Future trends

Raider112

Member
For the industry it is going to be death by a thousand cuts I'm afraid. Give it ten years and probably most animal production will be commercially unviable given that forecast future trends become only half fulfilled. It only takes a small decrease in underlying demand to make a big difference to commodity prices and profits are only marginal on most farms today.
Yes, the better land may well be converted to arable, but much of the new alternative products are likely to contain very little farm crop. Environmental schemes are likely to be significant income generators for more part time farmers in future.
Sure I read somewhere that eggs, meat and dairy consumption worldwide went up by 60 odd % in 20 years from the mid 90's, it's going to take a hell of a change to even halt that never mind reverse it.
 

DaveGrohl

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Cumbria
Jeez Hugh! You got any good news? The problem with traditional foods is just that; they aren’t trendy and modern enough. Modern man seems to want something different and new all the time. Bit like cars really!! Lol. Seriously it’s hard to answer the supposed drive for alternative foods as it’s seen as defending something which is deemed out of date. The modern world wants “new” and different all the time now. I for one will continue to eat meat all be it In moderation
And all the while this profit driven processed vegan food frenzy is happening nutritional science is finally moving in the opposite direction back towards the foods that everyone used to eat. It's a huge supertanker and is taking some turning but will ultimately lead to the demise of the vegan dream. Decades though sadly.
 

Ffermer Bach

Member
Livestock Farmer
I have just read an article in the Telegraph (on line) talking about vitamin D and how important it is, mainly from the sun but also contained in food, eggs, oily fish but the type of vitamin D from plant based sources is not absorbed by the body, so being vegan is in biological terms unsustainable, the hubris of humans to think we are above biology!
 

DrWazzock

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
I have just read an article in the Telegraph (on line) talking about vitamin D and how important it is, mainly from the sun but also contained in food, eggs, oily fish but the type of vitamin D from plant based sources is not absorbed by the body, so being vegan is in biological terms unsustainable, the hubris of humans to think we are above biology!
That gets me every time. Denial of our basic biological needs as omnivores to fit some kind of new age religious sentimentalist crap. No appreciation that human eating of meat actually fits into an ecosystem rather than destroys it. The notion that if we don’t use nasty pesticides then somehow Mother Nature will acknowledge this and be good to us. No she won’t, she will walk all over us leave us for dead if we don’t keep our wits about us, but nobody seems to realise that.
 

milkloss

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
East Sussex
In what way?

the last time the NFU were talking that kind of thing the value of commodities fell through the floor. If basic commodities see any increase in value there are many,many thousands of acres of ground around the world that could/would come into production. Our small amount of high quality assured produce isn’t really what the world wants nor can afford.
 

Cowabunga

Member
Location
Ceredigion,Wales
In what way?
The first world’s population is actually decreasing and is only because of those already born that the world population will continue to grow for a few decades yet.
The real population growth is going to be in Africa and you and I both cannot possibly grow food that people in that region will be able to afford to afford. They will need to grow their own.
The only possibility for growth in the demand for food in the Western World is if we let millions of African immigrants in to our countries.
 

hendrebc

Member
Livestock Farmer
Heard on an American business podcast yesterday that 84% of vegans in America are back to eating meat within a year.
I don't think we have anything much to worry about just yet. They will all get sickly and be craving proper protein soon enough our bodies can't function without it in most people. People have evolved to eat animal protein and one generation of misplaced idealism can't change that. We just need to produce it as ethically and environmentally friendly as possible.
Looking likely we will eventually get some sort of carbon credits for sequestering carbon into our soils as well. Can't do that without livestock.
 
Location
Cleveland
I think we saw during the lockdown how vegan food sales were going....

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DaveGrohl

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Cumbria
Heard on an American business podcast yesterday that 84% of vegans in America are back to eating meat within a year.
I don't think we have anything much to worry about just yet. They will all get sickly and be craving proper protein soon enough our bodies can't function without it in most people. People have evolved to eat animal protein and one generation of misplaced idealism can't change that. We just need to produce it as ethically and environmentally friendly as possible.
Looking likely we will eventually get some sort of carbon credits for sequestering carbon into our soils as well. Can't do that without livestock.
Indeed, and a big part of why they revert to meat is that it isn't possible to be healthy without a lot of supplementation, but most trying it won't have a clue about this, merely hearing the (wrong) yadaya about lots of vegan food being protein rich. Also it's easy to get fat eating vegan in search of the vital nutrients that are needed because most vegan foods are low quality when it comes to these, so you have to eat a lot of calories in the form of starch to get to them. And starch is killing westerners. I've said before there are an awful lot of angry ex-vegans out there, they may well be a force for good ultimately.
 

