Anyone for a Brexit ?

[kernowcluck]

Have you decided yet which way you're going to vote next week @JP1?

I have sifted through this thread and read the many interesting and clearly informed comments, the personal understandings and the many suppositions for both sides. I have listened to many referendum debates and read many articles in the more trusted broadsheets. I have to say that despite all this I now have more questions than answers. This is probably because I have heard the same questions answered in so many different ways that I really do not know what to believe.

Maybe I'm being really dim but I need somebody to tell me very simply and honestly the pros and cons of staying and leaving for the common man. How is the transition period going to work and what can we expect at the end of it? What will be the sacrifices and the gains? I feel at the moment that I'm putting my neck in a noose but I don't know how long the rope is.

I spoke to my nephew this morning who is a fisherman from Padstow who said that his quota catch was 1/10 of the quota for a French fisherman fishing in the same waters and for some species was even less. This is clearly unfair and unsustainable for our industry. No wonder they are worried.

I do have concerns about leaving the EU but can we honestly say that since joining our country is a better and safer place to live in and our quality of life has improved. If we stay what will our country look like in 5,10 or 20 years time. Without appearing racist in any way will we be strangers in our own country, will the British way of life, our morals and traditions continue to be eroded away? If so is this what we want? Equally if we get out what would the main benefits be?

I want answers to simple things such as, if we leave or stay ;

Will it affect trade relations throughout the EU?

Will state pensions, wage protection, working hours et cetera be affected/protected?

Will we be able to look after the elderly and vulnerable and will there be money available to provide appropriate care?

What does the future hold for the NHS-this affects all of us?

Who is capable of leading us through this mess?

In the event of conflict would the EU countries support us?

If we don't to tighten up border control how can this small island support an endless flow of migrants when our infrastructures are already compromised?

Would the government support those migrants who are needed in certain industries and have jobs to go to?

Just some of many questions I have but have seen no consistent answers to.

 

[arbel]

Have you decided yet which way you're going to vote next week @JP1?

I have sifted through this thread and read the many interesting and clearly informed comments, the personal understandings and the many suppositions for both sides. I have listened to many referendum debates and read many articles in the more trusted broadsheets. I have to say that despite all this I now have more questions than answers. This is probably because I have heard the same questions answered in so many different ways that I really do not know what to believe.

Maybe I'm being really dim but I need somebody to tell me very simply and honestly the pros and cons of staying and leaving for the common man. How is the transition period going to work and what can we expect at the end of it? What will be the sacrifices and the gains? I feel at the moment that I'm putting my neck in a noose but I don't know how long the rope is.

I spoke to my nephew this morning who is a fisherman from Padstow who said that his quota catch was 1/10 of the quota for a French fisherman fishing in the same waters and for some species was even less. This is clearly unfair and unsustainable for our industry. No wonder they are worried.

I do have concerns about leaving the EU but can we honestly say that since joining our country is a better and safer place to live in and our quality of life has improved. If we stay what will our country look like in 5,10 or 20 years time. Without appearing racist in any way will we be strangers in our own country, will the British way of life, our morals and traditions continue to be eroded away? If so is this what we want? Equally if we get out what would the main benefits be?

I want answers to simple things such as, if we leave or stay ;

Will it affect trade relations throughout the EU?

Will state pensions, wage protection, working hours et cetera be affected/protected?

Will we be able to look after the elderly and vulnerable and will there be money available to provide appropriate care?

What does the future hold for the NHS-this affects all of us?

Who is capable of leading us through this mess?

In the event of conflict would the EU countries support us?

If we don't to tighten up border control how can this small island support an endless flow of migrants when our infrastructures are already compromised?

Would the government support those migrants who are needed in certain industries and have jobs to go to?

Just some of many questions I have but have seen no consistent answers to.

