Combinables Price Tracker

PSQ

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Scottish Borders
what will be the2020 harvest 8 to 10 million tonnes
Last weeks Frontier meeting suggested 10 million tonnes as a mid point of trade estimates between 8 and 12 million tonnes, down from an average of 16 million tonnes with a typical UK consumption of 13 million tonnes.

What caught people’s attention was the estimated additional 161,000 ha of spring barley. If wheat reaches £180/t then a £30 discount for feed barley wouldn’t be a disaster. If wheat drops to £150 for new crop then barley doesn’t look too promising.
 

Chae1

Member
Location
Aberdeenshire
Last weeks Frontier meeting suggested 10 million tonnes as a mid point of trade estimates between 8 and 12 million tonnes, down from an average of 16 million tonnes with a typical UK consumption of 13 million tonnes.

What caught people’s attention was the estimated additional 161,000 ha of spring barley. If wheat reaches £180/t then a £30 discount for feed barley wouldn’t be a disaster. If wheat drops to £150 for new crop then barley doesn’t look too promising.
You obviously went! I never go to there meetings.

I always think these meetings are just them trying to sell things and talk the market down.
 

Clive

Staff Member
BASE UK Member
Location
Lichfield
Last weeks Frontier meeting suggested 10 million tonnes as a mid point of trade estimates between 8 and 12 million tonnes, down from an average of 16 million tonnes with a typical UK consumption of 13 million tonnes.

What caught people’s attention was the estimated additional 161,000 ha of spring barley. If wheat reaches £180/t then a £30 discount for feed barley wouldn’t be a disaster. If wheat drops to £150 for new crop then barley doesn’t look too promising.
what would be a disaster is farmers not planting cereals .............. if you are a merchant that sells fert, ag chems and trades grain

why is it we are always so keen to take advice / attend meetings run by those who exist only to make money from us ?
 

Hampton

Member
Location
Shropshire
We have had merchants tell us we can't sell Siskin as a hard group 4 since technically it's a group 2. I argued that it's still a hard wheat just slightly better quality but all I got was "but it's a group so you can't sell it as a group 4"!
But you don’t sell it as group 4? You sell it as 10.7, 180, 76 hard wheat.
 

Hindsight

Member
Location
Lincolnshire
Last weeks Frontier meeting suggested 10 million tonnes as a mid point of trade estimates between 8 and 12 million tonnes, down from an average of 16 million tonnes with a typical UK consumption of 13 million tonnes.

What caught people’s attention was the estimated additional 161,000 ha of spring barley. If wheat reaches £180/t then a £30 discount for feed barley wouldn’t be a disaster. If wheat drops to £150 for new crop then barley doesn’t look too promising.

Is the additional 161,000 hectares maybe a tad conservative? East Midlands/Yorkshire/West Midlands worst hit by no autumn planting of winter wheat.

East Midlands winter wheat and barley area usually about 360,000 hectares. Say 30% planted that leaves at todays date some 220,000 hectares looking for a spring crop. Half spring barley (110,000ha) other half mix of Spring Wheat/Oats/beans and fallow.

Yorkshire and West Midlands other two areas autumn sowings badly hit. Same there?

I have no idea really, so Frontier may well be right.

Oh, and I forgot to include the failed Oilseed Rape land. Usual planted area East Midlands 150,000 hectares. Half that possibly failed - more barley?
 
frontier give them selves plenty of leeway in public then
I hear they are nearer to the 8 million than 12 million

in 2012 and 2013 when we did 12 million there was a lot more planted around here than now
as for barley area that will depend on the price and the weather plenty of farmers (have no seed and barley price being talked down )are now looking at nocrop and an early start to rape drilling
in 2013 we could drill for most of april
but in some previous years when we have had a wet april planting anything in april was impossible
i would say the longer it stays wet in feb and march the more likely the weather dries up and april planted crops into moisture will perform as they did in 2013
 
Little wheat planted here. Most of what is looks crap. Ahdb total will be a load of rubbish I expect.
that may be the case but the market will us the figures
the same hapens in the usa every one claims the usda figures are wrong but the market follows them

come next februarry then most farmers have sold the market will make its moves based on the actual yields
 
Is the additional 161,000 hectares maybe a tad conservative? East Midlands/Yorkshire/West Midlands worst hit by no autumn planting of winter wheat.

East Midlands winter wheat and barley area usually about 360,000 hectares. Say 30% planted that leaves at todays date some 220,000 hectares looking for a spring crop. Half spring barley (110,000ha) other half mix of Spring Wheat/Oats/beans and fallow.

Yorkshire and West Midlands other two areas autumn sowings badly hit. Same there?

I have no idea really, so Frontier may well be right.

Oh, and I forgot to include the failed Oilseed Rape land. Usual planted area East Midlands 150,000 hectares. Half that possibly failed - more barley?
there could be more barley area than wheat in the uk or a lot of nocrop
 

Brisel

Member
Location
Dorset
You lot are all forgetting that there's over 2 million tonnes of old crop wheat to export before harvest 2020, we are not export competitive due to domestic prices being higher than export parity and that's before we think about barley & the huge increase in new crop soring barley sowings. Some wheat will be carried forwards into new crop - how many farmers can do that? I won't and can't even though I know my stores won't be as full this year. I'm very glad to be 90% sold on old crop and 60% sold on new crop at better levels than currently available.
 

jack6480

Member
Location
Staffs
You lot are all forgetting that there's over 2 million tonnes of old crop wheat to export before harvest 2020, we are not export competitive due to domestic prices being higher than export parity and that's before we think about barley & the huge increase in new crop soring barley sowings. Some wheat will be carried forwards into new crop - how many farmers can do that? I won't and can't even though I know my stores won't be as full this year. I'm very glad to be 90% sold on old crop and 60% sold on new crop at better levels than currently available.
if you could carry over wheat would you?
 

Jerry

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Devon
locally i think this is far worse than 2012 or 2000 now for cereals not to mention osr

even what got drilled for many will be written off now

i’m going to stick my neck out and say 6 million T / £200 harvest feed
I’ve only sold a couple loads of 2019 recently just to cover fert costs.

the next 6 months could be interesting from a marketing perspective.
 

Clive

Staff Member
BASE UK Member
Location
Lichfield
You lot are all forgetting that there's over 2 million tonnes of old crop wheat to export before harvest 2020, we are not export competitive due to domestic prices being higher than export parity and that's before we think about barley & the huge increase in new crop soring barley sowings. Some wheat will be carried forwards into new crop - how many farmers can do that? I won't and can't even though I know my stores won't be as full this year. I'm very glad to be 90% sold on old crop and 60% sold on new crop at better levels than currently available.
I also think last years production figure was optimistic

if it wasn't why are prices even at current levels given was clearly coming? most of northern Europe is in similar sh!t state as well and the USA / Canada not exactly having a great time

money is cheap - it may well be well worthwhile borrowing to carry wheat this year
 

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Project Lamport 2020

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Project Lamport, now in its seventh year, is the UK’s leading R&D trials event. The original concept aimed to develop a cultural approach to blackgrass control, but has since evolved over the years. The site now explores improving soil health, as well as a comprehensive research project that investigates the impact of cultivations, compaction and cover crops on soil structure, organic matter and microbiology.

Expect weekly updates on Project Lamport, allowing you to participate in the entire journey rather than just the final product. These updates conclude with the official Project Lamport site demonstration and a live Q&A with our experts on the 15th of July.

Read more about the different systems at...
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