Land Values

Clive

Staff Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lichfield
So how do you pay the capital back?

that’s the serviceability bit, ie out of business income / profit hopefully , the new asset adds to that income and profit

or if things don’t go to plan you take out a fresh loan

i could have taken a longer term loan but hopefully won’t need to
 

Neddy flanders

Member
BASE UK Member
if you can secure and service borrowing to buy safe or appreciating assets or invest in trade or business that returns margin above interest rate is a no brainier right now
love to know where i can invest in a business that gives a roi above interest rate. Either sellers wont sell such businesses or too many people try to buy them that you dont get a sniff or their too expensive.
 

willy

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Rutland
Land ownership brings opportunities (so does renting to some extent). People with money know this and so it does help support prices.

you never know what is around the corner and can struggle for years, but holding land something you don’t always expect can crop up......I’m still clinging on🤪
 

serf

Member
Location
warwickshire
Land ownership brings opportunities (so does renting to some extent). People with money know this and so it does help support prices.

you never know what is around the corner and can struggle for years, but holding land something you don’t always expect can crop up......I’m still clinging on🤪
Exactly , theres not going to be any random luck or houses built on a bit of paper with some numbers on it being shifted around by a spiv in london !
 

db9go

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Buckinghamshire
can borrow at 2% right now

money is really cheap

inflation is more than 2% so it’s actually free to borrow in relative terms
I agree money is cheap but at 2% that is still more than 1% over base and i think there is more fees these days as well with little add ons and the banks want more paper work than they use to
 

midlandslad

Member
Location
Midlands
Do you think land values will tick up behind the current commodity rally?

Are margin rates on loans increasing still or have they plateaued?

A spike in crop values won’t send land values up again in my opinion.

it all comes back to supply and demand. With values relatively static when supply is at the lowest level and if and when supply goes up there will need to be a match in demand or values will fall.

location Location location is key.

loan rates are similar to 6 months ago from what I see.
 

jendan

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Northumberland
A spike in crop values won’t send land values up again in my opinion.

it all comes back to supply and demand. With values relatively static when supply is at the lowest level and if and when supply goes up there will need to be a match in demand or values will fall.

location Location location is key.

loan rates are similar to 6 months ago from what I see.
I think you have got it wrong,at least as far as Northern England is concerned.There is hardly any supply,and what comes on is moving fairly quickly,at least at the guide price,and more often quite a bit more. Rent revues are also only going to go one way,at least in the short term,with increasing grain,and livestock prices. Land prices will only fall if there is a massive slump in commodity prices going forward,due to unrestricted cheaper imports,and changes to roll over taxation.
 

midlandslad

Member
Location
Midlands
I think you have got it wrong,at least as far as Northern England is concerned.There is hardly any supply,and what comes on is moving fairly quickly,at least at the guide price,and more often quite a bit more. Rent revues are also only going to go one way,at least in the short term,with increasing grain,and livestock prices. Land prices will only fall if there is a massive slump in commodity prices going forward,due to unrestricted cheaper imports,and changes to roll over taxation.

I agree with the above and it will come down to the levels of supply going forward. A lot of potential sellers will have been sitting on their hands waiting for greater certainty over Brexit, future of support and now COVID. All but the last are a lot clearer and in a couple of months with a vaccine getting rolled out so will be the latter.

Going forward there will be a lot more debt driven sales as farms have borrowed to the hilt, more retirement and death sales due to the age profile.
 
big question I'm asking myself at the moment do you think land values have dropped and if so do you think they will keep dropping

No. Still £20,000 - £22,000 per acre around here.
Brexit could of dropped values but I’m not so sure now, although there is time yet.
The proposed land tax / asset tax would drop it 25% if it comes in.
However I think any increases in value now will slow down dramatically.
 

midlandslad

Member
Location
Midlands
We have over the last 10 years seen exponential growth in land values and we cannot expect this to continue indefinitely.

In areas with non farming money strong values will continue to be achieved.

Unless £200+/tonne is here to stay commercial farming businesses will not have the capacity to buy big blocks of land especially with reducing support. In Lincolnshire I think that Savills said that only half the farms marketed in 2020 had been sold and this is a county with a well known buyer hoovering land up.

There are potential changes to CGT/IHT, however, it looks like they are going to be kicked down the road and this may generate supply as people look to make the most of the current CGT rates as they will only go one way.
 

jendan

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Northumberland
We have over the last 10 years seen exponential growth in land values and we cannot expect this to continue indefinitely.

In areas with non farming money strong values will continue to be achieved.

Unless £200+/tonne is here to stay commercial farming businesses will not have the capacity to buy big blocks of land especially with reducing support. In Lincolnshire I think that Savills said that only half the farms marketed in 2020 had been sold and this is a county with a well known buyer hoovering land up.

There are potential changes to CGT/IHT, however, it looks like they are going to be kicked down the road and this may generate supply as people look to make the most of the current CGT rates as they will only go one way.
What is the guide price £/acre of these farms that have not sold? Continuous Wheat/Blackgrass problem? Below sea level/prone to flooding? I guess its location as well. Anything up here,50 acres +,is being hoovered up almost immediately.
 

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