Reasonable questions to ask. But neither Brexiters or Remainers have a crystal ball. I cannot put my hand on my heart and provide any definitive proof or answers to your questions.
My decision to vote out is based on a gut feeling and instinct for survival. The EU is fast heading for troubled times and will sooner, rather than later, implode catastrophically. Best that the UK is not tied into the system at that time. My feelings are that we have a window of opportunity to go it alone and ride out the coming storms. We may end up battered and taking on water, but it will toughen us up and if we pull together we will look back on a decision to leave the EU with profound relief.
It's not easy for you to decide one way or the other possibly, without the hard facts and evidence being put in front of you. But on the basis that we all usually vote from a position of self interest, as a businessman running two companies, that exports to 15 countries worldwide and a father and grandfather who wants the best possible future for loved ones, a vote to leave the EU is the safest option.
The next few weeks and months will give us all a bumpy ride. But the ss Great Britain is a sturdy ship and can weather the storms.
My advice is to vote according to your instincts.

 

[Hilly]

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1404564916227029

 

[Hilly]

I was hearing today that alot of Spanish and Germans wanting out the EU Spanish sick of 50% unemployment and Germans sick of bailing other countries out, if we Brexit the EU will fold, although i will suspect if we remain it will prolong the agony and we will all fold together at some point, get out now while the going is still good.

 

[Hilly]

Infact the German Accountant i was talking to thinks if we brexit Germany should also, Then Germany and Britain unite !!! we would be unstoppable!

 

[Hilly]

I f we remain how long before we loose thatchers rebate ? how long before they force us to use the euro ? not long imo, im amazed dc hasnt already lost the rebate to be honest.

 

[5312]

If leave win Scotland will frustrate any and all change to the Scottish Parliament.

Including motions to legalise any leave change.

As we will have voted Remain and our polls show a massive EU majority.

We were promised a no vote meant certain EU membership.

Expect every possible legal tactic to stop the leaver state taking away our rights.

Looking forward to it already.
(If the unlikely event of a leave win happens)

What you going to do then?

If Scotland wants to be independent then good for them! I don't understand why anybody outside Scotland should be bothered about it at all and I don't understand why Westminster is so keen to keep governing someone who does not want to be governed by them.

Same with the EU, if UK wants to govern itself I don't know why others, outside, are against it.

Smaller countries usually do a better job of governing in the best interest of their people than huge, diverse countries.

Most of the richest countries per head in Europe are small ones, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Norway, Denmark etc. They all seem to do better for their citizens.

I always found it ridiculous that people say Scotland is too small to be independent.

 

[Hilly]

If Scotland wants to be independent then good for them! I don't understand why anybody outside Scotland should be bothered about it at all and I don't understand why Westminster is so keen to keep governing someone who does not want to be governed by them.

Same with the EU, if UK wants to govern itself I don't know why others, outside, are against it.

Smaller countries usually do a better job of governing in the best interest of their people than huge, diverse countries.

Most of the richest countries per head in Europe are small ones, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Norway, Denmark etc. They all seem to do better for their citizens.

I always found it ridiculous that people say Scotland is too small to be independent.

Not unlike farming, you need a certain size of business to remain a full time farmer otherwise you need parttime employment else where or lots of subsidy, Scotland want Subsidy form the EU

 

[nelly55]

The more I listen to the invote the more my cross goes on out.
Do they think we are all stupid ,its like I don't want to p!ay if I can't have my own way.
No 10 and 11 and rest of the clowns have not got a clue about the mess this country and the world is in.
If peop!e want to come here and work with a job offer before they come good,same for us going aboard.
Try staying in the states if you are English your parents may have work but you don't get a permit at 18.
My son had to have a guarantor to do a scholarship and work placement in NZ and they made sure he returned home on the due date.
Whatever the vote EU will not make things easy ,what's makes me laugh is not one of them Germany,France etc are saying well leave if you don't like it we don't mind.Reason they like power over us,like our money,and dump imports on us.
Oh and make the rules up for us to follow.
Excuse mistakes this thing keeps changing words after I typed .

 

[arbel]

If Scotland wants to be independent then good for them! I don't understand why anybody outside Scotland should be bothered about it at all and I don't understand why Westminster is so keen to keep governing someone who does not want to be governed by them.

