’s not just business, it’s not going to be all reason and goodwill. Like all divorces, leaving Europe would be ugly and mean and hurtful, and it would lead to a great deal of poisonous xenophobia and racism, all the niggling personal prejudice that dumped, betrayed and thwarted people are prey to. And the racism and prejudice are, of course, weak points for us. The tortuous renegotiation with lawyers and courts will be bitter and vengeful, because divorces always are and, just in passing, this sovereignty thing we’re supposed to want back so badly, like Frodo’s ring, has nothing to do with you or me. We won’t notice it coming back, because we didn’t notice not having it in the first place.

Nine out of 10 economists say ‘remain in the EU’

You won’t wake up on June 24 and think: “Oh my word, my arthritis has gone! My teeth are suddenly whiter! Magically, I seem to know how to make a soufflé and I’m buff with the power of sovereignty.” This is something only politicians care about; it makes not a jot of difference to you or me if the Supreme Court is a bunch of strangely out-of-touch old gits in wigs in Westminster or a load of strangely out-of-touch old gits without wigs in Luxembourg. What matters is that we have as many judges as possible on the side of personal freedom.

Personally, I see nothing about our legislators in the UK that makes me feel I can confidently give them more power. The more checks and balances politicians have, the better for the rest of us. You can’t have too many wise heads and different opinions. If you’re really worried about red tape, by the way, it’s not just a European problem. We’re perfectly capable of coming up with our own rules and regulations and we have no shortage of jobsworths. Red tape may be annoying, but it is also there to protect your and my family from being lied to, poisoned and cheated.

The first “X” I ever put on a voting slip was to say yes to the EU. The first referendum was when I was 20 years old. This one will be in the week of my 62nd birthday. For nearly all my adult life, there hasn’t been a day when I haven’t been pleased and proud to be part of this great collective. If you ask me for my nationality, the truth is I feel more European than anything else. I am part of this culture, this European civilisation. I can walk into any gallery on our continent and completely understand the images and the stories on the walls. These people are my people and they have been for thousands of years. I can read books on subjects from Ancient Greece to Dark Ages Scandinavia, from Renaissance Italy to 19th-century France, and I don’t need the context or the landscape explained to me. The music of Europe, from its scales and its instruments to its rhythms and religion, is my music. The Renaissance, the rococo, the Romantics, the impressionists, gothic, baroque, neoclassicism, realism, expressionism, futurism, fauvism, cubism, dada, surrealism, postmodernism and kitsch were all European movements and none of them belongs to a single nation.

There is a reason why the Chinese are making fake Italian handbags and the Italians aren’t making fake Chinese ones. This European culture, without question or argument, is the greatest, most inventive, subtle, profound, beautiful and powerful genius that was ever contrived anywhere by anyone and it belongs to us. Just look at my day job — food. The change in food culture and pleasure has been enormous since we joined the EU, and that’s no coincidence. What we eat, the ingredients, the recipes, may come from around the world, but it is the collective to and fro of European interests, expertise and imagination that has made it all so very appetising and exciting.

The restaurant was a European invention, naturally. The first one in Paris was called The London Bridge.

Culture works and grows through the constant warp and weft of creators, producers, consumers, intellectuals and instinctive lovers. You can’t dictate or legislate for it, you can just make a place that encourages it and you can truncate it. You can make it harder and more grudging, you can put up barriers and you can build walls, but why on earth would you? This collective culture, this golden civilisation grown on this continent over thousands of years, has made everything we have and everything we are, why would you not want to be part of it?

I understand that if we leave we don’t have to hand back our library ticket for European civilisation, but why would we even think about it? In fact, the only ones who would are those old, philistine scared gits. Look at them, too frightened to join in."

 

[RobFZS]

what Bob geldof of stronger in thinks of British fishermen

 

[arbel]

I found A.A. Gill's remarks about the lady on Question Time completely unacceptable, hurtful and sexist. Allison Pearson is a charming lady, who put across her viewpoints clearly and concisely. There is no excuse for Gill to have been so insulting. Of course, his copy is what sells newspapers, but his Editor should give him a very sharp rap across the knuckles. Or sack him.

