Combinables Price Tracker

[crazy_bull]

It is possible that what saved our prices this year (US corn drought) could bring prices down next year..... But it's yet to be planted, and has to grow and has to yield for the USDA's figures to be right, however it is a possibility, and that would be a huge disaster for UK Ag if the corn crop performed. Surely going on national TV to spell out the potential plight that we as an industry are facing is all good for the industry, it raises awareness of where the food comes from and what affects the price etc, I see it as no bad thing. Remember that 99% (guess) of people who saw that channel 4 news have nothing to do with agriculture.

 

[Grains Guru]

The most interesting part was what the farmer said. That really highlighted the issues that are real and being faced out in the field today. As for the grain piece, it looked like scare mongering to me and what was said was a bit too casual for a balanced snapshot on the future prospects of the grain market and the impact it may have on the UK farmer. There is a long, long way to go before we have a big world crop of anything and low prices here. The French just dropped their crop today by 6% and this time last year the U.S forecast a record corn crop and look what happened to that. The world needs massive crops just to rebuild stocks to a normal level and the problems always come in the summer, although this year we have winter wheat crops struggling to come out of winter in both the U.S and the EU so even normal summer weather could be a stress on some of these crops as they are not well rooted at all. If it was to turn warm and dry in the next month or so, a lot of wheat would die due to stress. Some of these crops are in a serious state. Just look at the U.S crop ratings. Some of them are at all time lows at this stage of the season. They simply have to get better in the coming weeks.

If we see any reductions anywhere in the major producing countries on wheat or corn in the next 6 months, this market will explode as consumer coverage is next to nothing and stocks very, very low.

Above is probably a bit more of a balanced view than the one given on C4 news. The chap did'nt seem to be the most articulate of people !

 

[Clive]

The most interesting part was what the farmer said. That really highlighted the issues that are real and being faced out in the field today. As for the grain piece, it looked like scare mongering to me and what was said was a bit too casual for a balanced snapshot on the future prospects of the grain market and the impact it may have on the UK farmer. There is a long, long way to go before we have a big world crop of anything and low prices here. The French just dropped their crop today by 6% and this time last year the U.S forecast a record corn crop and look what happened to that. The world needs massive crops just to rebuild stocks to a normal level and the problems always come in the summer, although this year we have winter wheat crops struggling to come out of winter in both the U.S and the EU so even normal summer weather could be a stress on some of these crops as they are not well rooted at all. If it was to turn warm and dry in the next month or so, a lot of wheat would die due to stress. Some of these crops are in a serious state. Just look at the U.S crop ratings. Some of them are at all time lows at this stage of the season. They simply have to get better in the coming weeks.

If we see any reductions anywhere in the major producing countries on wheat or corn in the next 6 months, this market will explode as consumer coverage is next to nothing and stocks very, very low.

Above is probably a bit more of a balanced view than the one given on C4 news. The chap did'nt seem to be the most articulate of people !

I hope your right as record high prices are the only chance of profit this year for most and dare I say survival for some !

 

[crazy_bull]

The most interesting part was what the farmer said. That really highlighted the issues that are real and being faced out in the field today. As for the grain piece, it looked like scare mongering to me and what was said was a bit too casual for a balanced snapshot on the future prospects of the grain market and the impact it may have on the UK farmer. There is a long, long way to go before we have a big world crop of anything and low prices here. The French just dropped their crop today by 6% and this time last year the U.S forecast a record corn crop and look what happened to that. The world needs massive crops just to rebuild stocks to a normal level and the problems always come in the summer, although this year we have winter wheat crops struggling to come out of winter in both the U.S and the EU so even normal summer weather could be a stress on some of these crops as they are not well rooted at all. If it was to turn warm and dry in the next month or so, a lot of wheat would die due to stress. Some of these crops are in a serious state. Just look at the U.S crop ratings. Some of them are at all time lows at this stage of the season. They simply have to get better in the coming weeks.