Same with the EU, if UK wants to govern itself I don't know why others, outside, are against it.

Smaller countries usually do a better job of governing in the best interest of their people than huge, diverse countries.

Most of the richest countries per head in Europe are small ones, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Norway, Denmark etc. They all seem to do better for their citizens.

I always found it ridiculous that people say Scotland is too small to be independent.

The problem for Scotland is that it probably does not have the population sufficient to generate the tax returns needed to go it alone. With the revenues for oil so low, it just isn't viable.
Anyway, there was a majority vote in Scotland to remain part of the UK and folk up there are far too canny to blindly chance their luck with going independent and then waiting years to see if they qualify to join the EU.
This is one case where we really are better off together and we will be needing Scottish skills and endeavor to get the UK rolling again.

 

[Muck Spreader]

Have you decided yet which way you're going to vote next week @JP1?

I have sifted through this thread and read the many interesting and clearly informed comments, the personal understandings and the many suppositions for both sides. I have listened to many referendum debates and read many articles in the more trusted broadsheets. I have to say that despite all this I now have more questions than answers. This is probably because I have heard the same questions answered in so many different ways that I really do not know what to believe.

Maybe I'm being really dim but I need somebody to tell me very simply and honestly the pros and cons of staying and leaving for the common man. How is the transition period going to work and what can we expect at the end of it? What will be the sacrifices and the gains? I feel at the moment that I'm putting my neck in a noose but I don't know how long the rope is.

I spoke to my nephew this morning who is a fisherman from Padstow who said that his quota catch was 1/10 of the quota for a French fisherman fishing in the same waters and for some species was even less. This is clearly unfair and unsustainable for our industry. No wonder they are worried.

I do have concerns about leaving the EU but can we honestly say that since joining our country is a better and safer place to live in and our quality of life has improved. If we stay what will our country look like in 5,10 or 20 years time. Without appearing racist in any way will we be strangers in our own country, will the British way of life, our morals and traditions continue to be eroded away? If so is this what we want? Equally if we get out what would the main benefits be?

I want answers to simple things such as, if we leave or stay ;

Will it affect trade relations throughout the EU?

Will state pensions, wage protection, working hours et cetera be affected/protected?

Will we be able to look after the elderly and vulnerable and will there be money available to provide appropriate care?

What does the future hold for the NHS-this affects all of us?

Who is capable of leading us through this mess?

In the event of conflict would the EU countries support us?

If we don't to tighten up border control how can this small island support an endless flow of migrants when our infrastructures are already compromised?

Would the government support those migrants who are needed in certain industries and have jobs to go to?

Just some of many questions I have but have seen no consistent answers to.

Unfortunately, there is one simple answer to all your questions, "no one knows". I tend to just look at the three cornerstones of the argument:-

Economy, as I see it as a former management economist it's a no brainier to remain if you are looking at it from purely financial prospective. The risks to the country are just to great with no obvious plan or time scale.

Sovereignty, is in my eyes is a somewhat personal question and difficult to quantify. Some people set great store by it and a willing undergo a level of financial hardship to achieve a return of total accountable sovereignty to the UK. So it's down to just how you feel about it's importance. I suppose,does sovereignty = accountability or incompetence.

Immigration, I personally have the most difficulty reconciling this one. On the one hand the UK desperately needs immigrants from doctors and care workers to veg pickers in order to sustain any form of growth. But on the other hand the UK is creaking at the seams with the current influx, it's changing the character of the country and immigration is probably unsustainable at these current levels. I would have liked to see a simple work permit type system across the EU as solution for EU residents, but it's not likely. Both the EU or the UK are going to have to tackle external immigration as a matter of extreme urgency as it will certainly break the EU up if it's not brought under control..

