Is it going to rain again or is this 1976 mark 2??

[DrWazzock]

Sooo . . .

if it doesn’t rain for two weeks it’s a disaster & the worst drought ever

if it rains for a week it’s a disaster & floods & everyone wants to put in drains & get rid of the water









doesn’t sound like there is much resilience in the system . . .

There doesn't have to be skeletons strewn across the paddock and vultures circling for it to be a financial crisis on marginal land here, and its the bank balance that matters, not what it looks like outside or what kind of angle you put on it. If things carry on as they are this will be the third year in a row when too much rain in the winter, lack of rain in the spring and too much rain at harvest knocks upwards of the equivalent of a ton per acre off our yields in terms of raw yield, loss of quality or increased expenses. That ton per acre is what we live on, the rest covers the cost of growing it and overheads and we have done a lot to get those costs down with direct drilling where we can, moisture conservation etc. On top of that we have a government that couldn't care less about supporting crop production though they can find money for just about everything else. Never much help to build reservoir or anything else of real use to even out water supply, just regulatory obstacles in your path and prioritisation of the water supply for the leisure and tourism industry, for the golf course and racecourse.
So the upshot for me is if things don't pay this year then we are not going to subsidise the loss again from capital or from working off farm. The crop production side will be closed down or let out before we hit the financial buffers though I can't see many takers. Others might wish to burn capital on marginal land, we will not be doing that. Its financially unsustainable and makes no sense. The fact people continue to bid sky high prices for FBT's and pay £10k per acre for agricultural land is absolute madness in my view and won't end well if these climate extremes continue .... but what the heck do I know?

 

[teslacoils]

We have one of the most consistent and average climates. That's why large variation is commented on. 2" a month, every month is, if not the norm, then the long term averages. So to get a wet October, November, December, then close to 6" in four weeks in January. For it to then stop raining on valentine's for 11 weeks, would be unusual.

The variability of weather is expected. Less expected is the trend to be locked in - so the wet season / dry season we've had for the last few years.

Land is expensive in part for the consistency of results.

 

[jerseycowsman]

Sooo . . .

if it doesn’t rain for two weeks it’s a disaster & the worst drought ever

if it rains for a week it’s a disaster & floods & everyone wants to put in drains & get rid of the water









doesn’t sound like there is much resilience in the system . . .

It’s fine to have 2 months of dry weather in July/August, when everything is grown etc.
But 2 months of dry and very cold weather in spring is a different story. But of course you know better

 

[Kiwi Pete]

The issue is for 6months of the year rain is a PIA

Being underwater is always out of fashion

even more of a PIA is when everywhere else is getting wet, except you, that's the definition of a bitch I think I read

 

[DrWazzock]

Undoubtedly, if it doesn’t rain till harvest a lot of the better land in this county will still produce a good average yields. It’s not a widespread problem.
It’s the more difficult land that will feel the heat first. We have had yields of 1.5 to 2 tons per acre of winter wheat since harvest 2018 partly due to poor rooting in wet winters, mostly due to burn out in mid June and partly due to quality issues with wet harvests. It hasn’t really been worth drilling it. Spring barley has done much better, out yielding the wheat and costing much less to grow especially where zerotilled with little consequential reduction in yield. It seems much more resilient to lack of rainfall and direct drilled spring barley looks like a low cost low risk way forward here. Maybe that and grass is the way forward. Everything else just isn’t resilient enough and can lose you a lot of money.

 

[DrWazzock]

And then we hear of stuff like agro forestry, growing crops between aisles of trees. Well last June even my apple trees wilted and sucked every last bit of moisture out of the surrounding grass that it burnt off. Trees suck up huge amount of water in the summer and nothing in the winter. Yet everybody thinks they are a good thing.
We undoubtedly need to become more resilient to extremes but it might not be achieved in the way people might imagine. Here it will probably mean arable monoculture and low intensity grass. We won’t be using water to feed “landscape features” or public goods as they call them.
Interesting times.

 

[Wombat]

Being underwater is always out of fashion

even more of a PIA is when everywhere else is getting wet, except you, that's the definition of a bitch I think I read

yeah the thing is our 6 months average temp for Oct to March is 6.55 deg C for this last winter with 91% humidity. So at 20m above sea level a few m of fall then rain in those months really just has to go through the drains as fast as possible

 

[Chae1]

It won't be a 76. Rained up till mid June in 76. More like 1984, cold and dry early on, and I think it continued dry over most of the summer. Used all our irrigation water early on to keep frosts off soft fruit flowers which didn't leave any water for later on.......

Yawn.

Don't feed the troll!

I hope the frost fudged his mung beans.

 

[7610 super q]

Don't feed the troll!

I hope the frost fudged his mung beans.

If he'd ploughed the ground up and done the job properly his mung beans ( ) would never have got frosted. He's only jealous that we're having a proper British drought rather than these limp todger wishy washy Aussie droughts.
Forgot to start my post with.........Errrr.

 

[Wooly]

We have had three summer droughts running here on Romney Marsh. Already looking very bare this year.