If we see any reductions anywhere in the major producing countries on wheat or corn in the next 6 months, this market will explode as consumer coverage is next to nothing and stocks very, very low.

Above is probably a bit more of a balanced view than the one given on C4 news. The chap did'nt seem to be the most articulate of people !

You've got to remember the grain piece was not aimed at farmers so it needed to be paraphrased and almost bullet point for the masses to understand, this was not a piece at some farming/ marketing conference. He also said it was far from definite that it was going to happen but highlighted to the general public what could happen, much better to be aware of what could happen as Apposed to stick ones head in the sand and assuming everything will be ok.

 

[Grain Buyer]

That lot are either blowing their own trumpet or talking prices down. I would say the outlook for next year's grain prices is far from gloomy.

Ha, had you down as a Gleadalls or ex Gleadalls man.

 

[Grains Guru]

One day you will get something right. !

I think our friend Crazy Bull here might have something to do with Gleadalls.

 

[yellow belly]

weather weather weather

the three factor to consider

the usda are always coming out with reports that give the market a shock nothing new there they will soon get a reputation for it like the Chinese buying big tonnages one week then cancelling them and rebuying or giving statements out that say they have a bumper crop then buying lots of grain

most of the 2013 grain crops area still has to be planted hundreds of millions of acres predictions have to be tempered by who is doing the predicting and how much do they really know compared with what they think they know

the market bears will push the view that there are record acres producing an above average crop .the weather will be the deciding factor so predict the weather(impossible ) and you know the answer

the bulls will push the views that the drought in the usa still exists the crop will be late and the early planted maize in the south has been hammered by frost so no august harvested grain maize a lot got harvested in august 2012
the price of maize in the in many places in usa is above futures price normally below

wheat rating are low due to weather and their weather is cold like northern Europe

in 2008 when we had high prices because of low 2007 crop the production of wheat hit a record from the 2008 harvest
in april 2008 every production area of the word was reporting week after week that the crops looked good or better I do not here that from any where there are crop problems in most region non is better than average

for the 2013 prices everything is still to be decided by the 2013 weather and forecasting the weather more than 2 week is an impossability

 

[warksfarmer]

Just been offered £201 for feed wheat April 13 collection.

 

[Clive]

Just been offered £201 for feed wheat April 13 collection.

Who was that with Lee ? I was offered £200 may /June today but did nothing

 

[warksfarmer]

Who was that with Lee ? I was offered £200 may /June today but did nothing

Criddle Grain.

 

[Clive]

Criddle Grain.

Are they good to pay ? Never heard of them ?? I worry about small grain traders, too many horror stories in years gone by

 

[warksfarmer]

Are they good to pay ? Never heard of them ?? I worry about small grain traders, too many horror stories in years gone by

Criddle bought Wrekin Grain.

 

[Clive]

Criddle bought Wrekin Grain.

Ah, makes sense now !

 

[Clive]

So where do we think old crop prices are going now ?

Sell or hold what I have left to market from harvest 2012 ?

 

[franklin]

Sell. I sold my milling wheat in November and dont think the price has got more than a fiver above it for the rest of the season. If it is 72kg, I would be buying the crap that cant go to Ensus now and blending it to 66kg.

 

[Will Blackburn]

Criddle bought Wrekin Grain.

Thought Wynnstay bought Wrekin Grain?

 

[Heathland]

Criddle&co part of the Billington group of companies family owned for 150 years.Criddle's headoffice based in Cunard Building
Liverpool. I've been dealing with them for a about 4-5 Years now they buy all my wheat,it nearly always goes into there own
mills.Nice dealing with end user.

 

[DRC]

Thought Wynnstay bought Wrekin Grain?

Yes that's right,all under the Grainlink name now.
Criddle are ok though,head office in Liverpool part of CARRS BILLINGTON.

 

[colhonk]

Was offered 213 for my feed wheat, all well over spec,but that was 3 months ago, turned it down, boo hoo hoo , what an idiot, offered 203 for next month now.

 

[franklin]

£203 isnt exactly bad money though it is?