 

[Stuart J]

This one made me chuckle (for a while) @Stuart J

AA Gill's piece from The Times:

"We all know what “getting our country back” means. It’s snorting a line of that most pernicious and debilitating Little English drug, nostalgia

It was the woman on Question Time that really did it for me. She was so familiar. There is someone like her in every queue, every coffee shop, outside every school in every parish council in the country. Middle-aged, middle-class, middle-brow, over-made-up, with her National Health face and weatherproof English expression of hurt righteousness, she’s Britannia’s mother-in-law. The camera closed in on her and she shouted: “All I want is my country back. Give me my country back.”

It was a heartfelt cry of real distress and the rest of the audience erupted in sympathetic applause, but I thought: “Back from what? Back from where?”

Wanting the country back is the constant mantra of all the outies. Farage slurs it, Gove insinuates it. Of course I know what they mean. We all know what they mean. They mean back from Johnny Foreigner, back from the brink, back from the future, back-to-back, back to bosky hedges and dry stone walls and country lanes and church bells and warm beer and skittles and football rattles and cheery banter and clogs on cobbles. Back to vicars-and-tarts parties and Carry On fart jokes, back to Elgar and fudge and proper weather and herbaceous borders and cars called Morris. Back to victoria sponge and 22 yards to a wicket and 15 hands to a horse and 3ft to a yard and four fingers in a Kit Kat, back to gooseberries not avocados, back to deference and respect, to make do and mend and smiling bravely and biting your lip and suffering in silence and patronising foreigners with pity.

We all know what “getting our country back” means. It’s snorting a line of the most pernicious and debilitating Little English drug, nostalgia. The warm, crumbly, honey-coloured, collective “yesterday” with its fond belief that everything was better back then, that Britain (England, really) is a worse place now than it was at some foggy point in the past where we achieved peak Blighty. It’s the knowledge that the best of us have been and gone, that nothing we can build will be as lovely as a National Trust Georgian country house, no art will be as good as a Turner, no poem as wonderful as If, no writer a touch on Shakespeare or Dickens, nothing will grow as lovely as a cottage garden, no hero greater than Nelson, no politician better than Churchill, no view more throat-catching than the White Cliffs and that we will never manufacture anything as great as a Rolls-Royce or Flying Scotsman again.

The dream of Brexit isn’t that we might be able to make a brighter, new, energetic tomorrow, it’s a desire to shuffle back to a regret-curdled inward-looking yesterday. In the Brexit fantasy, the best we can hope for is to kick out all the work-all-hours foreigners and become caretakers to our own past in this self-congratulatory island of moaning and pomposity.

And if you think that’s an exaggeration of the Brexit position, then just listen to the language they use: “We are a nation of inventors and entrepreneurs, we want to put the great back in Britain, the great engineers, the great manufacturers.” This is all the expression of a sentimental nostalgia. In the Brexiteer’s mind’s eye is the old Pathé newsreel of Donald Campbell, of John Logie Baird with his television, Barnes Wallis and his bouncing bomb, and Robert Baden-Powell inventing boy scouts in his shed.

All we need, their argument goes, is to be free of the humourless Germans and spoilsport French and all their collective liberalism and reality. There is a concomitant hope that if we manage to back out of Europe, then we’ll get back to the bowler-hatted 1950s and the Commonwealth will hold pageants, fireworks displays and beg to be back in the Queen Empress’s good books again. Then New Zealand will sacrifice a thousand lambs, Ghana will ask if it can go back to being called the Gold Coast and Britain will resume hand-making Land Rovers and top hats and Sheffield plate teapots.

There is a reason that most of the people who want to leave the EU are old while those who want to remain are young: it’s because the young aren’t infected with Bisto nostalgia. They don’t recognise half the stuff I’ve mentioned here. They’ve grown up in the EU and at worst it’s been neutral for them.