I think we only have 2 seasons now......... the dry season and the wet one

 

[delilah]

We have had three summer droughts running here on Romney Marsh. Already looking very bare this year.

I think we only have 2 seasons now......... the dry season and the wet one

A Greek student at Wye said that their Spring, which was short anyway, had disappeared and they now went from winter to summer. He said it would move north to us, that was 30 years ago, reckon he had it right.

 

[E_B]

There doesn't have to be skeletons strewn across the paddock and vultures circling for it to be a financial crisis on marginal land here, and its the bank balance that matters, not what it looks like outside or what kind of angle you put on it. If things carry on as they are this will be the third year in a row when too much rain in the winter, lack of rain in the spring and too much rain at harvest knocks upwards of the equivalent of a ton per acre off our yields in terms of raw yield, loss of quality or increased expenses. That ton per acre is what we live on, the rest covers the cost of growing it and overheads and we have done a lot to get those costs down with direct drilling where we can, moisture conservation etc. On top of that we have a government that couldn't care less about supporting crop production though they can find money for just about everything else. Never much help to build reservoir or anything else of real use to even out water supply, just regulatory obstacles in your path and prioritisation of the water supply for the leisure and tourism industry, for the golf course and racecourse.
So the upshot for me is if things don't pay this year then we are not going to subsidise the loss again from capital or from working off farm. The crop production side will be closed down or let out before we hit the financial buffers though I can't see many takers. Others might wish to burn capital on marginal land, we will not be doing that. Its financially unsustainable and makes no sense. The fact people continue to bid sky high prices for FBT's and pay £10k per acre for agricultural land is absolute madness in my view and won't end well if these climate extremes continue .... but what the heck do I know?

Excellent summary of UK farming.

 

[Pennine Ploughing]

It won't be a 76. Rained up till mid June in 76. More like 1984, cold and dry early on, and I think it continued dry over most of the summer. Used all our irrigation water early on to keep frosts off soft fruit flowers which didn't leave any water for later on.......

Yawn.

Spot on, it was a wet spring, and rained till mid June as you say, then no rain till end of September, potatoes were £4 a bag or £1.20 a stone in old money,
Now 1984 was a dry spring like this one, very little rain all summer,
Dry as dust sowing barley and turnips, some turnips were to so twice as first lot did not strike, carted water on to grass land for weeks with a tanker, but did not seem to do much good till the rain came, then that grass that was watered really took off and left unwatered grass 2 weeks behind,

Be thankful that there is little rain for the grain crops at the minute, as it will be a wet harvest, and less of a crop will be easier got and stand up better,
I got my tin hat on

 

[Northern territory]

Spot on, it was a wet spring, and rained till mid June as you say, then no rain till end of September, potatoes were £4 a bag or £1.20 a stone in old money,
Now 1984 was a dry spring like this one, very little rain all summer,
Dry as dust sowing barley and turnips, some turnips were to so twice as first lot did not strike, carted water on to grass land for weeks with a tanker, but did not seem to do much good till the rain came, then that grass that was watered really took off and left unwatered grass 2 weeks behind,

Be thankful that there is little rain for the grain crops at the minute, as it will be a wet harvest, and less of a crop will be easier got and stand up better,
I got my tin hat on

It’s an interesting point about being thankful for less in a wet harvest. I was only thinking earlier about the push for maximum tillers but in dry years you probably want less with better grain sites.

 

[Andrew K]

I was 10 in 1976 and can remember the brown grass,hard to think 10 yr olds now would be too bothered.wasnt it the prolonged heat that did the damage

Yes, hot windy and dry in June and July caused the crops to finish badly in 1976

 

[steveR]

I like that when ever we have a dry spell everyone brings up the 1976 line. It’s just a dry spell and it will rain in a minute don’t panic

(could be famous last words but I’m optimistic)

 

[Kidds]

Don't feed the troll!

I hope the frost fudged his mung beans.

What a f ucking arsehole of a comment that is.
The man has just lost the first crop after three years of drought and you want to wish that on him because he commented on people here whingeing because it hasn't rained for a fortnight. Complete and utter dickh ead and should be feckin ashamed of yourself ffs!

 

[Chae1]

What a f ucking arsehole of a comment that is.
The man has just lost the first crop after three years of drought and you want to wish that on him because he commented on people here whingeing because it hasn't rained for a fortnight. Complete and utter willy and should be feckin ashamed of yourself ffs!

If he can't take it, don't give it out.

 

[Kidds]

If he can't take it, don't give it out.

Did he ever wish ill on anyone?
If you don't like what he has to say put him on ignore but no need to kick anyone when they are down. What you said was just about the nastiest comment I ever saw anywhere, not just this forum. You do know the frost has f**ked his crop or you wouldn't have said it. Shite like that makes me ashamed tbh

 

[unlacedgecko]

Sooo . . .

if it doesn’t rain for two weeks it’s a disaster & the worst drought ever

if it rains for a week it’s a disaster & floods & everyone wants to put in drains & get rid of the water









doesn’t sound like there is much resilience in the system . . .

You ignorant Aussie bästard. There’s loads of resilience in the system, it arrives every Jan as a big cash payment from the tax payer.