 

[RobFZS]

Not unlike farming, you need a certain size of business to remain a full time farmer otherwise you need parttime employment else where or lots of subsidy, Scotland want Subsidy form the EU

http://stv.tv/news/politics/1357445-stv-poll-leave-campaign-gaining-ground-in-scotland/

slow rise of support for leave in scotland

 

[Honest john]

View attachment 346526

what Bob geldof of stronger in thinks of British fishermen

He's more concerned for the French & Spanish fisherman. They may have to flog some boats to the UK at fire sale prices.

I f we remain how long before we loose thatchers rebate ? how long before they force us to use the euro ? not long imo, im amazed dc hasnt already lost the rebate to be honest.

We did have to agree a large reduction to M Thatchers re bate some time ago.

 

[arbel]

Jacob Rees-Mogg - well spoken, educated guy. Experienced politician and good debater. Keeps cool when under pressure. Could make a good PM?

 

[Muck Spreader]

We did have to agree a large reduction to M Thatchers re bate some time ago.

That was inline with the reduction of the overall CAP budget which is what it's supposed to compensate the UK for.

 

[Muck Spreader]

Jacob Rees-Mogg - well spoken, educated guy. Experienced politician and good debater. Keeps cool when under pressure. Could make a good PM?

Please god, No. He's straight out of Dickens novel.

 

[Hilly]

Talks sense, and cant help his accent no more than you or me.

Please god, No. He's straight out of Dickens novel.

 

[arcobob]

Jacob Rees-Mogg - well spoken, educated guy. Experienced politician and good debater. Keeps cool when under pressure. Could make a good PM?

Totally agree. I have been an admirer for some time and I hope this accelerates him into a prominent position.

 

[Two Tone]

I've mentioned a few times that I am a follower of Charles Crawford. He writes some interesting stuff and covers quite a few points that we on TFF and this forum don't really take much notice of. He is an Outer but maybe not completely an Outer. Some of the stuff he writes I don't necessarily want to see happen. But being a retired Diplomat, I respect the fact that he knows a dam site more about the way these things work than certainly I and I suspect most of us do. Here is his latest article a to what may well happen after a Brexit. You Remainers on here might actually like the gist of it too!

Brexit v UKinEU (17): What Next?

Over at the FT (££) is an elegant piece by David Allen Green on the legal/constitutional steps that would be expected following a Brexit vote. Key point:

A vote for Brexit will not be determinative of whether the UK will leave the EU. That potential outcome comes down to the political decisions which then follow before the Article 50 notification. The policy of the government (if not of all of its ministers) is to remain in the EU. The UK government may thereby seek to put off the Article 50 notification, regardless of political pressure and conventional wisdom.

There may already be plans in place to slow things down and to put off any substantive decision until after summer. In turn, those supporting Brexit cannot simply celebrate a vote for leave as a job done — for them the real political work begins in getting the government to make the Article 50 notification as soon as possible with no further preconditions.

On the day after a vote for Brexit, the UK will still be a member state of the EU. All the legislation which gives effect to EU law will still be in place. Nothing as a matter of law changes in any way just because of a vote to Leave. What will make all the legal difference is not a decision to leave by UK voters in a non-binding advisory vote, but the decision of the prime minister on making any Article 50 notification.

I’ve posted this comment:

Note that the Cameron/EU Deal has this explosive point in the small print:

“It is understood that, should the result of the referendum in the United Kingdom be for it to leave the European Union, the set of arrangements referred to in paragraph 2 above will cease to exist”

NB that the package comes into effect ONLY IF AND WHEN the UK formally notifies the EU that it’s staying in. If the UK votes to leave in the June referendum, the whole package vanishes like a puff of smoke!

http://charlescrawford.biz/2016/02/29/brexit-v-ukineu-2/

Be all that as it may, DAG is right to remind us that pretty much anything in the way the EU works can be changed on the hoof or not as long as all member states (and grudgingly the Commission and EP) go along with the changes.

So don’t get too transfixed on the TEU texts as such, even though they in a sense do set negotiating parameters of sorts.

In this dramatic case, namely where one member state for the first time votes to Leave the EU, there will be a huge unprecedented operational responsibility on the personal shoulders of every serious EU leader to keep things calm and find a sane way through.