The under-thirties want to be part of things, not aloof from them. They’re about being joined-up and counted. I imagine a phrase most outies identify with is “women’s liberation has gone too far”. Everything has gone too far for them, from political correctness — well, that’s gone mad, hasn’t it? — to health and safety and gender-neutral lavatories. Those oldies, they don’t know if they’re coming or going, what with those newfangled mobile phones and kids on Tinder and Grindr. What happened to meeting Miss Joan Hunter Dunn at the tennis club? And don’t get them started on electric hand dryers, or something unrecognised in the bagging area, or Indian call centres , or the impertinent computer asking for a password that has both capitals and little letters and numbers and more than eight digits.

Brexit is the fond belief that Britain is worse now than at some point in the foggy past where we achieved peak Blighty

We listen to the Brexit lot talk about the trade deals they’re going to make with Europe after we leave, and the blithe insouciance that what they’re offering instead of EU membership is a divorce where you can still have sex with your ex. They reckon they can get out of the marriage, keep the house, not pay alimony, take the kids out of school, stop the in-laws going to the doctor, get strict with the visiting rights, but, you know, still get a shag at the weekend and, obviously, see other people on the side.

Really, that’s their best offer? That’s the plan? To swagger into Brussels with Union Jack pants on and say: “ ’Ello luv, you’re looking nice today. Would you like some?”

When the rest of us ask how that’s really going to work, leavers reply, with Terry-Thomas smirks, that “they’re going to still really fancy us, honest, they’re gagging for us. Possibly not Merkel, but the bosses of Mercedes and those French vintners and cheesemakers, they can’t get enough of old John Bull. Of course they’re going to want to go on making the free market with two backs after we’ve got the decree nisi. Makes sense, doesn’t it?”

Have no doubt, this is a divorce. It’s not just business, it’s not going to be all reason and goodwill. Like all divorces, leaving Europe would be ugly and mean and hurtful, and it would lead to a great deal of poisonous xenophobia and racism, all the niggling personal prejudice that dumped, betrayed and thwarted people are prey to. And the racism and prejudice are, of course, weak points for us. The tortuous renegotiation with lawyers and courts will be bitter and vengeful, because divorces always are and, just in passing, this sovereignty thing we’re supposed to want back so badly, like Frodo’s ring, has nothing to do with you or me. We won’t notice it coming back, because we didn’t notice not having it in the first place.

Nine out of 10 economists say ‘remain in the EU’

You won’t wake up on June 24 and think: “Oh my word, my arthritis has gone! My teeth are suddenly whiter! Magically, I seem to know how to make a soufflé and I’m buff with the power of sovereignty.” This is something only politicians care about; it makes not a jot of difference to you or me if the Supreme Court is a bunch of strangely out-of-touch old gits in wigs in Westminster or a load of strangely out-of-touch old gits without wigs in Luxembourg. What matters is that we have as many judges as possible on the side of personal freedom.

Personally, I see nothing about our legislators in the UK that makes me feel I can confidently give them more power. The more checks and balances politicians have, the better for the rest of us. You can’t have too many wise heads and different opinions. If you’re really worried about red tape, by the way, it’s not just a European problem. We’re perfectly capable of coming up with our own rules and regulations and we have no shortage of jobsworths. Red tape may be annoying, but it is also there to protect your and my family from being lied to, poisoned and cheated.

The first “X” I ever put on a voting slip was to say yes to the EU. The first referendum was when I was 20 years old. This one will be in the week of my 62nd birthday. For nearly all my adult life, there hasn’t been a day when I haven’t been pleased and proud to be part of this great collective. If you ask me for my nationality, the truth is I feel more European than anything else. I am part of this culture, this European civilisation. I can walk into any gallery on our continent and completely understand the images and the stories on the walls. These people are my people and they have been for thousands of years. I can read books on subjects from Ancient Greece to Dark Ages Scandinavia, from Renaissance Italy to 19th-century France, and I don’t need the context or the landscape explained to me. The music of Europe, from its scales and its instruments to its rhythms and religion, is my music. The Renaissance, the rococo, the Romantics, the impressionists, gothic, baroque, neoclassicism, realism, expressionism, futurism, fauvism, cubism, dada, surrealism, postmodernism and kitsch were all European movements and none of them belongs to a single nation.

