Milk Price Tracker

[lazy farmer]

LF We have not cleared intervention and have yet to see the effects of expansionists in Ireland and uk remember IRISH MILK is only 5-6hours away from most uk processing.

I'm not pretending its a sellers market but I don't believe the market is in the same state as it was last yr. the fundamentals are totally different. The market is not totally swamped with milk, the exchange rate is far far far more in our favour. Yes milk will be imported to stop prices rising too far but the potential to profit from it compared to 12 months ago is just not there, European production is lower. confidence from most of our processor is far higher than last yr when the were all either panicing like hell or exploiting over production which just isn't there this yr.
like I say I know nothing but I just don't get the doom and gloom. Oh and somebody paying 5p for spot on easter weekend does not a market make

 

[lazy farmer]

This volitity that seems to have become the norm is the ruinnation of small family dairy farms all that wil be left is these large dairy units

why?

 

[lazy farmer]

@lazyfarmer can you post a link to the futures if you have one, as i agree they are as good as anything for predicting.

sorry I don't the info I am privy to comes from my milk buyer. I will see whether it is possible to get it without having to pay!

 

[Iogijones]

Where and when will this cheese factory be opening in North Wales?

Bangor next year!

 

[Cowmangav]

The Dutch butter market has rowed back, according to Walkland in British Dairying article, but not a slump yet. When do all these cows have to be gone in the Netherlands?

Oh its sooner than I thought!

https://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/news/news...dutch-phosphate-reduction-plans/#.WKz-wjuLQ2w

 

[Cowmangav]

https://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/news/news...voluntary-reductions-–-for-some/#.WK0AfjuLQ2w

No sign of the Dutch cutting back yet.

 

[dinderleat]

why?

I would of said family farms are better placed to survive a down turn than a large mega farm.

 

[Kingofgrass]

I would of said family farms are better placed to survive a down turn than a large mega farm.

Totally agree with that comment

 

[Kingofgrass]

if there is going to be a shortage from sept-feb , why not put 1000 cows on for the winter
tell mr woodcock he can have 30,000l a day for six months when he needs it for 30ppl flat rate , then sell them
he can then buy his cheap milk through the spring and the cycle goes on

5ppl profit ?
250k profit , not bad for 6 months work

tin hat

Carl wouldn't do it,he pays market price then takes his 5%,why would he risk doing that? When he can't lose whenever taking his 5% plus 4p for powdering it.imo doing that is too risky what happens if you get tb ? Nice idea tho

 

[endeavour]

@lazy farmer
I admire your optimism but I am a realist and at the moment to get processors to contract forward , for milk to be supplied Apr-July1st at a sensible sustainable price is very difficult at present. There is an acknowledgement that product from intervention could undermine any product produced during the flush , this coupled with the belief that farmers have not fully grasped that the market is not infinite and supply and demand control the market, not doom and gloom just telling it as I have found it

 

[buffalo_soldier]

Arla up .38

 

[jockthethistle]

Up .38 to what !? jtt

 

[happycows]

27.45

 

[lazy farmer]

@lazy farmer
I admire your optimism but I am a realist and at the moment to get processors to contract forward , for milk to be supplied Apr-July1st at a sensible sustainable price is very difficult at present. There is an acknowledgement that product from intervention could undermine any product produced during the flush , this coupled with the belief that farmers have not fully grasped that the market is not infinite and supply and demand control the market, not doom and gloom just telling it as I have found it

Well those of us on a long term contract will be starting the season on a price far higher than last season that is undeniable.

 

[kp_n_plghng]

if there is going to be a shortage from sept-feb , why not put 1000 cows on for the winter
tell mr woodcock he can have 30,000l a day for six months when he needs it for 30ppl flat rate , then sell them
he can then buy his cheap milk through the spring and the cycle goes on

5ppl profit ?
250k profit , not bad for 6 months work

tin hat

I suppose that would work if you knew you could sell the cows for what you paid for them, but could you?

 

[jimmer]

I suppose that would work if you knew you could sell the cows for what you paid for them, but could you?

buy in calf cows in march for £800?
sell calves for £100
they ought to make £600 on the hook
dont want to sell them to go on and produce milk , that destroys your business plan to fill a gap in the autumn/winter

 

[Aircooled]

In the simplest of terms regarding milk price volatility we've had 2 booms and 3 busts in recent years. All of them affected world market. Booms seem to have been caused by china overspend and then bust. 3rd and biggest bust caused by quotas ending and related increases. My point is I'm not expecting a repeat of the above anytime soon therefore all the chat about increased volatility other than the seasonal,lacks evidence.

 

[cornishfarmer]

I would of said family farms are better placed to survive a down turn than a large mega farm.

i think what he meant was a family farm will plod on while a bigger more business orientated farm would sell the cows when price drops and buys when it picks up again

 

[lazy farmer]

i think what he meant was a family farm will plod on while a bigger more business orientated farm would sell the cows when price drops and buys when it picks up again

hmmmmm.

 

[Ducati899]

sell cows cheap when the price drops and then buy expensive when it goes back up …..not the best of business plans there imo