Combinables Price Tracker

[J 1177]

Think a rise should be coming soon.

USDA misinformation going to catch up on them soon.

World closing stocks of maize significantly lower than their previous estimates and that’s before this years US harvest which everyone apart from them accepted long ago would be much lower than normal.

Already thinking I made a mistake doing some wheat at £138 a week ago

I have averaged £137 on 4 loads so your a quid better off per ton than me

 

[limestone brash]

£336 for rape ???

 

[Clive]

Think a rise should be coming soon.

USDA misinformation going to catch up on them soon.

World closing stocks of maize significantly lower than their previous estimates and that’s before this years US harvest which everyone apart from them accepted long ago would be much lower than normal.

Already thinking I made a mistake doing some wheat at £138 a week ago

markets have defied sense for a while imo

I think you are right

brexit / currency clouds everything though

 

[Clive]

Most of twitter and the NFU seemed certain of 60-80% being wiped off prices yesterday as no deal is certain ......

None where going to short the £150 may 21 futures though !!!!

project fear doom mongers !!!!

 

[SilliamWhale]

The USDA don't have a history of being way off though do they?

 

[fudge]

Isn't that because markets think the chances of "no deal" are vanishingly small?

Most of twitter and the NFU seemed certain of 60-80% being wiped off prices yesterday as no deal is certain ......

None where going to short the £150 may 21 futures though !!!!

project fear doom mongers !!!!

 

[PSQ]

Think a rise should be coming soon.

USDA misinformation going to catch up on them soon.

Good point! - Today is USDA Crop Production Report day! ????

Mark my words: at 5pm (BST) we corner the futures market...

 

[Green oak]

Presumably there’s a great deal of wheat/barley sold before the 31st October. Boats are lining up at ports. But no trucks available.

 

[PSQ]

The USDA don't have a history of being way off though do they?

Pretty much every year except 2012: they usually admit their 'error' after the next years crop is harvested by knocking off a few million bushels from their old crop 'estimates' of 'high yields' and 'record' carry over , by which time the (low priced) crop is only a distant memory... ?

Funnily enough they did it again last week, reducing the carry over from last year BUT *still refusing to acknowledge that some of this years crop is so late that it won't be able to reach maturity and harvest*.

*Edit: Up to 12" of snow forecast in the Dakotas this weekend .

 

[Chae1]

Look at the snow in Canada/north America.

This is bound to affect prices? NSW looks buggered too looking at farmer roys place.

 

[Clive]

The USDA don't have a history of being way off though do they?

they have a track record of utter rubbish Will - I swear they juts make it up and go to the pub a lot!

 

[David.]

Think a rise should be coming soon.

USDA misinformation going to catch up on them soon.

World closing stocks of maize significantly lower than their previous estimates and that’s before this years US harvest which everyone apart from them accepted long ago would be much lower than normal.

Already thinking I made a mistake doing some wheat at £138 a week ago

I'd like to propose a vote of thanks.
Usually me breaks the deadlock to take one for the team.

 

[Renaultman]

they have a track record of utter rubbish Will - I swear they juts make it up and go to the pub a lot!

How do I get a job there?

 

[teslacoils]

Presumably there’s a great deal of wheat/barley sold before the 31st October. Boats are lining up at ports. But no trucks available.

Every port is rammed. Boats everywhere since harvest. Never had so many calls after wheat.

 

[PSQ]

USDA misinformation going to catch up on them soon.

They've just released the 'Crop Production Estimates' report.

Despite the May floods, late June planting, massive area left unplanted (some estimates near 10 million acres), insufficient warmth to reach maturity and, finally frost and snow to kill the plants before the cob is fit to harvest, the USDA are saying that yield predictions "are down 4% from last year", with the area up compared with 2018.

 

[Baling Hay]

They've just released the 'Crop Production Estimates' report.

Despite the May floods, late June planting, massive area left unplanted (some estimates near 10 million acres), insufficient warmth to reach maturity and, finally frost and snow to kill the plants before the cob is fit to harvest, the USDA are saying that yield predictions "are down 4% from last year", with the area up compared with 2018.

Yeah but a lot of acres which were destined for soybeans were planted with corn instead, soybean acreage is way down.

 

[teslacoils]

Do they still include "prevent plant" acreages?

 

[Flat 10]

Presumably there’s a great deal of wheat/barley sold before the 31st October. Boats are lining up at ports. But no trucks available.

And today I loaded a lorry for a major merchant (in their own colours) who's driver said he had tipped his last load for the day at 10.30am yesterday and the office couldn't find anything for him to do. He asked me to load yesterday (for a mid morning slot today) but i was miles away trying to drill so we compromised on 7am today but he admitted likely to have to wait at tip until designated time. No surprise that they are still moving Sep contracts is it? I know this is only one example but its clearly not good.

 

[fudge]

And today I loaded a lorry for a major merchant (in their own colours) who's driver said he had tipped his last load for the day at 10.30am yesterday and the office couldn't find anything for him to do. He asked me to load yesterday (for a mid morning slot today) but i was miles away trying to drill so we compromised on 7am today but he admitted likely to have to wait at tip until designated time. No surprise that they are still moving Sep contracts is it? I know this is only one example but its clearly not good.

Price is the element you haven’t mentioned. ADM are constantly calling for wheat to export, if one sells at today’s prices one can expect the haulier to be in touch promptly. Ones more expensive contracts, sold earlier can wait. It says so in the contract!

 

[Brisel]

And today I loaded a lorry for a major merchant (in their own colours) who's driver said he had tipped his last load for the day at 10.30am yesterday and the office couldn't find anything for him to do. He asked me to load yesterday (for a mid morning slot today) but i was miles away trying to drill so we compromised on 7am today but he admitted likely to have to wait at tip until designated time. No surprise that they are still moving Sep contracts is it? I know this is only one example but its clearly not good.

That surprises me. Boats are in demurrage for thousands of Euros/day down here because they can't get trucks to load them fast enough. I'd say the transport manager isn't being ambitious enough to keep the wheels turning, or they have carefully worked out that it is cheaper to park up than go miles on a profit margin thin enough to be wiped out by anything more than a half hour wait at the tip.