There is a reason why the Chinese are making fake Italian handbags and the Italians aren’t making fake Chinese ones. This European culture, without question or argument, is the greatest, most inventive, subtle, profound, beautiful and powerful genius that was ever contrived anywhere by anyone and it belongs to us. Just look at my day job — food. The change in food culture and pleasure has been enormous since we joined the EU, and that’s no coincidence. What we eat, the ingredients, the recipes, may come from around the world, but it is the collective to and fro of European interests, expertise and imagination that has made it all so very appetising and exciting.

The restaurant was a European invention, naturally. The first one in Paris was called The London Bridge.

Culture works and grows through the constant warp and weft of creators, producers, consumers, intellectuals and instinctive lovers. You can’t dictate or legislate for it, you can just make a place that encourages it and you can truncate it. You can make it harder and more grudging, you can put up barriers and you can build walls, but why on earth would you? This collective culture, this golden civilisation grown on this continent over thousands of years, has made everything we have and everything we are, why would you not want to be part of it?

I understand that if we leave we don’t have to hand back our library ticket for European civilisation, but why would we even think about it? In fact, the only ones who would are those old, philistine scared gits. Look at them, too frightened to join in."

Brilliant article.

 

[YPhrunts]

Brilliant article.

Blinkered article.

 

[YPhrunts]

Below is the latest comment from Scotland.

Endorsed by a senior Scottish Tory commentator as accurate and understated.

You leavers won't like it.

Michael Gray: Don't expect a black-or-white decision on indyref2 following Brexit
JUNE 14TH, 2016 - 12:30 AM MICHAEL GRAY
7 COMMENTS
IN a coin-toss you get ready for either scenario. As the countdown – now just nine days – spins down towards the European Union referendum, we have to ask if that’s the case for Scotland in the case of Brexit.

Do I believe it will happen? Well, polls say it’s too close to call. What we know is the Leave camp is riding a wave of English/British patriotism, anti-establishment discontent, and misdirected frustrations over immigration. They can win.

Even if the campaign hasn’t lit the heather alight in Scotland, we should care. A Leave vote would have widespread implications that have hardly been discussed.

Talk of a second referendum on independence has spun like a broken record, and skipped a number of important steps. Instead of a rush to a re-run post-Brexit, there would be chaos at Westminster and an immediate need to assert Scottish influence on the disaffiliation process.

The UK Government would invoke the Lisbon Treaty’s Article 50. Legislation would then be passed at Westminster to begin the withdrawal process. David Cameron would surely resign. Negotiations begin. According to the treaty, the UK would formally exit the EU in two years’ time – 2018.

Meanwhile, Scotland – having voted to Remain – would face a complex political and legal juncture. How can the government reflect the will of the people when its legal position (in the Scotland Acts and EU law) is inferior to that of the UK state? Some will argue for an immediate independence referendum, but without confidence of victory that will not happen straight away.

I don’t expect a black or white decision on indyref2 following a Brexit. Nicola Sturgeon has said it will only take place “if there is clear and sustained evidence that independence has become the preferred option of a majority of the Scottish people”. That will not be the case on June 24. However, it could be by the time of a full UK-EU exit in 2018.

Throughout that two-year process, the independence movement can point to the democratic absurdity that Scotland can be removed against the will of the people. Interestingly, whisky giant Diageo and The Herald newspaper have said they will reconsider their position on independence in this scenario.

A gradual build-up to a second independence referendum suits the SNP. It strengthens their position without taking an immediate risk of putting their cause to an uncertain electorate.

There are also other ways to challenge the legitimacy of a vote for Brexit.

The Scottish Parliament could refuse legislative consent to Westminster dictating the negotiations. Similar to legal squabbles in Catalonia, this would heighten constitutional divisions where there is a clear popular mandate. Would the UK Government then “discipline” the devolved parliament with all the resulting authoritarian overtones?

Brexit would not just be a British phenomenon. It has consequences for the entire continent. Other populist movements will seek their own plebiscites – invoking fear at the heart of the EU project. In Paris, Berlin, Strasbourg and Brussels leaders will seek stability.

