Dilemma !

[som farmer]

we don't fully realise, how super markets are actually run, control is with accountant nerds, sat behind a computer, they probably know, or want to know, sweet nothing about farming, all they care about, are figures, and profit. Any upward movement on product, is basically, if they HAVE to pay more to obtain it, which is usually a shortage. This applies to all products. Forget what headline news says, price is controlled by those nerds.
As a farmer, pretty well as far back as i can remember, we have moaned about price with good reason. But, food supply, is political as well, which is the reason for subs, to compensate, for lower prices, laugh, and also the reason, for grants, for technology, and environment, to help us continue to produce food, we can compare prices from 25 years back, basically same today, but yield has increased, the result, more product, at same price ! But, milk, price cut, we moan, but still produce the milk, to those faceless nerds, this computes as, we lower price, milk keeps coming, lower again, and again, and it still comes. What would we think, if the boot was on the other foot ? The only way, to raise prices, is to produce less, and i cannot see that happening.

 

[Bald Rick]

Why bother when they just charge the producer for haulage?

They have enough on without a Scottish branch.

I struggle to see why? limited milk field, and I would think not a cheap place to produce milk - powder market is a rollercoaster so building a factory where 30ppl is probably what's needed to make the job work seems like a mad move - build where there is an abundance of spring milk surely?

As I said, it was just a rumour I heard but with entrepreneurs you never know. They may have spotted an opportunity - plus, no doubt, possible generous Scottish Government grants as SG must be worried about other milk processors pulling out.

 

[bigw]

There has been a lot of herds dispersed up in north east Scotland after Muller gave notice to producers, not much milk there to process now sadly. Scotland needs more processing capacity otherwise production will keep moving south.

 

[Blue.]

As I said, it was just a rumour I heard but with entrepreneurs you never know. They may have spotted an opportunity - plus, no doubt, possible generous Scottish Government grants as SG must be worried about other milk processors pulling out.

It won’t be Yew Tree who do it,Carl isn’t daft enough.

 

[bigw]

It won’t be Yew Tree who do it,Carl isn’t daft enough.

They are going to ship milk south but not sure how much volume yew tree will be picking up @Alex72

 

[buffalo_soldier]

They could mop the job up north of the border in theory.
They are getting milk now despite charging a fair whack for haulage. So remove or reduce that haulage cost and the recruitment phone line won't stop ringing.


Edit, then again that's what first milk thought a few years back

 

[coomoo]

What contract suits the milk and calving pattern you produce or are they all white water contracts?

 

[Farmer Fin]

As I said, it was just a rumour I heard but with entrepreneurs you never know. They may have spotted an opportunity - plus, no doubt, possible generous Scottish Government grants as SG must be worried about other milk processors pulling out.

After muller have notice 12 months ago a few farmers got together to try and find a home for the milk. They looked at setting up their own creamery and at supplying yew tree but neither were feasible realistically. Most of the herds have gone or are about to go.

 

[Kiss]

they already draw a lot of milk out of Scotland I’m pretty sure they would wait and see regards export tariffs before serious investment even at home to start

 

[endeavour]

This is the situation found by many farmers in areas remote from factory or population I do not envy your choice but would caution you to consider the actions of all possible buyers over recent time , conclusion yew will probably come to will then only have time to prove itself . Be aware that you understand terms in any contract you enter into, corporate detritus lives on farmers backs.

 

[westwards]

Heard a rumour that someone may be able to confirm that Yewtree are looking at putting a factory in at Aberdeen

There was talk in the spring, but producers who were on Tesco contracts would not join and it was not viable without all the milk, not sure if that is 100% correct @Alex72
But there are a lot of Aberdeenshire cows going through Carlisle market in last few months.

 

[Tarw Coch]

There was talk in the spring, but producers who were on Tesco contracts would not join and it was not viable without all the milk, not sure if that is 100% correct @Alex72
But there are a lot of Aberdeenshire cows going through Carlisle market in last few months.

With the difference in Tesco price and yew tree price that’s not a surprise.
But if the plug is pulled on their Tesco contact where does that leave them.