Some of those leaders will come under intense political pressure to offer their own voters a referendum. Some may (rightly) feel politically threatened or personally affronted by this startling new situation caused by the UK and be determined to ‘punish’ the UK pour encourager les autres (while also not overdoing it lest their own country go the same way and risk heavy punishment too). Everyone will be flailing around looking for a Plan.

Unless everything collapses around our ears, that Plan will involve having lots of dull meetings. Lots!

So D Cameron BEFORE he triggers A50 (as he has to do to maintain any last wisps of political and personal credibility) will work like a maniac to take soundings of leaders in Berlin and Paris (with some Madrid/Hague/Rome/Warsaw as well) to identify a process that steers the whole problem into those boring meetings.

The smart best-case outcome is a process that involves something like the following:

Agreement in principle that the UK will end up with a quick dirty interim EEA/EFTA type deal after lots of bickering/bargaining

Agreement in principle that EU leaders will launch a new Strategic Dialogue on the EU’s Future, with a view to big treaty changes in (say) five years’ time that recalibrate the EU and indeed Europe as a whole into two parts: Eurozone Europe (a sort of new superstate bringing together only those willing to accept its disciplines); and Free Trade Europe (a looser formation based on intergovernmental arrangements)

This outcome calms markets. It ends once and for all the ‘ever-closer union’ nonsense except for those who really now want it. It allows a framework for bringing in Turkey/Ukraine/ex-Yugos and maybe even Russia in due course. It reboots the legitimacy of the whole project by offering a Two-Sizes-Available-To-All package that each country freely chooses. It settles in a principled way the post-Cold War problem that Europe has too many countries and too few good clubs.

Above all, it allows Cameron/Merkel/Hollande/Tusk etc to show personal leadership in a way that is genuinely strategic, historic and constructive. Win-Win!

Has anyone got a better idea?

 

[YPhrunts]

Have you decided yet which way you're going to vote next week @JP1?

I have sifted through this thread and read the many interesting and clearly informed comments, the personal understandings and the many suppositions for both sides. I have listened to many referendum debates and read many articles in the more trusted broadsheets. I have to say that despite all this I now have more questions than answers. This is probably because I have heard the same questions answered in so many different ways that I really do not know what to believe.

Maybe I'm being really dim but I need somebody to tell me very simply and honestly the pros and cons of staying and leaving for the common man. How is the transition period going to work and what can we expect at the end of it? What will be the sacrifices and the gains? I feel at the moment that I'm putting my neck in a noose but I don't know how long the rope is.

I spoke to my nephew this morning who is a fisherman from Padstow who said that his quota catch was 1/10 of the quota for a French fisherman fishing in the same waters and for some species was even less. This is clearly unfair and unsustainable for our industry. No wonder they are worried.

I do have concerns about leaving the EU but can we honestly say that since joining our country is a better and safer place to live in and our quality of life has improved. If we stay what will our country look like in 5,10 or 20 years time. Without appearing racist in any way will we be strangers in our own country, will the British way of life, our morals and traditions continue to be eroded away? If so is this what we want? Equally if we get out what would the main benefits be?

I want answers to simple things such as, if we leave or stay ;

Will it affect trade relations throughout the EU?

Will state pensions, wage protection, working hours et cetera be affected/protected?

Will we be able to look after the elderly and vulnerable and will there be money available to provide appropriate care?

What does the future hold for the NHS-this affects all of us?

Who is capable of leading us through this mess?

In the event of conflict would the EU countries support us?

If we don't to tighten up border control how can this small island support an endless flow of migrants when our infrastructures are already compromised?

Would the government support those migrants who are needed in certain industries and have jobs to go to?

Just some of many questions I have but have seen no consistent answers to.

You're asking JP1 which way he's going to vote?!!!
Take a leaf out of your nephew's book and vote how you think it will affect you.
If you are a principled man you will vote on things like sovereignty and democracy.
If you are a pragmatist, and solely that, you will probably take all the scare stories on board from the leave camp and vote leave.
There is no silver bullet.