An immediate task for all Scottish politicians in the event of a Brexit is to take advantage of this with a diplomatic case for special treatment from EU institutions. Nicola Sturgeon should be on the phone to European capitals making it very clear that the Scottish Government will play an active role in discussing the referendum aftermath. She would have a democratic mandate, albeit not the legal recognition of a member state.

How would mainland Europe respond to Scottish requests? EU leaders would gain from undermining Westminster’s political legitimacy. How can England’s politicians attempt a hard-line negotiation strategy when its own Union is so fragile? European elites also quell domestic doubts about the EU by presenting Brexit as English exceptionalism. Scotland can play a useful role.

None of this has been discussed in public by Scottish, Westminster or EU officials. That may be because it’s fanciful, confidential, or because few have reckoned with the probability that England is heading for the exit door.

There is no White Paper to explain how the dust would settle. Another UK General Election? Street protests demanding independence? Parallel negotiations involving UK, Scottish and EU authorities? A call for a further Scotland Bill to devolve powers formerly held at an EU level?

There is little time left for voices in Scotland to continue to pour scorn on both official campaigns.

For those who advocate independence in Europe, a substantial Scottish Remain victory is required to salvage that vision. And a strategy is required for what happens if the rest of the UK puts that prospect in jeopardy.

Otherwise a referendum whose timing was unwanted, whose campaign was unloved, and whose result was unchanged by voters in Scotland could take us all into territory for which the public seems unprepared.

118 View 7 comments

Sturgeon will not push for another referendum.

 

[JP1]

Blinkered article.

It is a bit blinkered, it's over the top of course but it is quite humorous and true to type in places .........

For a bit of balance, 6 EU friends have responded to my question on FB and if the referendum was in their Country 5 would vote Leave and one is very close, all would exit the Euro and three were as passionate as many on here about wanting to be out of Schengen.

Knowing some of them I expected it to be around 50:50 as in the UK, so I was surprised. I'll keep folks posted if there are more responses as there are about 70-80 Facebook friends who are other EU Country citizens / voters

 

[Old McDonald]

With respect, we do have some say in whom ends up as being Chancellor, Home Secretary, Foreign Secretary etc, as these people are usually visible in the Shadow Cabinet at the time of General Elections. Of course, the PM might make changes during his administration, but generally these will not be strangers.
I do not know the political aspirations or leanings of the hierarchy in the EU and I certainly don't get the chance of voting for them.

With respect in return, we have no more say in who holds these appointments than we do about whom the PM chooses to be Britain's Commissioner in the EU. The PM is our representative on the European Council.

You do not vote for the cabinet members either in Westminster or Brussels. There is no difference in practical terms.

By the way, I have already voted out.

 

[YPhrunts]

http://uk.businessinsider.com/eu-referendum-reasons-why-a-brexit-is-a-good-idea-2016-6

 

[Old McDonald]

https://www.facebook.com/AntiEUNet/...528784186969/1098549720218203/?type=3&theater
Did it use the term common market on the ballot paper @Old McDonald

The wording was

DO YOU THINK THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD STAY IN THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY (THE COMMON MARKET)

YES (BOX)

NO (BOX)

 

[arbel]

With respect in return, we have no more say in who holds these appointments than we do about whom the PM chooses to be Britain's Commissioner in the EU. The PM is our representative on the European Council.

You do not vote for the cabinet members either in Westminster or Brussels. There is no difference in practical terms.

By the way, I have already voted out.

You are correct, we do not actually vote for the Cabinet ministers. But those who vote for a particular party usually have the benefit of knowing who is likely to take up those positions. Where the EU is concerned, most of us know diddly squat about the top echelon of individuals. But good man, your vote was the logical decision. The next few days should prove immensely interesting.

 

[caveman]

And if on a 70% turn out, 51% of those voting put an X against no, will that be considered a majority?

 

[5312]

And if on a 70% turn out, 51% of those voting put an X against no, will that be considered a majority?