 

[jackrussell101]

The only problem is this statement has been repeated most years for the last 20 years.
However here we are discussing the risk of entering a period of economic uncertainty with the significant possibility of a surplus of milk.

As farmers I certainly dont think we have ever sent processors and retailers a signal that production might drop below a level that they would struggle to cope and I dont think we ever will.

The big difference in recent years compared to the last 20 is the damage that is being done to the non-aligned dairy farmers bank accounts. I would imagine a Freshways producer, and many other farmers who supply unscrupulous buyers, have had 2 horrendous financial years in the last 5 years, 2016 and 2020. This can only carry on for so long. Whereas Muller have chosen to protect their most favoured precious geographical milk fields with the use of gold plated aligned contracts that protect their farmers from low milk prices.

I think 2 major trends in the dairy sector over the next 5 years will be the major increase in milk supply coming from the aligned supermarket pools, and the major consolidation and reduction in milk supply coming from the non-aligned pools.

 

[harrysmith]

The big difference in recent years compared to the last 20 is the damage that is being done to the non-aligned dairy farmers bank accounts. I would imagine a Freshways producer, and many other farmers who supply unscrupulous buyers, have had 2 horrendous financial years in the last 5 years, 2016 and 2020. This can only carry on for so long. Whereas Muller have chosen to protect their most favoured precious geographical milk fields with the use of gold plated aligned contracts that protect their farmers from low milk prices.

I think 2 major trends in the dairy sector over the next 5 years will be the major increase in milk supply coming from the aligned supermarket pools, and the major consolidation and reduction in milk supply coming from the non-aligned pools.

thats depressing for us other half !

 

[som farmer]

The big difference in recent years compared to the last 20 is the damage that is being done to the non-aligned dairy farmers bank accounts. I would imagine a Freshways producer, and many other farmers who supply unscrupulous buyers, have had 2 horrendous financial years in the last 5 years, 2016 and 2020. This can only carry on for so long. Whereas Muller have chosen to protect their most favoured precious geographical milk fields with the use of gold plated aligned contracts that protect their farmers from low milk prices.

I think 2 major trends in the dairy sector over the next 5 years will be the major increase in milk supply coming from the aligned supermarket pools, and the major consolidation and reduction in milk supply coming from the non-aligned pools.
[/QUOTE

while i agree with you, there are 2 extra things to throw in, covid, and brexit. While undoubted, s/mkts have had a very profitable covid experience, they must have realised, 'distribution, and supply' caused some considerable difficulties, and to keep their customers content, they are probably looking at that 'supply' line, so, as JR says, protection will occur, hopefully by better payment ! Brexit, will/may have an effect on supply chain/price, the will it/ won't it of today, will be solid, in the very near future, and again, s/mkts will be planning for that.
I know of 1 farm, and there must be others, that selling for the extra money/not to the less reputable buyers, has led to 3 disasters, with companies folding, i class that, as stupidity. I think, the major buyers, do not care about farmers finances, why should they ? We have moaned, complained, for so many years, but, the milk keeps arriving. What does that suggest to them ? Where we farm, we are lucky enough to have several buyers, others do not, and where a corporate decision is made, to 'leave' an area, it is based on the plants, actual economics, whether that is ageing plant, or insufficient milk supply, to them, it's simply business. The result, of course, to farmers is devastating, in most cases, milk would have to be transported away, at who's cost ?
The end result, will be clusters of dairy farms, around a factory, reducing transport etc. Any producer away from that scenario, will be paid, by demand, and logistics of supply, also, farms that don't meet with their buyers needs, will simply be sidelined.
The result, as JR said, a processor, with a close dedicated supply, produced to their requirements, either quality or standards, what more could they want ? Price paid, is a different subject, and that will be controlled, by supply, and, that supply, it is the only influence farmers have, effecting price, production, less means more, more means less.

 

[jackrussell101]

thats depressing for us other half !

It is, and it is only my opinion but I'm struggling to see how else it will pan out, saying this as a non-aligned dairy farmer myself.

Obviously it is a generalised opinion of the overall milk market. Some non-aligned farmers will be able to compete, but they will need some of the following; excellent technical efficiency, economies of scale, an already established wealthy/strong financial position, favourable climate or farm diversification income.