Milk Price Tracker

[frederick]

Just think what you can do with the Arla capital when/if you get it back.

Look long term not short term on price.

So what would you reccomend long term.

A company privately owned by a german operating a commodity liquid milk business with a 1% operating margin.

Or a european co-op with international markets with a potential brexit cloud hanging over it.

Of course personally I would argue that Arla edge it if they'd let you stay .

but I'm not sure how you can actually have much of a convincing argument for either giving a stronger long term price at the moment.

 

[lazy farmer]

It beggars belief.

 

[watcher72]

So what would you reccomend long term.

A company privately owned by a german operating a commodity liquid milk business with a 1% operating margin.

Or a european co-op with international markets with a potential brexit cloud hanging over it.

Of course personally I would argue that Arla edge it if they'd let you stay .

but I'm not sure how you can actually have much of a convincing argument for either giving a stronger long term price at the moment.

Arlas stand on is based on the stronger commodity market. Brands are mentioned as a strong campaigns not as the driver for better returns atm.
All it seems to be on TV at the eat well for less, or money saving expert saying switch to own brand whether that is yogurt ,milk or breakfast cereal.
Muller have their brands also but as you say are mainly a liquid business. I don't know what proportion is non liquid v liquid

Brexit, well that could be a significant issue dependant on what deal we do or don't get. Milk prices in the UK could rise significantly. Would Arlas European price rise as much? Would Muller pocket some of the rise if Arlas couldn't.

Me I'd stick where I was...short term and look again may be quarter 4 when things have settled down....hopefully!

 

[dogglercowman1]

Thanks for comments....brexit was another issue with arla saying not too long ago that a hard brexit would have a big impact on their business (our price)!
How much of our joining fee do you actually get back?

 

[pappuller]

Thanks for comments....brexit was another issue with arla saying not too long ago that a hard brexit would have a big impact on their business (our price)!
How much of our joining fee do you actually get back?

Have you not asked about any return of capital or invested monies ?

 

[dogglercowman1]

Obviously i know you get something back but it had nothing to do with my descision to move buyer and anything back at all will be a bonus.

 

[watcher72]

EU SMP prices are 31% higher YOY.

So much for EU stockpiling keeping a bottom in the market!

It like a black cloud hanging over our heads. Let the market find it's level and deal with it.

 

[lazy farmer]

EU SMP prices are 31% higher YOY.

So much for EU stockpiling keeping a bottom in the market!

It like a black cloud hanging over our heads. Let the market find it's level and deal with it.

Well I imagine after next Tuesdays smp auction (or was it this week?)
The price will be finally be market related.

 

[watcher72]

Well I imagine after next Tuesdays smp auction (or was it this week?)
The price will be finally be market related.

22,000 tonnes left for auction 5th Feb......then spring flush.....access to powdering across the water difficult.....exports on hold....imports curtailed short term....interesting times for the mainland?

 

[Milkcow365]

22,000 tonnes left for auction 5th Feb......then spring flush.....access to powdering across the water difficult.....exports on hold....imports curtailed short term....interesting times for the mainland?

What’s your predictions?

 

[bigw]

I hope all the SMP that has been sold out of intervention store has been used and isn't sitting in a store elsewhere in the world!

 

[watcher72]

What’s your predictions?

Could go either way.

Looking at total price movements in the last 12 months.
Arla manufacturing-0.76ppl
Barbers -1.5ppl
Crediton-2.25ppl
DC -1.6pll
FM liquid +0.75ppl
Muller direct -1.5ppl
Paynes-1.5ppl
Wyke -1.5ppl

All from different starting points but not all are equal. Figures are feb 18 to jan19 from AHDB website.

 

[lazy farmer]

I’ll have a go prices will rise as demand is apparently outstripping supply.
Brexit won’t matter a damn

 

[Beef farmer]

Could go either way.

Looking at total price movements in the last 12 months.
Arla manufacturing-0.76ppl
Barbers -1.5ppl
Crediton-2.25ppl
DC -1.6pll
FM liquid +0.75ppl
Muller direct -1.5ppl
Paynes-1.5ppl
Wyke -1.5ppl

All from different starting points but not all are equal. Figures are feb 18 to jan19 from AHDB website.

Go first milk

 

[lazy farmer]

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/eu-has-sold-99-of-smp-intervention-stocks-over-last-3-years/
Nearly!

 

[coomoo]

Could go either way.

Looking at total price movements in the last 12 months.
Arla manufacturing-0.76ppl
Barbers -1.5ppl
Crediton-2.25ppl
DC -1.6pll
FM liquid +0.75ppl
Muller direct -1.5ppl
Paynes-1.5ppl
Wyke -1.5ppl

All from different starting points but not all are equal. Figures are feb 18 to jan19 from AHDB website.

Muller compared to Arla I could maybe see considering their exposure to liquid but dc surely shouldn’t be a kick in the arse off. How long will muller put up with their current performance will be a thought aswell now

 

[Iogijones]

In the first 9 months of last year 8 dairy farm went out of milk, the last 3 months 116 went out of milk!

 

[Beef farmer]

In the first 9 months of last year 8 dairy farm went out of milk, the last 3 months 116 went out of milk!

How many went in? Serious amount. All of the lower yield sort tho. Only thing worse than a new entrant is a new entrant spring calver.

 

[Iogijones]

How many went in? Serious amount. All of the lower yield sort tho. Only thing worse than a new entrant is a new entrant spring calver. [emoji57]

I think its 116 less dairy farms, 30% cows will be culled and rest will be sold to other farms.

 

[Beef farmer]

I think its 116 less dairy farms, 30% cows will be culled and will still be milking somewhere!

30% cows will what sorry?