Yes

 

[its yourself]

Indeed! You are probably right - the back room boys in the Civil Service will almost certainly be in the starting blocks.
I am very surprised that the Tories did not position themselves in a more neutral position from the commencement of the campaign. Both Cameron and Osborne could have certainly stated their preferences to Remain, but by coming out from the beginning with such a tirade against leaving the EU, they have effectively alienated the public and completely destroyed their credibility, should Brexit prevail.
Politicians are generally more prudent and like to leave an escape route, so I find their attitude rather baffling. It's almost as if we are seeing a lemming style suicide.
Although I have voted to Leave and expect some upheavals in the financial marketplace initially, I am of the conviction that these will be short term. Although some of the EU politicians and those of the member countries will try and exact some revenge, I am sure common sense pragmatism will kick in and that trade will continue without any tariff impositions being imposed by either side.
We all want to see the European nations prosper, live in peace and remain friends. Probably, our leaving will be the catalyst that causes other countries to leave. As @Old MacDonald has pointed out so many times, the aspirations of the EU were clearly stated 40 years ago. It's just that few of us read the small print.
Now, we don't like what we see and this may be the last chance in our lifetime to go our own way in the world.
After Brexit, there should be no ill feeling or vindictiveness between any of us. There will be much hard work to do and we will need willing shoulders against the wheel.

If leave win Scotland will frustrate any and all change to the Scottish Parliament.

Including motions to legalise any leave change.

As we will have voted Remain and our polls show a massive EU majority.

We were promised a no vote meant certain EU membership.

Expect every possible legal tactic to stop the leaver state taking away our rights.

Looking forward to it already.
(If the unlikely event of a leave win happens)

What you going to do then?

 

[JP1]

If leave win Scotland will frustrate any and all change to the Scottish Parliament.

Including motions to legalise any leave change.

As we will have voted Remain and our polls show a massive EU majority.

We were promised a no vote meant certain EU membership.

Expect every possible legal tactic to stop the leaver state taking away our rights.

Looking forward to it already.
(If the unlikely event of a leave win happens)

What you going to do then?

Leave Gordon Brown with you for a start I'd hope

 

[YPhrunts]

If leave win Scotland will frustrate any and all change to the Scottish Parliament.

Including motions to legalise any leave change.

As we will have voted Remain and our polls show a massive EU majority.

We were promised a no vote meant certain EU membership.

Expect every possible legal tactic to stop the leaver state taking away our rights.

Looking forward to it already.
(If the unlikely event of a leave win happens)

What you going to do then?

Well I'm not going to try and make any sense of the garbage you've just written that's for sure.

 

[Ashtree]

This Irishman who feeds three quarters of the British population says Brexit will happen. http://bloom.bg/1OoGjOU

 

[Yosemite Sam]

Well for my 2p worth. I don't think most of the people who want to vote out care to much either way about the economy and most of what we are told is scare mongering anyway. I think they have seen what is happening in the US with Donald Trump and are very fed up with the career politicians who are only pushing their own and big business's agenda's. The ruling elite have in the last 10-15 years lost the trust of the people and the people would rather make their own decision and whether right or wrong knuckle down and work through it.

Only last week on Breakfast TV they said that the majority of people registering to vote were young and they were more likely to vote to stay in. Well what a surprise, most older people are already registered to vote, so no surprise there. The next day it was announced that the website for registering voters had crashed because too many people had left it until the last minute. Well excuse me but I have seen countless adverts and mentions on the papers and both on TV and radio for months about registering to vote, so if left until the last minute and you can't get through or miss the deadline, then tough. But no the government extended this by 24hrs. Now would this had been done if they thought out voters were in the majority to register.

I'm still going to vote out and I think the in campaign are getting very worried with even more scare stories, which in my opinion weakens their case and turns more people against them. I also vote Conservative, but I think Cameron and Osborne have made themselves look extremely bad along with a lot of other ex MP's and PM's and have taken themselves down a one way street should the out campaign win.

 

[its yourself]

Leave Gordon Brown with you for a start I'd hope

He lives in the USA.