Are The Welsh Government Proposing To Reduce The Amount Of Livestock In The Country?

[1GWJ]

Am I reading this correctly?

Are the Welsh Government estimating a proposal to reduce the amount of livestock in Wales by 122,000?

Read the PDF here https://www.gov.wales/sites/default...ase-4-universal-actions-modelling-results.pdf

 

[vantage]

Are the Welsh Government estimating a proposal to reduce the amount of livestock in Wales by 122,000?

If those payment rates , it will happen by default.
Another Labour success, driving the countryside into oblivion.

 

[neilo]

Am I reading this correctly?

Are the Welsh Government estimating a proposal to reduce the amount of livestock in Wales by 122,000?

Read the PDF here https://www.gov.wales/sites/default...ase-4-universal-actions-modelling-results.pdf



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The SFS proposals are for an extra 28,000 ha of tree cover in Wales, so yes, I guess there will have to be a reduction in livestock numbers (& arable area) to make room for that.

I cant see a big take up by (especially) lowland dairy or specialist arable units somehow, unless the payments come out a LOT higher than BPS is currently, which isn't going to happen.

 

[Bald Rick]

Why would a dairy farm contract on the back of SFS? Would have thought the opposite myself if there is a will or a young farmer driving the business

Anyway, as I’ve oft said, grade 1, 2 & 3a land should continue to attract area payments as a resource to feed the nation … land above Llanfairfechan not so much

 

[neilo]

Why would a dairy farm contract on the back of SFS? Would have thought the opposite myself if there is a will or a young farmer driving the business

Anyway, as I’ve oft said, grade 1, 2 & 3a land should continue to attract area payments as a resource to feed the nation … land above Llanfairfechan not so much

An alternative view might be that Grade 1, 2 & 3a land doesn't need support, so those payments can be diverted to more needy causes? There has been a precedent set already, by the 'f*cked by the Uplands' case.

You know it makes sense.

 

[Bald Rick]

An alternative view might be that Grade 1, 2 & 3a land doesn't need support, so those payments can be diverted to more needy causes? There has been a precedent set already, by the 'f*cked by the Uplands' case.

You know it makes sense.

TBH, I really just want to be left alone.
I note that the document highlighted is a scoping study by SRUC, ADAS and some other consultancy so written by people with very limited knowledge of practical farming but a shiny degree in bollox

Personally, I expect our farm to increase cow numbers to 168

 

[neilo]

Those experts are only predicting a decline of 11% in on-farm labour because of livestock being displaced by trees, but it's alright, because we'll all just be doing a few less hours. Alongside a lower farm income, how does that equate with supporting rural communities?

"43. SLR estimates of on-farm labour suggest a decline of 11%, largely reflecting displaced livestock numbers. However, such illustrative estimates do not necessarily imply an actual reduction in on-farm labour since agricultural hours worked often exceed the nominal 1900-hour year."

 

[Bald Rick]

Those experts are only predicting a decline of 11% in on-farm labour because of livestock being displaced by trees, but it's alright, because we'll all just be doing a few less hours. Alongside a lower farm income, how does that equate with supporting rural communities?

"43. SLR estimates of on-farm labour suggest a decline of 11%, largely reflecting displaced livestock numbers. However, such illustrative estimates do not necessarily imply an actual reduction in on-farm labour since agricultural hours worked often exceed the nominal 1900-hour year."

It’s a report written to feather dust the arse of the Senedd
Its all a lot of speculation as no one can predict both how Welsh farmers will react and what will happen next year never mind 5, 10, 20 years hence

 

[hel123]

Am I reading this correctly?

Are the Welsh Government estimating a proposal to reduce the amount of livestock in Wales by 122,000?

Read the PDF here https://www.gov.wales/sites/default...ase-4-universal-actions-modelling-results.pdf



View attachment 1153535View attachment 1153536

Isn't that
122,000 cows @ 1LU or
203,333 Stores @ 0.6 LU or
813,333 Sheep @ 0.15 LU

I think I will rather carry on claiming the Bps on a sliding scale to 2029 and leave them to it

 

[neilo]

Isn't that
122,000 cows @ 1LU or
203,333 Stores @ 0.6 LU or
813,333 Sheep @ 0.15 LU

I think I will rather carry on claiming the Bps on a sliding scale to 2029 and leave them to it

Every farm will be different, which is why a blanket 10% this and 10% that is so wrong.
If you already have 10% tree cover and 10% unimproved grazing, or some steep ground where 12 years of tree payments pays better than sheep, then it could look quite attractive (depending on eventual payment rates).

If you have to devalue a big chunk of productive, flat land to plant trees, then not so much.

Personally, I’m not too upset by the habitat requirement, as happy enough to have some herbal leys in for a payment. It’s just those trees!