robs1

Member
One of my granddaughters is dairy intolerant so when we take her out we have to be careful, some of it is fine but if anyone thinks vegan cheese will ever be popular they are deluded, its sh!t in fact it's worse than sh!t, we know a vegan family and none of them will eat it.
Plenty of mouths to feed the biggest thing the uk farming industry needs to do is to debunk the climate damage crap, few people go vegan because they prefer it to meat/dairy but because they THINK it's better for the planet, that is a dangerous situation for farming to allow to become engrained thinking
 

DaveGrohl

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Cumbria
One of my granddaughters is dairy intolerant so when we take her out we have to be careful, some of it is fine but if anyone thinks vegan cheese will ever be popular they are deluded, its sh!t in fact it's worse than sh!t, we know a vegan family and none of them will eat it.
Plenty of mouths to feed the biggest thing the uk farming industry needs to do is to debunk the climate damage crap, few people go vegan because they prefer it to meat/dairy but because they THINK it's better for the planet, that is a dangerous situation for farming to allow to become engrained thinking
Totally, and that's pretty much what this thread and the NFU thread is about. I am really worried that the job is getting harder because I heard Sir D Att say eating less meat is crucial for the planet. Christ, when HE says that we have a real fight on our hands. The point remains though that the actual facts back us up but the media battleground is vicious. There are some real quality fims being made now though about nutrition, regen farming etc so at least SOME people are actually starting to fight back properly.
 

hendrebc

Member
Livestock Farmer
One of my granddaughters is dairy intolerant so when we take her out we have to be careful, some of it is fine but if anyone thinks vegan cheese will ever be popular they are deluded, its sh!t in fact it's worse than sh!t, we know a vegan family and none of them will eat it.
Plenty of mouths to feed the biggest thing the uk farming industry needs to do is to debunk the climate damage crap, few people go vegan because they prefer it to meat/dairy but because they THINK it's better for the planet, that is a dangerous situation for farming to allow to become engrained thinking
I haven't read it all but aren't the national beef association saying there should be some sort of tax on beef finished over 27 months. How f**king backwards is that! Cattle finished on grass can easily take that long or more to finish and the ones that do are the ones that are much more likely to be the ones kinder to the planet by sequestering carbon while they graze. Intensive grain fed cattle are the ones are the ones that will be emitting methane that doesn't get absorbed by bugs in the soil and grass and need carbon burning machinery to harvest sndtb bring them their food. If I was a member I wouldn't be renewing my membership over that and I would be telling them why. But I haven't read about it properly just something I saw on twitter so look it up before you quote me on it.
 

hendrebc

Member
Livestock Farmer
I haven't read it all but aren't the national beef association saying there should be some sort of tax on beef finished over 27 months. How fudgeing backwards is that! Cattle finished on grass can easily take that long or more to finish and the ones that do are the ones that are much more likely to be the ones kinder to the planet by sequestering carbon while they graze. Intensive grain fed cattle are the ones are the ones that will be emitting methane that doesn't get absorbed by bugs in the soil and grass and need carbon burning machinery to harvest sndtb bring them their food. If I was a member I wouldn't be renewing my membership over that and I would be telling them why. But I haven't read about it properly just something I saw on twitter so look it up before you quote me on it.
I just saw @Old Tip has started a thread on this. Read the first page and the feeling was much the same as what I thought.
 

Gong Farmer

Member
BASIS
Location
S E Glos

Y Fan Wen

Member
Location
N W Snowdonia
I reckon Cowabunga has read this already but I'll just draw your attention to it again.

'By 2030, the number of cows in the U.S. will have fallen by 50% and the cattle farming industry will be all but bankrupt. All other livestock industries will suffer a similar fate, while the knock-on effects for crop farmers and businesses throughout the value chain will be severe.
Rethinking Food and Agriculture shows how the modern food disruption, made possible by rapid advances in precision biology and an entirely new model of production we call Food-as-Software, will have profound implications not just for the industrial agriculture industry, but for the wider economy, society, and the environment.'

The full report emphasises how the whole house of cards we have will be dismantled just by the loss in value of the 5th quarter.
Reading the posts above, I have the impression that most think it is a shift from animal to plant. It is actually a shift from animal to retort.
Forget vegan think distillery.
 

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